Guilford County and North Carolina Total Covid-19 Cases and Deaths YTD; What may likely happen next

 Guilford County Covid-19

Total Cases;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Total Deaths;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Data back to September 26, 2020;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Guilford County Deaths by Age;

https://www.guilfordcountync.gov/our-county/human-services/health-department/coronavirus-covid-19-info/covid-19-data

North Carolina Cases YTD;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box

North Carolina Deaths YTD;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box

Guilford County CV Hospitalizations YTD;

https://www.guilfordcountync.gov/our-county/human-services/health-department/coronavirus-covid-19-info/covid-19-data

Waves from Spanish Flu;

Pre Air Conditioning Days = US had uptick in hottest Summer weather

The influenza pandemic in 1918 and 1919 occurred in three waves, killing about 675,000 in the United States and between 20 to 100 million worldwide.

The first wave eased during the Summer of 1918, which looks to be similar to current COVID-19 events, taking the effect of 2020's Summer time air conditioning had into account. 

In the Autumn of 1918, the second biggest wave began, consistent with the onset of Winter/Flu Season in the Northern Hemisphere with lower humidity and temperatures. 

2020's Fall outbreak looks to be less severe than 1918, as Covid appears to leave younger patients with much fewer complications and morbidity, as well as better wide spread social distancing and elder seclusion.

The third wave hit in the first half of 1919, and by the summer the pandemic relatively ended as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.

COVID-19 “established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 North latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C [41 to 51 F] and 47-79 percent humidity)";

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

If known infections retard significantly enough as asymptomatic spread goes relatively undetected in warmer weather, a new wave could hit the areas around the yellow with reported infections spreading through next Fall/Winter/Flu season.

Dropping amounts of water vapor in cold, dry Winter air makes it easier for Covid to become airborne. 

30 year average temperatures between 1988-2018 October through May indicate when a larger second wave will likely occur. Areas around Yellow to Green are most likely to experience higher case loads.

October;

https://gvn.org/sars-cov-2-response-efforts/

November;

December;

January;

February;

March;

Covid-19 should start dissipating for North Carolina by April;

An 8 Hour, $100 CPA CPE with George Hartzman in Greensboro, on August19, 2010

You are cordially invited to an Eight Hour,
Intermediate / Advanced CPA CPE Workshop entitled:
 

What Could Happen
After What May Happen Next 

Critical analysis and debate for CPAs
in public accounting and industry.
 

Topics: An overview of current geopolitical and economic events, North Carolina and local municipal budget and finance highlights, America and the States, Bailout, Greece, Europe, Social Security, The 2009 Financial Report of the U.S. Government, Federal Reserve, FASB, Healthcare Ethics, Tax Ethics, Business and Regulatory Ethics, Hedge and High Frequency Trading
 

Think Professional Education is registered with the North Carolina State Board of CPA Examiners as a sponsor of continuing professional education. Please note that these sessions do not satisfy the annual ethics requirements for North Carolina CPAs.
 

George Hartzman, President of Think Professional Education specializes in economics and financial ethics and has taught North Carolina CPA CPE for ten years. George is the author of Think, What to Do Now, Think, Investor Guide, Think Retirement Plan Edition, Fiduciary Guide, Questions for Investors and Questions for America, which are used to teach CPE and adult education.
 

Each Attendee with recieve a dated, numbered, and signed copy of What Could Happen After What May Happen Next

Mr. Hartzman has worked in the financial services industry as a financial advisor and portfolio manager and holds degrees in Communications, Philosophy and Public Relations from Frostburg State University.

Lunch and refreshments catered by Lox, Stock and Bagel

Seating limited to 30 attendees 

Lecture Format. No advanced preparation or prerequisites necessary. Complaints or comments regarding registered sponsors may be addressed to the North Carolina State Board of CPA Examiners, PO Box 12827, Raleigh, NC 27605. Each CPA must exercise judgment in selecting courses and claiming credit for only those courses that contribute to the CPA’s professional competence and meet the standards  found in 21 NCAC 8G .0400 Based on 50 minute hours

Please click button to register in the left column.

Kieth Brown; "Crony Capitalism and Local Developer Roy Carroll Red Flags on This American Express Incentive Deal, More Info. and REPOST"

UPDATE 8-17-2010: The Greensboro City Council meeting set for 8-17-2010 has this as a part of the agenda:

18. Ordinance annexing territory to the corporate limits located at 401-421 Birch Creek Road – 145.502 acres. (Council District: nearest District 1) (roll call vote)

Looks like Roy Carroll is going to sail this one through without any questions from the local media on just how did they pick his land for this project. Was there any other properties in Guilford County involved in this deal to land the project which was code named "Project Doublewide"  .or was he and Richard Beard the only ones involved with this transaction.

Justin Catanoso from the Triad Business Journal had this as a title "AMEX may have offset tax break for land costs CLICKHERE . Here is a few quotes from post

Sources familiar with the negotiations say American Express pressed for reductions in per-acre costs before agreeing in principle (the deal hasn’t closed yet) to acquire about 100 acres in both Rock Creek Center and the new Birch Creek Corporate Park in unincorporated Guilford County

Richard Beard, a principal with Simpson Schulman & Beard, the brokers for Rock Creek, declines to detail the discussions that took place between his group and the agents representing American Express, which were led by Greg Wilson of the local C.B. Richard Ellis office. While Wilson declined to comment, Beard did say: “We had to make concessions toward the end of the negotiations.”

The code name played on the fact that not one, but two suitable sites were essential to seal the deal.

“Each location was very dependent on the other,” Beard says. “It was both sites or nothing. All negotiations were separate, but any time I saw Roy around town in the past few weeks, I’d ask him how things were going.”

Roy Carroll, one of Greensboro’s top developers and president of The Carroll Cos., declines to discuss the negotiations with American Express regarding the land it will buy in Birch Creek Corporate Park. As the location for the redundant data storage capacity, it is likely that construction on the estimated 150,000-square-foot backup facility won’t start for two years or more.

Can't wait to hear the cheerleaders at the Greensboro City Council meeting on 8-17-2010 talk about this project and not one of them will ask the question on why did they pick these properties from the most connected crony capilalist we have ever seen in Roy Carroll along with another member in Richard Beard who is a war memorial coliseum commission member and also the head cheerleader for coliseum director Matt Brown.

Below is the REPOST from April 21, 2010 and with one of the biggest comments periods we have ever had on Triadwatch.

________________________________________________________________________________
One of the biggest tax incentives deals ever proposed in Guilford County and Greensboro is American Express potential data center in the eastern part of the county.
It appears that Mr. Dan Lynch, Greensboro Economic Development Alliance President, who should have been involved in showing sites to AMEX, and Roy Carroll, owner of one of the properties, have shared the title of "Board Member" at the Greensboro Partnership.


Let's give a brief definition of Crony Capitalism:

What Does Crony Capitalism Mean?

A description of capitalist society as being based on the close relationships between businessmen and the state. Instead of success being determined by a free market and the rule of law, the success of a business is dependent on the favoritism that is shown to it by the ruling government in the form of tax breaks, government grants and other incentives.From Investopedia CLICKHERE

This definition fits local developer Roy Carroll to a T.

Here is what is being reported from the Greensboro News & Record CLICKHERE

"The American Express project would involve two buildings on two parcels in eastern Guilford: about 100 acres in Rock Creek Center and part of a 700-acre tract owned by developer Roy Carroll near Knox Road and Birch Creek Road.

The Carroll property would be annexed into Greensboro, allowing the city to share in the incentive offering and benefit from the promised boost to the tax base."

As we have stated in the past that local developer Roy Carroll had his own political action committee giving thousands of dollars to the campaigns of plenty of local politicians in Greensboro and Guilford County. Pay to play at it's best.

Here is a list from a few years ago of Greensboro City Council members and the closed out account of Roy Carroll's Political Action Committee called North Carolinians for Leadership in Government.

RECEIPTS


10/17/2007

ROY E CARROLL II

PRESIDENT/OWNER OLD SOUTH HOME COMPANY

3619 CAMDEN FALLS CIRCLE

GREENSBORO, NC 27410

Individual Contribution

Check

$4000.00


10/17/2007

VANESSA Y CARROLL

HOUSEWIFE HOUSEWIFE

3619 CAMDEN FALLS CIRCLE

GREENSBORO, NC 27410

Individual Contribution

Check

$4000.00

Total ALL Receipts:

$8,000.00


Expenditures
10/16/2007
DIANE BELLAMY-SMALL
GREENSBORO, NC
CONTRIBUTION
Check
$1000.00

10/16/2007
ROBBIE PERKINS
GREENSBORO, NC
CONTRIBUTION
Check
$1000.00

10/16/2007
SANDRA ANDERSON GROAT
GREENSBORO, NC
CONTRIBUTION
Check
$1000.00

10/16/2007
TRUDY WADE
GREENSBORO, NC
CONTRIBUTION
Check
$1000.00

10/16/2007
YVONNE JOHNSON
GREENSBORO, NC
CONTRIBUTIONS
Check
$1000.00

10/16/2007
ZACK MATHENY
GREENSBORO, NC
CONTRIBUTION
Check
$1000.00
Total ALL Expenditures:
$6,000.00


We also have a few Guilford County Commissioners who have received PAC money from local developer Roy Carroll as well in the past in


Paul Gibson (D) 5-2-08 for $1,000

Kirk Perkins (D) 5-6-08 for $1,000

There are many red flags that need to be attached to any deal involving Roy Carroll. The first would be in who will be his real estate broker on this deal because we have had many people in the past talk about the ethical issues of local politicians like Guilford County Chairman Skip Alston with a downtown hotel project and him being the broker on that deal. Now we know that sitting Greensboro City Council member and also local developer Robbie Perkins works hand in hand with Roy Carroll. This relationship is so tight that during a council meeting in 2009 we had Robbie Perkins text messaging Roy Carroll in China on a issue where the city and Roy Carroll's company were going to court with another developer Marty Kotis over properties off of Horse Pen Creek Road and Robbie Perkins told Roy Carroll from council chambers that he needs to fight this, here is that report CLICKHERE.

We can also raise some red flags to see that why did they pick these sights and was there any possibility for any other properties on the table?

If the News and Record is correct then are they going to use both properties or are they looking at both properties and then choosing just one site?

We also know from the past that local developer Roy Carroll has the use of a private plane CLICKHERE . Was any local public officials flown to any meetings with executives from American Express on this incentive package and presentation on this plane?

We will see what happens on this tax incentive hand out to American Express for corporate welfare, but a true conservative would vote NO to this deal.

Let's also see just how much influence local developer Roy Carroll has on this deal being a part of his property so that he can reap the riches of water and sewer and road improvements to all of his properties near knox road and birch creek road.
Let's hope more people will want to know all the facts of every aspect of this whole incentive package and ask the right questions to all involved.

Updated; Unanswered GPAC questions that should be answered before Guilford County Commissioners Thursday's Vote

How many free on street parking spaces r within 1/4 mile of the site?

Please provide the "binding" private donor agreements for GPAC. Third Slide

If the Greensboro Community Foundation is guaranteeing GPAC donations, what will the collateral be invested in beforehand?

How much was in the hotel motel account at the end of June, 2013?

Now that interest rates have risen for muni bonds, what are the new expected interest costs for borrowing money for the gpac?

What are the anticipated interest rate costs for locking in GPAC debt after the variable notes mature, now that interest rates have risen?

What are the total anticipated principal and interest costs on the debt costs for GPAC?

Please provide the parking study that shows how much governmental tax revenue will come in from public parking at the new GPAC spot that will pay for the debt service.

Where is the chamber of commerce/Greensboro Partnership going to move to?

What are the anticipated heavily used avenues for cars coming into and out of downtown for a show?

What is the anticipated traffic congestion for GPAC shows and Ball games on the same night, that will most likely end at the same relative time?

What will be the ability of those trying to get into downtown to go to a club if a ball game and GPAC show occur on the same night?

What is the anticipated effect on the Carolina Theater, considering the venue that went under when DPAC opened up?

What are the anticipated noise levels from crowds leaving the GPAC?

Are the details of the private donations going to be made public before August 20?

Please provide the math behind the criteria numbers used for the December 4, 2012 GPAC criteria slide in the Master Plan presentation.

Please provide the math that show $10 mill paid by premium parking for GPAC.

Please provide the traffic study for the gpac including anticipate​d drive times from nearby areas, and ergess timelines for traffic.
.
.
Greensboro City Council Members and Guilford County Commissioners are Fiduciaries.

If Guilford County's Commissioners vote to provide taxpayer revenue to borrow for this project without knowing what they should, they will have violated their fiduciary duties to their constituents.
.
.
"The fiduciary duty is a legal relationship of confidence or trust between two or more parties. One party…acts in a fiduciary capacity to another, such as one whose funds are entrusted to it. In a fiduciary relation, one person justifiably reposes confidence, good faith, reliance and trust in another whose aid, advice or protection is sought in some matter.

In such a relation, good conscience requires one to act at all times for the sole benefit and interests of another, with loyalty to those interests.

A fiduciary…must not put his personal interests before the duty, and must not profit from his position as a fiduciary, unless the principal consents.

A fiduciary cannot have a conflict of interest.

…A fiduciary must not profit from the fiduciary position.

This includes any benefits or profits which although unrelated to the fiduciary position, came about because of an opportunity that the fiduciary position afforded.

Secret commissions, or bribes also come under the no profit rule.

Conduct by a fiduciary may be deemed constructive fraud, when it is based on acts, omissions or concealments…that gives one an advantage."

Fiduciary
Wikipedia
.
.
Will the community foundation guarantee the GPAC debt with other peoples money?

Why not let the private donars buy the GPAC property?

What would be the directions to the GPAC from Winston and Graham, compared to DPAC?

If the Community Foundation raised more than $10 million, why don't they buy the land for the GPAC?

On the 2012 Greensboro & Guilford County Real Estate Tax Revaluation Assessment

Guilford's unemployment rate went from about 5.5% in 2004 to about 10% in 2012, and home prices dropped during 2011.

On Tuesday, March 5, 2013, The Greensboro News & Record reported “A record number of Guilford County property owners are appealing their 2012 tax revaluations at the state level… after being rejected by the Guilford County Board of Equalization and Review”, and “this year’s number is nearly five times that of the 2004 revaluation”

The City of Greensboro’s property taxes are based on Guilford County’s valuation.

This information can be verified by Tax Director Ben Chavis at 641-3379, or bchavis@co.guilford.nc.us.  The Rhino's Scott Yost, the News & Record's Amanda Lehmert, Joe Killian and Jeff Gauger failed to interview the expert who analyzed this information, and didn't investigate or report the following information to the public.

In May, 2012, Mecklenburg County moved to independently audit their 2011 real estate revaluation after numerous complaints of over-valuation. Among 52 neighborhoods with the fastest-rising values, 20 had major problems and 18 others had minor ones.

The audit found “neighborhood modifiers were often used…instead of using “influence code” adjustments such as shape, size, and topography with clearly expressed percentages for each adjustment… The use of neighborhood modifiers in this manner, results in a lack of transparency in land appraisal”, and “The mixing of influence code adjustments with neighborhood modifiers hinders an efficient review of neighborhood” and “this was a primary tool the Tax Office staff utilized to produce the values for the 2011 revaluation”, and “it is difficult to determine what individual factors were considered… Property owners cannot readily determine if nearby commercial properties also received the same base square foot rate or were adjusted for similar influences such as location or limited access."

Mecklenburg County's Tax Assessor resigned after the report revealed the department had not made on-site visits to actually see properties that were being valued.

Guilford County’s Tax Department declined to provide what data points and variable broad based assumptions (modifiers) and foreclosures were and were not included, as well as the software instructions for the 2012 revaluation.

The Greensboro News & Record’s Joe Killian 373-7000, or joe.killian@news-record.com, and the Rhino Times’ Scott Yost 273-0885, or scott@rhinotimes.net, also declined to investigate or report on the following, which correlates with the information above;

The North Carolina Department of Revenue’s “Sales Ratio” is an indicator used to access which NC counties are relatively over or under assessed for tax valuation purposes. Of the North Carolina counties that revalued in 2012, 5 had a Sales Ratio showing overvalued tax assessments as of January 1, 2011.

Those I spoke with who sell real estate valuation software, revealed some tax director’s interpretations of revaluation laws vary widely, and that all counties don’t incorporate the same information for assessments, meaning results may vary and can be massaged.

Guilford was the only North Carolina County in 2012 whose real estate values were supposed to fall by the state’s metric that didn’t, as 72% of the other counties fell more than the Sales Ratio indicated. Of the three counties that went higher, the other two were at the extreme opposites of the valuation metric.

Guilford County’s 2012-13 pre-real estate revaluation proposed budget including a 9.5 cent tax increase, but instead of falling about 3.72% or more as the 1/1/11 Sales Ratio and housing data from 2011 suggested, Guilford County’s values rose and tax rates decreased to the benefit of political incumbents.

In August 2012, Guilford County's Commissioners voted to give Guilford County employees a $250 bonus and 40 hours of extra paid time off.

In March 2012 before announcing her retirement, Guilford County Manager Brenda Jones Fox created a temporary bonus for county employees, only for those retiring with more than 30 years of service within a certain time period. When Fox announced her retirement, she stood to receive another $44,500, until the Rhino Times’ Scott Yost reported the story.

Mrs. Fox was not fired.

Please support Greensboro and Guilford County investigating the 2012 revaluation process and redo the next tax revaluation in 2016 instead of 2020, and encourage our local news industry to report these results.

Another Guilford County Real Estate Metric that does not comport with the County's 2012 Real Estate Tax Revaluation

I received this in the mail at a "Property Update Report" from a Realtor D. J. McGarrigan.

This clearly shows Guilford County "Average Cost Per Square Foot" was lower
in December and January 2012, than December and January 2011.

I have asked for and not received this information request from Guilford County:


"Please provide the electronic edition of the instruction manual
of the computer software
used for 2012's Guilford County real estate tax revaluation."

The following is from a "Letter to the Editor" to the Greensboro News & Record
sent on October 15, that the "Editors" appear unwilling to publish.

Of the 12 North Carolina counties that revalued in 2012, 5, including had a NC State "Sales Ratio" as of January 1, 2011 which indicated real estate tax assessments were overvalued.  Real estate prices fell in Guilford County during 2011.  Rutherford County lost about 12% more than their 2011 Sales Ratio values on 1/1/12, Cabarrus County lost about 5.5% more, New Hanover County lost about 3% more, and Cherokee County's values fell 26%.  Guilford was the only North Carolina county in 2012 whose real estate values were supposed to fall by the state's metric that didn't.  

Residential homes now valued at $250,000+ increased in value by an average of $9,981.20.  Guilford County's 2012-13 proposed budget pre-real estate revaluation included a 9.5 cent tax increase, but instead of falling about or more than 3.72% as the 1/1/11 Sales Ratio and house prices during 2011 suggested, Guilford County's values rose 1.5% and tax rates decreased slightly. 

Both Mecklenburg and Guilford Counties used the same revaluation software, and in May, 2012, Mecklenburg moved to "independently" audit their 2011 Real Estate Revaluation after numerous complaints of over valuation.  Those I spoke with who sell the software.said tax directors/counties interpretations of the reval law vary widely, and that all counties don't incorporate the same information, meaning results may vary.  I implore the News & Record to investigate this information before the Editorial Board publishes endorsements for contested commissioners races. 

George Hartzman

I sent this letter to Guilford County Tax Director Ben Chavis, Manager Brenda Jones Fox, Budjet Director Michael Halford, Commissioner's Chairman Skip Alston and all commissioners, edpage@news-record.com, Greensboro News & Record News Editor Jeff Gauger, Editorial Page Editor Allen Johnson, Doug Clark, Publisher Robin Saul, Margaret Banks, Amanda Lehmert, Joe Killian, Richard Barron, Travis Fain, the Rhino's Scott Yost and John Hammer, Triad Business Journal's Mark Sutter and Matt Evans, Phil Berger, Alma Adams, John Blust, Marcus Brandon, Pricey Harrison, John Faircloth, Maggie Jeffus, Don Vaughan, Stan Bingham, and Gladys Robinson.

Guilford County Tax Director Ben Chavis replied with the following:

Ben Chavis Oct 17  

George, 

Mecklenburg used a different software for revaluation from us.   

We do have the same Billing & Collections software as Mecklenburg. 

Ben Chavis
Guilford County Tax Director
336-641-3379

To which I replied and have not received an answer:

Thank you for your response Mr. Chavis; 

Who's software did you use? 

How many other NC counties use the same software? 

Who's software did Meck use? 

Why did residential homes now valued at $250,000+ increased by an average of $9,981.20? 

I have asked the county for the instruction manual of the software you used, and it has not been provided. 

Of all the possible information that could have been included in the revaluation assessment, what was included, what wasn't and why? 

How different is the data used by Guilford County, to the other NC counties that revalued this year? 

Why won't the county detail the home sales that were not included? 

How many distressed home sales were counted for real estate below $250,000, compared to above? 

What variable broad based assumptions are included in the reval software? 

Is the software issue the only issue/fact with which you disagree? 

What data points could have been utilized but were not? 

How did Guilford County go from a 9.5 cent tax increase to a tax decrease?

By the way:

Mr. Hartzman,

Here are the NC counties that currently use the NCPTS software:

Wake
Wayne
Pitt
Harnett
Guilford
Orange
Randolph
Catawba
Mecklenburg
Henderson

Please let me know If you have any questions.

Judy Rhyne
NCACC

The following graph from UNCG's Don Jud looks like the one above.

http://www.uncg.edu/bae/cber/tbi/apr12/index.htm
Sixth Graph Down

This is me explaining this, again.




Our local news outlets and elected officials appear to be unwilling to investigate and/or report news that may directly effect a great deal of Guilford County homeowners.

Amanda Lehmert and Joe Killian have received contact information for the expert who looked into the raw data provided by Guilford County and have chosen to not follow up.

If Guilford County residents vote in commissioner races, while this information remains investigation by our local press, I believe the outcome of the election will have been manipulated by the Rhino Times and the Greensboro News & Record.

Please contact Guilford County, your elected representatives and our unaccountable press for answers.

Updated: It appears as though the Rhino Times' John Hammer is Financially Illiterate

No Evidence Of Rich Stupid People Club

"The News & Record is promoting a wild theory about a conspiracy
to raise tax values in upper income neighborhoods in Greensboro.

It is a truly whacky idea, and it comes from a truly whacky guy
– George Hartzman
– who has been preaching versions of his conspiracy theory for months.

Hartzman ran for the District 3 City Council seat in 2009
and is a regular speaker from the floor at City Council meetings.

Hartzman has tried hard to recruit The Rhinoceros Times
into his tax-value-conspiracy-theory fold,
but it makes no sense to us.

First you have to assume that the Guilford County commissioners
are heavily involved in the real estate revaluation process,
and they simply are not.

Where did I say that?

Why would the commissioners have to be involved

in a skewed tax revaluation?

If anything, a passive endorsement of the outcome

presented to both City Council and the county commissioners 

that makes them look good

makes more sense than active involvement.

But if you accept that then you have to also assume
that there is a rich property owners club
where the rich property owners get together
and all agree on what property values should be...

What sense does this sentence make?

Why would higher value property owners

purposfully want to increase thier own taxes?

...and further,
that every member of the club is a complete and utter idiot
who understands nothing about real estate and property values.

Further you have to believe that this rich property owners club
and the Guilford County commissioners conspired
and got the county employees in the Tax Department
to commit any number of serious crimes regarding property values.

We looked into it and it all seemed a little farfetched to us.

I know a couple of employees in the Tax Department
and know that they are basically honest,
but also that they have no intention of going to prison
to help some demented rich property owner
who for some inexplicable reason wants to pay more property taxes.

The theory that Hartzman and the News & Record are pushing
is that the rich property owners club wanted to have their property tax values increased...

Why would higher value property owners

purposfully want to increase thier own taxes?

...and right here in the beginning the theory breaks down
because the main thing that is affected by your tax property value
is the amount of property tax you pay.

????????????


"...the main thing that is affected by your tax property value
is the amount of property tax you pay."?

...The tax value is supposed to reflect the market price
but it is an estimate based on comparable real estate in the area.

And since the entire county is done at once,
the Tax Department does not have the time to spend on each piece of property
that an appraiser has.

...The county can't begin to spend several thousand dollars
on each of the roughly 200,000 pieces of property in Guilford County.

So they used a software package that did it for them?

Funny what can be done with computer software.

Rich property owners know that if the tax value of their home or office is low 

what that means is they pay less property tax, and,
when the property goes up for sale,
they get to explain that the tax value is low,
so the new property owner will also get to pay less property tax
– at least until the next revaluation.

But this is Hartzman's theory, or it is what it was.

What's my theory?


"...this is Hartzman's theory, 
or it is what it was."?

Hartzman has lots of theories about things
and sees more conspiracies than most people.

I must be insane.

What is astounding is that he convinced the News & Record
that this theory was worth a couple of front page stories.

I brainwashed the entire News & Record staff?

District 5 Guilford County commissioner candidate Jeff Phillips said
he learned a lesson about speaking to the News & Record.

He said that in his opinion the theory of a conspiracy
to artificially raise property taxes was that it was "highly unlikely."

He did say that he does have questions
about the way Guilford County reevaluated the property for 2012,
but that the idea that there was some kind of conspiracy was farfetched.

It's Hartzman's theory that a grand conspiracy in Guilford County
has raised property values in wealthy neighborhoods
because wealthy property owners didn't want their property values to go down...

Incorrect.

I have found that property values in wealthy neighborhoods went up

and the low end got crushed

and the results do not match what occured.

Where did I say anywhere 

"wealthy property owners didn't want their property values to go down..."?

...and this also allowed the Guilford County commissioners
to slightly lower the property tax rate,
but the county will still collect more property tax revenue.

?????????????????

Guilford County commissioners lowered the property tax, 
gave out  vacation etc...after the budget was adopted
and eliminated what the county cited as a need for a 9.5 cent tax increase.

What seems to be overlooked is that the figure they are all concerned about

is the total value of the property in Guilford County in 2012
versus the total value of the property based on 2004 values.

Actually, the figure to be concerned with

is last year's versus this year's

and the effect on Greensboro and Guilford County budgets
and the differences between Guilford County's results
and the results of 13 other counties.

Although the value of much of the property in Guilford County
has dropped from what it was in 2008,
it has to go all the way back to 2004 to drop in tax value...

Which, according to UNCG's Don Jud, 

went back to 1990's era values.

John "financially illiterate" Hammer?
September 20, 2012



http://www.uncg.edu/bae/cber/tbi/apr12/index.htm
.
.
.
In March 2012, Guilford County Manager Brenda Jones Fox

inserted a temporary bonus in a consent agenda
for county employees retiring,
only after more than 30 years of service.

When Mrs. Fox announced her retirement in April 2012,
she stood to recieve another $44,500.

Mrs. Fox was not fired.

In August 2012, Guilford County's Commisioners voted
to give Guilford County employees a $250 bonus
and 40 hours of extra paid-time-off.
 
In May, 2012, Mecklenburg County, North Carolina 
moved to "independently" audit thier 2011 Real Estate Revaluation
after numerous complaints of innacurate real estate values.

Guilford County's unemployment rate went from about 5.5% in 2004
to about 10% in 2012.

I believe the statistical chances of the high end of revaluations going up
while the low end,
probably about half of which is owned by relatively local investors
goes down as significantly
is relatively slim to none.

Please Disseminate: Search Directions to Compare Greensboro and Guilford County Real Estate Revaluation Assessment Outcomes

Guilford County GIS Data Viewer

Click on Parcel Search in the upper right hand side of the page linked above.

Updated with Search Directions: A Comparison of Four

Greensboro and Guilford County Real Estate Revaluation Assessment Outcomes:

Guess Who?

We recieved our 2012 Revaluation Assessed Value Today.

Enter number and street, without "drive" or "court" after

and then click search.

Click on Tax Appraisal Information on the right hand side
and a new window will come up.

The new tax value is in the bottom right corner.

Click on Tax bill in the upper right area,
which should open a new window.

Clicking on the top link with lots of numbers under the headings on the left
should bring up another window with the old value in the middle on the left.

Divide.

Subtract.

Compare.

City of Greensboro and Guilford County Information Request on Real Estate Revaluation Assessments

Please provida data for all Guilford County revaluation assessements
including before and after values of all properties in a comma delimited format
with before and after values seperated, which can be measured in different ways.

George Hartzman

Does history rhyme? II

Little by little, business is enlarged with easy money.

 

With the exhaustless reservoir of the Government of the United States

furnishing easy money the sales increase, the businesses enlarge

more new enterprises are started,

the spirit of optimism pervades the community.

 

Everyone is making money, everyone is growing rich.

 

It goes up and up,

…until finally someone whose judgment was bad,

someone whose capacity for business was small

breaks,

and as he falls, he hits the next brick in the row,

and then another

… and down comes the whole structure.

 

That is what happened to greater or less degree

before the panic of 1837, of 1857,

of 1873, of 1893 and of 1907.

 

Elihu Root

US Senator, Nobel Laureate

Why Greensboro’s, Guilford County’s and America’s Political System is Broken

In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence.

 

In time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee

 who is incompetent to carry out his duties.

 

Work is accomplished by those employees

who have not yet reached their level of incompetence.

 

Dr Laurence J Peter

 

Market Failure

 

…market failure exists to the extent that innovation is blocked by incumbents. If innovators can succeed by out-competing incumbents, then the market is working. If incumbents have a self-reinforcing system that keeps out innovators, then we have market failure.

 

…Suppose that we have a group that wants enormous political power. The group rewards people who justify its power by calling them "experts." It punishes those who question its power by dismissing them as "hacks." If you want money and status, you want to be labeled as an expert. In order to be labeled as an expert, you produce analysis that justifies concentrated political power for the elite group.

 

This process is self-reinforcing...only "reliable" people are allowed to be CEO's or policymakers. A requirement for being "reliable" is sharing the views of other "reliable" people as to what constitutes reliability.

 

It is like the tenure system in academia. Who gets tenure? Above all, it is people who support the existing tenure system.

 

…Of course, incumbents never want to change the process, but markets can force change.

 

…There is a market failure in health care. Instead of innovation, what gets rewarded are ideas and policies that entrench the existing system.

 

…There is a market failure in education. Educational institutions are evaluated not on the basis of rigorous standards but instead on the basis of a system of credentialism that is self-referential. X is acceptable because X has been certified by Y, which is acceptable because it has been certified by Z, and so on. In order to climb the ladder in academia, you have to display allegiance to the credentialist ideology. You have to reinforce the incumbents and help snuff out innovation. Our program is accredited, and yours is not. So there.

 

…The key is whether a reputation system is reasonably open to innovation, or whether it serves primarily to maintain the status of incumbents.

 

The reputation system…serves the incumbents, who want to centralize political power. The relationship between politicians and experts is the most serious market failure of all. It is our version of what I have called the Moral Rot Factor.

 

...I think that there is still a high probability that we are on a path to a system in which a political elite ruthlessly rewards its friends and punishes its enemies, leading to a society with much less innovation and much more corruption. I do not foresee gulags and mass murders, but there is plenty of potential for moral rot in cronyism, and that I do fear lies ahead.

 

Arnold Kling

Library of Economics and Liberty

If borrowing to pay for tax cuts helps an economy in the short run, do unpaid for tax cuts retard growth in the long run?

The Laffer Curve, anyone know what this says?

 

It says that at this point on the revenue curve

you will get exactly the same amount of revenue as at this point…

 

Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980, anyone?

 

Something-d-o-o economics, voodoo economics.

 

Ferris Bueller’s Day Off

 

Should higher interest rates and inflation

correlated to tax cuts and increased borrowing

eventually reduce tax revenue

following short term economic growth?

What does spending more than you make look like?

 Chart Via Business Insider

Does history rhyme?

If some lose their whole fortunes, they will drag many more down with them.

 

If those revenues are destroyed,

our whole system of credit will come down with a crash.

 

…The national budget must be balanced.

 

The public debt must be reduced.

 

The arrogance of the authorities must be moderated and controlled.

 

Payments to foreign governments must be reduced

if the nation doesn't want to go bankrupt.

 

People must again learn to work instead of living on public assistance.

 

Marcus Tullius Cicero

Roman Constitutionalist

Keith Brown; Pigs, Poultry, and Politics + TREBIC + FREE MEAL = Ethical Issues for Local Elected Officials in Guilford County

Triad Real Estate and Building Industry Coalition(TREBIC) our local special interest lobbying group headed by Marlene Sanford has a annual gathering in it's 11th year called Pigs, Poultry, and Politics- Old Fashioned Political Rally. Click on the title above or CLICKHERE


If this is a old fashioned political rally it sure is composed of the most connected sponsors who give plenty of campaign contributions to the local politicians. Let's take a closer look at who is sponsoring this political rally.

2010 Sponsorship Congress members:


President: Signature Property Group

Governor: AT&T; Fairway Outdoor Advertising

Senator: BB&T; Brown Investment Properties; Davenport Transportation Consulting; D.R. Horton Homes; Isaacson Isaacson Sheridan & Fountain, LLP; Smith Moore Leatherwood LLP


Commissioner: K. Hovnanian Homes; Pest Management Inc

This old fashioned political rally is where TREBIC can tell all the local politicians who runs Guilford County and where do you get your campaign contributions from.This is where Marlene Sanford President of TREBIC can say to the local politicians just how many more TREBIC  members can we fit on these boards and commissions in Guilford County, especially in the City of Greensboro.

Governor Sponsor: Fairway Outdoor Advertising and it's main kingpin W.S. Morris III from Augusta Georgia, between the in kind contributions from Fairway Outdoor Advertising and the campaign contributions to local politicians he is one of the most generous campaign contributors in this county and he doesn't even live here.Lately there hasn't been much campaign giving from W.S. Morris but this company is very generous with their influence and sign placements all over Guilford County.


Senator Sponsor: Isaaacson, Isaacson & Sheridan. We like to call them King Zoning Stud Henry Isaacson and his son Little King Zoning Stud Marc Isaacson because if you want to get a zoning case passed in Greensboro or Guilford County these are the one's who give plenty of money to the local politicians campaign coffers and if you haven't seen their DOG AND PONY SHOW it is a masterpiece just go to a Greensboro City Zoning meeting to witness King Zoning Stud Henry Isaacson  in action.

We also have Brown Investment and Chester Brown who is connected to Greensboro City Council member Robbie Perkins with a new shopping center out off of church street and HWY. 150 with Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow also the well driller on this project. Then we find out that one of Chester Brown's employees Russ Parmele VP of business development has moved right from Greensboro board of adjustment to the Greensboro Zoning Commission without any opposition . It must be nice to go from one commission right to another without any objections and to see if there has been any applications in the databank waiting to get on this board but the TREBIC connected Brown Investment goes right to the front of the line. Amazing

These are just a few of the usual suspects who will be at this Old fashioned political rally. The influence of TREBIC on the local politicians needs to come to an end. When you hear certain politicians come out and say TREBIC has been contacted and TREBIC has some interest, it only goes to show that the FOX is guarding the Hen House and each year they want everyone to know who the FOX actually is.

_________________________________________________________________________________


We also have a new ethical dilemma for any local politician who has received a e mail from TREBIC on this annual gathering . If you would like to go to this event check out the application CLICKHERE . If you see the link it states that this event will cost you $30.00. This poses a real problem and all you need to do is CLICKHERE. This is where TREBIC states this

"Welcome Elected Officials and Candidates!


We invite you to attend our Annual "Pig, Poultry & Politics" event on Thursday, October 14 from 4:30 to 7:00 pm. TREBIC and its member Trade Associations represent nearly 4000 real estate professionals in and around Guilford County, plus all their employees.
Provide your name and mailing address and we'll send you the tickets. See you there!

ELECTED OFFICIALS AND CANDIDATES FREE REGISTRATION"

TREBIC also sent out a email to all the local elected officials and here is what was in the e mail,

"Please plan to attend the 11th Annual Pig, Poultry & Politics Thursday, October 14th! You can reply to this email to RSVP. Your ticket is complimentary, but if you need tickets for guests, they can be purchased for $30 each, $35 day of the event. You can order tickets on our website, www.trebic.org, or you can use the order form attached. "

It states that the local elected official and candidates can get their ticket for free and complimentary.


We have seen plenty of problems on the state level with some DMV workers were given free meals just like the Greensboro ABC Manager Katie Alley who is in a little hot water for her lunch dates with vendors comping the meals for her. How is this different from the most influential lobbyist group in Guilford County TREBIC giving FREE MEALS to local elected officials and candidates right before the elections.

If you are a local elected official and do plan on going to this event it is in your best intertest to NOT take the free meal and buy a $30 ticket and run it through your campaign committee fund because to me this is accepting a free meal and should not be done. Ethics is a real issue and it is time for our local elected officials and candidates understand how this free meal is not right and if you want to attend then pony up the $30 or not go. Triadwatch looks forward to seeing your $30 contribution on your campaign returns from this special interest lobbying political rally event brought to you by the non registered lobbyist Marlene Sanford and the non registered lobbyist group TREBIC.      

The Rhino Times Paul C. Clark on Guilford County, North Carolina's School Budget, governmental propaganda, and what may happen after what could happen next when federal stimulus money runs out

"...Guilford County Schools, in real terms, has had about the same amount of money to spend in each year of the current recession, and has more money to spend for this school year than it did last year.

...After months of hearing "cuts, cuts, cuts," most people think the school system will get less this school year than it did last year.

Not so.

When the school board on August 10 approved a final 2010-2011 budget after months of deliberation,...the final [2010-1011] operating budget...was $598.6 million, $8 million more than the school system's 2009-2010 operating budget of $590.6 million.

And the school system's 2009-2010 operating budget was only $1 million less than its $591 million 2008-2009 operating budget, despite months of discussion about budget cuts.

Are you certain
you’ve not been conditioned to think certain thoughts?

Guilford County Schools Chief Financial Officer Sharon Ozment and the school system's public relations department heavily advertise cuts in state funding, whether or not they materialize.

Does thinking you understand what another says
mean you hear what they mean?

They tend not to mention that the school system's operating budget has increased from the previous year.

Do the few who control the dissemination
of most financial and political information
enjoy relatively disproportionate levels of influence
than the many who don’t?

It's one of the spins they use to make the school system appear to be poorer than it actually is and to downplay its spending.

Is an untruth disseminated as true a lie
if the truth remains unfound through incuriosity?

Another is not mentioning the amount of the school system's total budget in press releases.

Could some of what you think
be what you’re frequently told to think?

For the 2009-2010 fiscal year, that budget was $642 million.

For the 2010-2011 fiscal year, the total budget is $651 million – an increase of $9 million in real terms after months of debates over "cuts."

Can what you think may be
turn out more like what you thought
even if it doesn’t?

...Guilford County Schools could just take its funding cuts with a stiff upper lip, realizing that they are the common lot during a recession. But there's no tradition of doing that in public school systems, where every budget cycle is a much-ballyhooed crisis.

The main reason the school system isn't hurting like everybody else is the federal government. The...the stimulus bill has funneled billions of dollars into state and local governments, much of it earmarked for education.

...Guilford County Schools has had $38.4 million in state funding cut over the last two years. But the school system has received $75 million in federal stimulus money over three fiscal years.

Guilford County Schools expects to get more stimulus money for fiscal 2010-11 that isn't reflected in the $75 million figure. On August 10, Congress passed a $26 billion "jobs bill" – more accurately, a government-jobs bill to fund teachers, police officers and other public sector workers. Guilford County Schools stands to get $14.1 million out of North Carolina's $300 million allotment from that bill.

If the federal government habitually bails out overextended school systems
is it a good idea for school systems to overextend?

Also, North Carolina last week won one of the federal Race to the Top Fund grants that are intended to improve failing schools. North Carolina's grant will be for $400 million, and at least half of that money is expected to go directly to school systems. If $200 million is apportioned to the school systems based on their enrollment, Guilford County Schools stands to get another $10 million or so.

If short term taxpayer subsidies boosts Guilford County School's revenues,
what could some long term unintended consequences be?

The stimulus money does come with strings attached. The federal government specifies what the money can be spent for, but in most cases the stimulus money frees up other money the school board can then reassign.

Congradulations to the Rhino Times' Paul C. Clark
for winning the "George Hartzman Person of the Day Award"
for uncovering and reporting on the fungibility of government budget accounting!!!

...The main problem with the stimulus money is that it's scheduled to run out after the 2010-11 school year, leaving the school system facing, unless the economy recovers, budget cuts that will be genuinely severe in 2011-2012. Not even the federal government can go on indefinitely supporting state and local governments forever.

Can bailouts perpetuate problems instead of solve them?

Some Guilford County school board members say they plan to keep as much of the jobs bill money for 2011-2012, despite the fact that the state and federal government intend it to be spent by September 2011.

Should Guilford County Schools is facing a dire budget outlook,
should the School Board discuss not borrowing any more money than absolutely necessary,
and if not, at what point could the Board and Guilford County's Commissioners
be considered guilty
of financial negligence and fiscal malpractice?

"Save every dime that we can for next year," recommended school board member Paul Daniels. "The forecast we have is gloomy beyond comprehension.""

Paul C. Clark
Rhino Times