Guilford County and North Carolina Total Covid-19 Cases and Deaths YTD; What may likely happen next

 Guilford County Covid-19

Total Cases;


Total Deaths;


Data back to September 26, 2020;


Guilford County Deaths by Age;


Pre Air Conditioning Days = US had uptick in hottest Summer weather

The influenza pandemic in 1918 and 1919 occurred in three waves, killing about 675,000 in the United States and between 20 to 100 million worldwide.

The first wave eased during the Summer of 1918, which looks to be similar to current COVID-19 events, taking the effect of 2020's Summer time air conditioning had into account. 

In the Autumn of 1918, the second biggest wave began, consistent with the onset of Winter/Flu Season in the Northern Hemisphere with lower humidity and temperatures. 

2020's Fall outbreak looks to be less severe than 1918, as Covid appears to leave younger patients with much fewer complications and morbidity, as well as better wide spread social distancing and elder seclusion.

The third wave hit in the first half of 1919, and by the summer the pandemic relatively ended as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.

COVID-19 “established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 North latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C [41 to 51 F] and 47-79 percent humidity)";


If known infections retard significantly enough as asymptomatic spread goes relatively undetected in warmer weather, a new wave could hit the areas around the yellow with reported infections spreading through next Fall/Winter/Flu season.

Dropping amounts of water vapor in cold, dry Winter air makes it easier for Covid to become airborne. 

30 year average temperatures between 1988-2018 October through May indicate when a larger second wave will likely occur. Areas around Yellow to Green are most likely to experience higher case loads.








Covid-19 should start dissipating for North Carolina by April;

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