Showing posts with label 1873. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 1873. Show all posts

1/19/10

1873

In the late 1860’s
central European government supported lenders
issued debt for municipal, residential and commercial construction
as amplified tales of profit, leverage and real estate values increased
creating a credit induced building boom
until Britain shifted wheat imports from Central Europe and Russia
to lower priced grain from the American Midwest after 1870
followed by other foods, kerosene and livestock


Economic growth stalled
after The Coinage Act of 1873 was signed into law on February 12th
initiating a gold standard by eliminating silver coin production
deflating American money supplies


Vienna’s stock market crashed in May 1873
causing bank to bank lending declines, loss of confidence
financial distress, and higher interest rates

In September 1873, Jay Cooke & Company
a major component of the United States banking establishment
found itself unable to market several million dollars
in Northern Pacific Railway bonds


As Cooke was about to swing a $300 million government loan
…reports circulated that his firm's credit had become nearly worthless


On September 18, the firm declared bankruptcy


Wikipedia


After speculators built beyond utilization capacity
indebted American railroad related companies began defaulting
and US stock markets crashed in late September 1873
as hundreds of banks closed


Those with enough capital reserves
like Andrew Carnegie and John D Rockefeller
acquired bankrupt businesses for substantial discounts


As unemployment rose, business leaders advocated protectionism
elected officials identified and targeted scapegoats
while the working poor protested, embraced religion established unions
and rioted

7/10/09

What could happen in some south east Asian countriesif a new generation of middle class college graduatescan’t find jobs?






There is an element in the readjustment of our financial system


more important than currency


more important than gold


and that is the confidence of the people


 


Franklin Delano Roosevelt


Replaced Herbert Hoover as US President in 1932


 after government intervention failed to mitigate The Great Depression


 


If unemployed Americans aren’t buying


what unemployed Chinese aren’t making


have more than 6 million newly unemployed Americans


left at least 30 million Chinese workers unemployed?


 


Did the leaders of most emerging economies


indirectly confiscate their citizens’ savings


by lending money to developed economies


to keep currency exchange rates relatively low


to encourage more sales of manufactured goods?


 


Ponzi finance units must increase its outstanding debt


 in order to meet its financial obligations


 


 A transition occurs over the course of an expansion


as increasingly risky positions are validated by the booming economy


that renders the built in margins of error superfluous


 encouraging adoption of riskier positions


 


 Eventually, either financing costs rise


 or income comes in below expectations


leading to defaults on payment commitments


 


 Hyman Minsky



 


Have American legislators and the Federal Reserve


been abusing the dollar’s status as a reserve currency


to avoid overtly raising domestic taxation


by covertly taxing US dollar denominated assets like oil


by over-printing money?



 

6/28/09

At what point do bailouts do more harm than good? II

There's something fundamental about the need for failure


 


We're tinkering with the genetic DNA of a capitalist society


 


Syd Finkelstein


Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions


 


If the natural cycle of laissez faire capitalism


revolves between risk and aversion


what should happen if government intervention perverts the process


to forestall short term economic pain?


 


If the government selectively subsidizes some businesses


could those looking to purchase homes, cars and energy


be obliged to pay higher prices and taxes to fund the subsidies?


 


The unprecedented aid to the private sector


 may also unleash new problems


the way antibiotics have generated stronger strains of bacteria


 


Before “failure” became an unspeakable word


entrepreneurs understood that most business ventures in America fail


producing acute lessons


that have helped make America fabulously prosperous


 


In the 1870s, for instance, there was a five-year depression


followed by a historic era of mechanization


that destroyed old industries and generated new ones


at a pace nobody had ever seen


 


Downsize the biggest firms


until they are small enough to let fail


 


Once they’re out of the way


better-run firms will be able to take their place


and free enterprise will no longer come with a government warranty


 


How Bailouts Can Butcher Capitalism


Rick Newman


US News & World Report


 


Does government intervention delay real recovery?

3/7/09

Is the government penalizing well run businessesby rewarding poorly managed firmswith taxpayer money?





The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly


 is to fill the world with fools


 


Herbert Spencer


Coined the phrase “Survival of the fittest”


 


If the government selectively subsidizes some business


are those looking to purchase homes, cars and energy


obliged to pay higher prices and taxes to fund the subsidies?


 


Did some economic and political leaders


bail themselves out of mistakes


with trillions of debt and newly created money


handed down to the unaware of following generations?


 


We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation


with some of the problems that have taken place here


 


Henry Paulson


 



Naked Capitalism, Willem Buiter


The Wall Street Journal, Calculated Risk, Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Big Picture , Felix Salmon, 

Is the government penalizing well run businessesby rewarding poorly managed firmswith taxpayer money?





The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly


 is to fill the world with fools


 


Herbert Spencer


Coined the phrase “Survival of the fittest”


 


If the government selectively subsidizes some business


are those looking to purchase homes, cars and energy


obliged to pay higher prices and taxes to fund the subsidies?


 


Did some economic and political leaders


bail themselves out of mistakes


with trillions of debt and newly created money


handed down to the unaware of following generations?


 


We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation


with some of the problems that have taken place here


 


Henry Paulson


 



Naked Capitalism, Willem Buiter


The Wall Street Journal, Calculated Risk, Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Big Picture , Felix Salmon, 

3/2/09

dshort and Henry Blodget

four-bears-large



Given that we just had the highest peak in history by a mile


 it doesn't seem absurd


to think that we might be headed for the lowest trough in history by a mile


 


If the stock market stops falling


and earnings eventually begin to grow again


we would be close to the bottom


 


The market could simply move sideways for five to 10 years


while earnings growth gradually reduced the price-to-earnings ratio


to the 5 to 8-times range


 


This is what happened in the 1970s


 


Henry Blodget


How Low Can The Market Go?


Clusterstock


If some equity markets overshot on the way down


after financial bubbles in burst 1873, 1901, 1929, 1966 and 2000


and rose when abhorred



could some trends tend to last longer and/or end sooner than many think?

dshort and Henry Blodget

four-bears-large



Given that we just had the highest peak in history by a mile


 it doesn't seem absurd


to think that we might be headed for the lowest trough in history by a mile


 


If the stock market stops falling


and earnings eventually begin to grow again


we would be close to the bottom


 


The market could simply move sideways for five to 10 years


while earnings growth gradually reduced the price-to-earnings ratio


to the 5 to 8-times range


 


This is what happened in the 1970s


 


Henry Blodget


How Low Can The Market Go?


Clusterstock


If some equity markets overshot on the way down


after financial bubbles in burst 1873, 1901, 1929, 1966 and 2000


and rose when abhorred



could some trends tend to last longer and/or end sooner than many think?

2/27/09

How many foreign investors who used to currently want to purchase American residential or commercial mortgage debt?

 LOANINV


 


If the US financial industry is owed trillions


what could happen if the few who think there’s a problem


become many believing there’s a crisis?


In every deliberation


we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations


 


Great Law of the Iroquois Nation


 

How many foreign investors who used to currently want to purchase American residential or commercial mortgage debt?

 LOANINV


 


If the US financial industry is owed trillions


what could happen if the few who think there’s a problem


become many believing there’s a crisis?


In every deliberation


we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations


 


Great Law of the Iroquois Nation