Showing posts with label COVID-19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COVID-19. Show all posts

10/16/20

Guilford County and North Carolina Total Covid-19 Cases and Deaths YTD; What may likely happen next

 Guilford County Covid-19

Total Cases;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Total Deaths;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Data back to September 26, 2020;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Guilford County Deaths by Age;

https://www.guilfordcountync.gov/our-county/human-services/health-department/coronavirus-covid-19-info/covid-19-data



Pre Air Conditioning Days = US had uptick in hottest Summer weather

The influenza pandemic in 1918 and 1919 occurred in three waves, killing about 675,000 in the United States and between 20 to 100 million worldwide.

The first wave eased during the Summer of 1918, which looks to be similar to current COVID-19 events, taking the effect of 2020's Summer time air conditioning had into account. 

In the Autumn of 1918, the second biggest wave began, consistent with the onset of Winter/Flu Season in the Northern Hemisphere with lower humidity and temperatures. 

2020's Fall outbreak looks to be less severe than 1918, as Covid appears to leave younger patients with much fewer complications and morbidity, as well as better wide spread social distancing and elder seclusion.

The third wave hit in the first half of 1919, and by the summer the pandemic relatively ended as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.

COVID-19 “established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 North latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C [41 to 51 F] and 47-79 percent humidity)";

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

If known infections retard significantly enough as asymptomatic spread goes relatively undetected in warmer weather, a new wave could hit the areas around the yellow with reported infections spreading through next Fall/Winter/Flu season.

Dropping amounts of water vapor in cold, dry Winter air makes it easier for Covid to become airborne. 

30 year average temperatures between 1988-2018 October through May indicate when a larger second wave will likely occur. Areas around Yellow to Green are most likely to experience higher case loads.

October;

https://gvn.org/sars-cov-2-response-efforts/

November;


December;


January;


February;


March;


Covid-19 should start dissipating for North Carolina by April;


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4/11/20

COVID-19; Homeowners with federally backed loans can skip mortgage payments for up to a year, regardless of what their banks say"

"The federal CARES Act for the COVID-19 pandemic gives borrowers of federally backed loans the right to contact their mortgage loan servicer and demand what’s called forbearance, skipping their mortgage payments, simply by attesting that the coronavirus crisis has resulted in financial hardship.

No documentation of the hardship is required.

About 70 percent of home loans in the United States — about 33.4 million — are actually owned by an agency backed or controlled by the federal government, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

For Fannie Mae, go to knowyouroptions.com/loanlookup

For Freddie Mac, go to ww3.freddiemac.com/loanlookup

Mortgage servicers, however, are allowed to approve forbearance periods for 90 days at a time. Before those 90 days are over, customers need to reach out again if they need another 90 days, and so on, up to a year, said Raphael Williams, spokesman for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, guarantors of nearly half of all U.S. loans.

At the end of that forbearance period, when you are ready to resume making monthly payments, servicers of federally backed loans must give customers several repayment options, including add the entire missed amount to the end of the loan, extending the loan by the number of missed months.

The CARES Act doesn’t specify how mortgage servicers should handle the escrowed portion — property taxes and insurance — of mortgage payments."

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-bz-mortgage-forbearance-process-confusing-and-difficult-20200402-jueemmbkejfxzfzferfak4xzaq-story.html

Hat Tip Joe Coleman





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4/10/20

COVID-19 Infection thoughts based on monthly global temperatures in time compared to 1918-1919 with links etc...

The influenza pandemic in 1918 and 1919 occurred in three waves, killing about 675,000 in the United States and between 20 to 100 million worldwide.

The first wave eased during the summer of 1918, which looks similar to current event with COVID-19.  In the Autumn of 1918, the second biggest wave began.  The third wave hit in the first half of 1919, and by the summer the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.


COVID-19 “has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 North latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C [41 to 51 F] and 47-79 percent humidity)";

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800?fbclid=IwAR2RJKlwn3WhJveSAKz_L2fUe9cxWEYYYnRRFLNAKUOXkb2Ko2mgmiz_Kps

"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim 1000mb average temperatures from November 2018 to March 2019, the most recent data available for this time period, to show the temperate zone where the major SARS-CoV-2 hotspots have appeared so far";

https://gvn.org/enhanced-model-for-monitoring-zones-of-increased-risk-of-covid-19-spread/?fbclid=IwAR2PUH_PE9yhyzVS1tSset8tFdXE73FZct9KarVnrxBUI5WPPNCp-rV8mxo
If infections retard significantly enough as asymptomatic spread goes relatively undetected in warmer weather, a new wave should hit the areas around the yellow with reported infections spreading through next Fall/Winter/Flu season. 






30 year average temperatures between 1988-2018 September through May;










Considering the massive response to the first wave and worldwide lock-downs, the second wave of the virus could likely occur on a smaller scale as Winter hits the Southern Hemisphere from May/June to August/September, leaving many unaffected but not immune like most of the Northern Hemisphere.


































































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