The following is a culmination of more than 13 years of ongoing research that has provided a way to discover how to navigate what “is”, and offers a vehicle for others to find answers to questions they may or may not have thought of.

Insights have been accumulated while working as a financial advisor
and portfolio manager through The Asian Currency Crisis, Y2K, The Dot.com Bubble,
9/11, The Financial Crisis of 2008-9, and continue
as subsequent geopolitical, military, economic, fiscal and monetary events occur.

What you may think I'm thinking isn’t necessarily what I'm thinking.

George Hartzman

If most were to comprehend the “realities” of what may actually be,
as opposed to what most currently think is,
an entirely different set of counterintuitive circumstances could emerge.

Effectiveness through understanding could be exponential,
as long as most continue to not know what they could.

The quotes provide context to increase comprehension,
with the fewest words in the shortest time.

Format originally conceived
to conform to financial institution marketing compliance guidelines
to teach CPAs, attorneys and investors
economics, investment planning, philosophy and business ethics.

Writing style is kind of like poetry, only enigma cocooned in inquiry
surrounded by the random chaos of Socratic thought,
which is not supposed to be easy.

The end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started

and know the place for the first time.

T. S. Eliot

If the present embodies the past and future,
rational analysis maximizes present accomplishment, and chances of success are better
for those who more accurately prognosticate the farthest into the future,
the who and why to find first is you,
before the when and how to achieve what for the longest time with the least risk.

The questions are puzzle pieces designed to initiate debate,
encourage independent verification and promote self examination.

People are usually more convinced by reasons they discovered themselves

than by those found by others.

Blaise Pascal

If what others think is true may not be what you do,
interpretations should differ.

An 8 Hour, $100 CPA CPE with George Hartzman in Greensboro, on August19, 2010

You are cordially invited to an Eight Hour,
Intermediate / Advanced CPA CPE Workshop entitled:
 

What Could Happen
After What May Happen Next 

Critical analysis and debate for CPAs
in public accounting and industry.
 

Topics: An overview of current geopolitical and economic events, North Carolina and local municipal budget and finance highlights, America and the States, Bailout, Greece, Europe, Social Security, The 2009 Financial Report of the U.S. Government, Federal Reserve, FASB, Healthcare Ethics, Tax Ethics, Business and Regulatory Ethics, Hedge and High Frequency Trading
 

Think Professional Education is registered with the North Carolina State Board of CPA Examiners as a sponsor of continuing professional education. Please note that these sessions do not satisfy the annual ethics requirements for North Carolina CPAs.
 

George Hartzman, President of Think Professional Education specializes in economics and financial ethics and has taught North Carolina CPA CPE for ten years. George is the author of Think, What to Do Now, Think, Investor Guide, Think Retirement Plan Edition, Fiduciary Guide, Questions for Investors and Questions for America, which are used to teach CPE and adult education.
 

Each Attendee with recieve a dated, numbered, and signed copy of What Could Happen After What May Happen Next

Mr. Hartzman has worked in the financial services industry as a financial advisor and portfolio manager and holds degrees in Communications, Philosophy and Public Relations from Frostburg State University.

Lunch and refreshments catered by Lox, Stock and Bagel

Seating limited to 30 attendees 

Lecture Format. No advanced preparation or prerequisites necessary. Complaints or comments regarding registered sponsors may be addressed to the North Carolina State Board of CPA Examiners, PO Box 12827, Raleigh, NC 27605. Each CPA must exercise judgment in selecting courses and claiming credit for only those courses that contribute to the CPA’s professional competence and meet the standards  found in 21 NCAC 8G .0400 Based on 50 minute hours

Please click button to register in the left column.

Financial Bubbles

How to Game Obamacare

"Under the Affordable Care Act, eligibility for ...subsidized health insurance through the Exchanges will be calculated using a household’s Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI).

Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) includes Wages, Taxable interest, Taxable amount of pensions, annuity or IRA distributions, some Social Security benefits, Business income, Capital gains, Ordinary dividends, Alimony received, Real estate rental income, etc...

Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) deducts 401(k) and 403(b) savings, Certain self-employed expenses, Student loan interest, Educator expenses, IRA deductions, Moving expenses, Penalty on early withdrawal of savings, Alimony paid, Domestic production activities, etc...

http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/healthcare/MAGI_summary13.pdf
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According to Kaiser's Family Foundation's Subsidiy Calculator, an average US family of four making $88,000 MAGI, would not recieve an Obamacare subsidy for a Silver plan costing $8,290 per year.

http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/
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.
If both parents are over 50 years old, contributing the maximum $6,500 each to a traditional IRA would lower taxable compensation for the above family making $88,000 by $13,000, leaving a MAGI of $75,000, which would create an Obamacare subsidy of $1,165 per year.
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If the $13,000 IRA contributions are not taxed at a hypothetical 25% Federal income tax rate, the Federal government would have to pay out $1,165 plus lose $3,250 in taxes that otherwise would have been recieved.

$1,165 + $3,250 = $4,415 net loss to Federal tax revenues.
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If 20 million households do the same thing to qualify for Obamacare subsidies, the Federal government could lose about $88,300,000,000 in tax revenues by the end of 2013's tax season.

George v $WFC Part One, Scene Two; Hartzman emails to @MTaibbi on $JPM's #JamieDimon, with some Bloomberg's @bobivry

From: George Hartzman... To: Matthew Taibbi, Rolling Stone Magazine

"Insider Trading

Robert S. Keebler on "Charitable Remainder Trust and the 3.8% Medicare Surtax"

"The 3.8% Medicare surtax on net investment income is set to take effect on Jan. 1, 2013.

Charitable Remainder Trust and the 3.8% Medicare Surtax

Surtax etc... Chart/Table

On November 30, 2012, the US Treasury issued treasury regulations
addressing...the new 3.8% healthcare surtax.

...there are two urgent planning opportunities that are important to CPAs and their clients.

First, to the extent that income can be accelerated in 2012, this will save 3.8%.

For example, harvesting gains, triggering accrued interest, income and dividends,
accelerated rents and other royalties will all save on the surtax.

Likewise, deferring investment expenses into 2013
will provide an income tax deduction against the surtax, saving an extra 3.8%.

This savings does not include any savings that would occur
by virtue of any increase in the base tax rate.

...there is an urgent and immediate planning opportunity
for existing charitable remainder trusts.

A CRT is not taxed directly, but distributions from a CRT are taxed to beneficiaries
under ...section 664, often called the WIFO, W-I-F-O, worst-in, first-out method of accounting.

Distributions from charitable remainder trusts will be subject to a 3.8% surtax.

...distributions of net investment income from a CRT will be taxable to the beneficiaries.

...income that was realized and recognized prior to December 31, 2012
will be grandfathered from the surtax.

Deferring loss and expenses into 2013 will also reduce the tax burden on future distributions.

The action steps needed for a charitable remainder trust
are to harvest long-term capital gains in 2012,
accelerate interest, dividends and other income in 2012, defer harvesting losses into 2013,
and defer expenses into 2013.

By taking these important steps
you will likely reduce your clients’ future exposure to the 3.8% healthcare surtax.

On behalf of the PFP Division of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants,
this has been Bob Keebler."

Robert S. Keebler, CPA, MST, DEP, Partner, Keebler & Associates, LLP

If Peoples Bank of North Carolina's CEO Tony Wolfe decided to sign off on SEC reports stating Federal Reserve Borrowings, did BB&T?

It appears that the N.C. Office of the Commissioner of Banks (NCCOB)

oversees the following banks

who used Federal Reserve [apparently not all] Secret Liquidity Lifelines

The Bank had $5.0 million in borrowings
from the Federal Reserve Bank (“FRB”) at December 31, 2008.

This borrowing was a 28-day Term Auction Facility loan
at an interest rate of 0.28% which matured in January 2009.

If J. P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon purchased stock on 10/21/2008, how were the shares not purchased with Insider Information?

DIMON JAMES

J P MORGAN CHASE & CO [ JPM ]

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000122520808016595/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
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.
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The Fed’s Secret Liquidity Lifelines

J P MORGAN CHASE & CO [ JPM ]

James T. Ahler - Registered Lobbyist, Matthew Eisley - Registered Lobbyist and B. Davis Horne, Jr. - Registered Lobbyist

Mr. James T. Ahler, CAE
NCACPA, Raleigh, NC

Jim Ahler, CAE,
is the CEO of the North Carolina Association of Certified Public Accountants.

Prior to joining NCACPA in 1988,
Jim served as executive director of the State Board of Accountancy
in Louisville, Kentucky.

While in Kentucky, Jim was active on various national committees
of the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA).

He was also a consultant to NASBA
for strategic planning and committee management.

Jim is an active member of the Association Executives of North Carolina (AENC).

He is also active in the CPA Society Executives Association (CPA/SEA),
a national association of state CPA association executives.

Lobbyist Information...
Name: James T. Ahler 
Raleigh, NC 27623
Registered with these Principals...
Filings Term Status Firm Principal
2012 Active  North Carolina Association of CPAs 
2011 Active  North Carolina Association of CPAs
2010 Active North Carolina Association of CPAs
2009 Active North Carolina Association of CPAs
2008 Active  North Carolina Association of CPAs
2007 Active  North Carolina Association of CPAs
2005-2006 Active NC Assocaition of CPAs
2003-2004 Active NC Assocaition of CPAs
2001-2002 Active NC Assocaition of CPAs
1997-1998 Active NC Assocaition of CPAs ACPA, NC
1995-1996 Active NC Assocaition of CPAs
1993-1994 Active NC Assocaition of CPAs

http://www.secretary.state.nc.us/Lobbyists/Lobbyist.aspx?PId=8143885
.
.
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Lobbyist Information...
Name: Matthew Eisley 
Raleigh, NC 27601-2611
Registered with these Principals...

2012 Active Nationwide Insurance & Affiliates
2012 Active North Carolina Association of CPAs 
2012 Active North Carolina Economic Development Group
2012 Active North Carolina Medical Society
2012 Active Waste Management Carolinas
2011 Active FMR LLC (Fidelity Investments)
2011 Active North Carolina Association of CPAs
2011 Active North Carolina Economic Development Group
2011 Active North Carolina Medical Society
2011 Active North Carolina Travel and Tourism Coalition
2010 Active Abbott Laboratories
.
.
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Lobbyist Information...
Name: B. Davis Horne, Jr.
Raleigh, NC 27601-2611
Registered with these Principals...

2012 Active American International Group, Inc. 
2012 Active FMR LLC
2012 Active North Carolina Association of CPAs 
2012 Active North Carolina Economic Development Group
2012 Active North Carolina Financial Services Association 
2012 Active North Carolina Medical Society
2012 Active Waste Management Carolinas
2011 Active Abbott Laboratories
2011 Active American International Group, Inc. 
2011 Active Nationwide Insurance & Affiliates
2011 Active North Carolina Association of CPAs
2011 Active North Carolina Financial Services Association
2010 Active American International Group, Inc.

A few North Carolina CPA Rules

A CPA shall not knowingly violate any state or federal tax laws or regulations

in handling the ...business affairs of an employer or client...

21 NCAC 08N .0207 VIOLATION OF TAX LAWS

A CPA shall not express an opinion that financial statements
are presented in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles
if such statements contain any departure from an accounting principle
which has a material effect on the statements taken as a whole...

21 NCAC 08N .0209 ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES

A CPA shall not engage in deceptive conduct.

Deception includes fraud or misrepresentation and representations or omissions

which a CPA either knows or should know have a capacity or tendency to deceive.

Deceptive conduct is prohibited whether or not anyone has been actually deceived.

Prohibited conduct under this Section includes but is not limited to deception in:

...creating false or unjustified expectations of favorable results;

...falsifying a review, report, or any required program or checklist of any peer review program.

21 ncac 08n .0202 DECEPTIVE CONDUCT PROHIBITED

A CPA shall not engage in conduct discreditable to the accounting profession.

Discreditable conduct includes but is not limited to:

acts that reflect adversely on the CPA's honesty,
integrity, trustworthiness, good moral character, or fitness as a CPA in other respects;

21 ncac 08n .0203 DISCREDITABLE CONDUCT PROHIBITED

A CPA and CPA firm shall be responsible for assuring compliance with the rules

...by anyone who is the CPA's partner, fellow shareholder, member, officer, director,

licensed employee, unlicensed employee or agent or unlicensed principal,

or by anyone whom the CPA supervises.

A CPA or CPA firm shall not permit others

(including affiliated entities) to carry out on the CPA's behalf,

with or without compensation,

acts which if carried out by the CPA would be a violation of these Rules.

21 NCAC 08N .0103 RESPONSIBILITY FOR COMPLIANCE BY OTHERS

The Federal Reserve

Mark Pittman (October 25, 1957 - November 25, 2009) was a financial journalist covering corporate finance and derivative markets.

The Federal Reserve

CFA Asset Manager Code of Professional Conduct: General Principles of Conduct

Violation of the CFA Code of Ethics & Standards of Professional Conduct?

If budget deficits were a dominant 2010 campaign issue, why did congress pass and the president sign a $900 billion bigger deficit about a month later?

Sometimes people mistake the way I talk

for what I am thinking.

Idi Amin

If Michael Bloomberg made 5% per year on $20 billion, and paid half his taxes on long term capital gaines and half on dividend interest, will he "earn" an extra $295 million over the two years with Obama’s Tax Deal?

"President Barack Obama should tell Democrats angered by his compromises with Republicans

on extending tax cuts to “suck it up,” New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said.

“He says, ‘Look, this is what I did, this is the best I can do. Suck it up,’” Bloomberg said,

when asked how Obama should deal with Democrats angered by the tax measure

and other compromises with Republicans."

Molly Peterson and Gopal Ratnam

If Michael Bloomberg is worth about $20 billion,
and makes about $1 billion per year on long term capitol gaines and dividend interest
could he save about $295,470,320 over two years if Obama’s Tax Deal passes?

.......…………….............…………..…Tax Cuts Extended…………….Tax Cuts Expired

Dividends and LT Capital Gains...........$1,000,000,000…………………$1,000,000,000?

Tax Liability…………………................…..$149,948,250 ………………….$297,683,410?

Average Tax Rate………........................…..14.99%……………….....……. 29.77%?

$297,683,410 – $149,948,250 = about $147,735,160 x 2 years
= about $295,470,320?

On Oil Production, Consumption and Light Sweet and Heavy Sour Crude

Before we started using it, there was about 76 cubic miles of oil on Earth,
or a sphere with a diameter of 5.26 miles, about as tall as the tallest mountain on Earth,
of which since 1859, we have consumed about half.

If Earth’s diameter is about 7,960 miles and the diameter of all the oil is about 5.26 miles,
and about half of it is gone, is less than ½ of 1% of Earth is made of oil?

In 2000, the difference between non-OPEC light sweet and sour crude oil production of 66 mb/d
was 41% light sweet and 59% sour.

mb/d = million barrels per day

From 2000 to 2004, non-OPEC light sweet production fell 3.26 mb/d, from 27.06 mb/d to 23.8 mb/d.

34% to 67%, light sweet to sour.
3. Oil producing nations export petroleum products only after domestic needs are met.

A ‘2000’ nation producing 5 mb/d, consuming 1.0 mb/d of light sweet can export 1.05 mb/d of light sweet. (41% light sweet production)

If a ‘2004’ nation’s total oil production increased 6% to 5.3 mb/d, like non-OPEC production above,
and total light sweet production dropped to 34% while domestic consumption rose to 1.1 mb/d,
then light sweet exports fell about 33.3%, to 0.7 mb/d.

If between 2000 and 2004, non-OPEC lost 3.26 mb/d as OPEC added 1 mb/d of light sweet,
did total global light sweet production fall to about 2.26 mb/d?
If total oil production rises or stays the same
while light sweet production falls while consumption rises in oil producing nations
and China and India…?

On Peak Oil: Could long term economic recovery be limited to available and/or affordable energy supplies?

Branson warns that oil crunch: Energy crisis threatens to be more serious than credit crunch

Sir Richard Branson and fellow leading businessmen will warn ministers this week that the world is running out of oil and faces an oil crunch within five years.

…Other British executives who will support the warning include Ian Marchant, chief executive of Scottish and Southern Energy group, and Brian Souter, chief executive of transport operator Stagecoach.

Their call for urgent government action comes amid a wider debate on the issue and follows allegations by insiders at the International Energy Agency that the organization had deliberately underplayed the threat of so-called "peak oil" to avoid panic on the stock markets.

…The issue came up at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos where Thierry Desmarest, chief executive of the Total oil company in France, also broke ranks. The world could struggle to produce more than 95m barrels of oil a day in future, he said – 10% above present levels. "The problem of peak oil remains."

Chris Skrebowski, an independent oil consultant who prepared parts of the peak oil report for Branson and others, said that only recession is holding back a crisis…Skrebowski believes that Britain is particularly vulnerable because it has gone from being a net exporter of oil, gas and coal to being an importer, and is becoming increasingly exposed to competition for supplies.

The question of peak oil came to centre stage last November when a whistleblower told the Guardian the figures provided by the IEA – and used by the UK and US governments for much of their planning scenarios – were inaccurate.

"The IEA in 2005 was predicting that oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030, although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this."

Terry Macalister
guardian.co.uk

Has everything happened the way you think it did?

You are so intent that you believe
only what you believe that you believe
that you remain utterly blind to what you really believe
without believing that you believe it

Orson Scott Card

Would you rather be happy
or know?

You take the blue pill
the story ends
you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe

You take the red pill
you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes

Morpheus
The Matrix

If there were thousands
of relatively independent media companies in the mid 1900’s
~50 by the 1980’s
and less than 10 after 2000
mostly owned by conglomerates with conflicting interests
dependent on legislative initiatives for regulatory concerns
and advertisers and political campaigns for profit
is most mainstream information relatively more objective or less?

Power in America…
is control of the means of communication

Theodore White
Political Journalist

Did the founding fathers want the communications industry
to keep an eye on the government for the people
or an eye on the people for the government?