I don't care if I follow your rules, if you can cheat, so can I
I won't let you beat me unfairly, I'll beat you unfairly first
Ender Wiggin
Fictional Military Strategist
Sun Could Set Suddenly on Superpower as Debt Bites
...what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arhythmic, at times almost stationary, but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car?Can non-random events cause random effects?
What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?
Great powers and empires are complex systems, which means their construction more resembles a termite hill than an Egyptian pyramid. They operate somewhere between order and disorder...
Such systems can appear to operate quite stably for some time; they seem to be in equilibrium but are, in fact, constantly adapting.Does complexity increase the likelihood of complication?
But there comes a moment when complex systems "go critical". A very small trigger can set off a phase transition from a benign equilibrium to a crisis.
Complex systems share certain characteristics. A small input to such a system can produce huge, often unanticipated changes, what scientists call the amplifier effect.The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change…
…so, in a month's time
a tornado that would have devastated the Indonesian coast doesn't happen
or maybe one that wasn't going to happen doesIan Stewart
The Mathematics of Chaos
Empires exhibit many of the characteristics of other complex adaptive systems, including the tendency to move from stability to instability quite suddenly. But this fact is rarely recognised because of our addiction to cyclical theories of history. The Bourbon monarchy in France passed from triumph to terror with astonishing rapidity. The sun set on the British Empire almost as suddenly. The Suez crisis in 1956 proved that Britain could not act in defiance of the US in the Middle East, setting the seal on the end of empire.
What are the implications for the US today?
The most obvious point is that imperial falls are associated with fiscal crises: sharp imbalances between revenues and expenditures, and the mounting cost of servicing a mountain of public debt.Did Spanish money become worth less
after the Emperor borrowed against 100 years of future tax revenue
to pay for war against England?
Think of Spain in the 17th century: already by 1543 nearly two-thirds of ordinary revenue was going on interest on the juros, the loans by which the Habsburg monarchy financed itself.Did France execute relatively the same strategy
with similar consequences not long after?
Or think of France in the 18th century: between 1751 and 1788, the eve of Revolution, interest and amortisation payments rose from just over a quarter of tax revenue to 62 per cent.Nations are not ruined by one act of violence
but quite often, gradually, and almost imperceptibly
by the depreciation of their currency through excessive quantityNicolas Copernicus
Discovered Earth was not the center of the Universe
Alarm bells should therefore be ringing very loudly indeed in Washington, as the US contemplates a deficit for 2010 of more than $1.64 trillion, about 10 per cent of GDP, for the second year running...
...what is even more terrifying is to consider what ongoing deficit finance could mean for the burden of interest payments as a share of federal revenues.
...the fiscal position of the US is at present worse than that of Greece.
For now, the world still expects the US to muddle through...
...even if rates stay low, recurrent deficits and debt accumulation mean that interest payments consume a rising proportion of tax revenue. And military expenditure is the item most likely to be squeezed to compensate because, unlike mandatory entitlements (social security, Medicaid and Medicare), defence spending is discretionary.If the US government dramatically increases Treasury debt issuance
while the rest of the world’s purchasing needs fall if global economic growth declines
should US long term interest rates eventually rise to attract investment?
It is, in other words, a pre-programmed reality of US fiscal policy today that the resources available to the Department of Defense will be reduced in the years to come. Indeed, by my reckoning, it is quite likely that the US could be spending more on interest payments than on defence within the next decade.
And remember: half the federal debt in public hands is in the hands of foreign creditors. Of that, a fifth (22 per cent) is held by the monetary authorities of the People's Republic of China, down from 27 per cent in July last year. It may not have escaped your notice that China now has the second-largest economy in the world and is almost certain to be the US's principal strategic rival in the 21st century, particularly in the Asia-Pacific. Quietly, discreetly, the Chinese are reducing their exposure to US Treasuries. Perhaps they have noticed what the rest of the world's investors pretend not to see: that the US is on a completely unsustainable fiscal course, with no apparent political means of self-correcting. That has profound implications not only for the US but also for all countries that have come to rely on it, directly or indirectly, for their security.If Iran and India cut a deal to deliver more Iranian oil to India
and reduce exports to China
should China resort to military action to prevent it?
Australia's post-war foreign policy has been, in essence, to be a committed ally of the US.
But what if the sudden waning of American power that I fear brings to an abrupt end the era of US hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region? Are we ready for such a dramatic change in the global balance of power?
Judging by what I have heard here since I arrived last Friday, the answer is no. Australians are simply not thinking about such things.I don't have a clue of what weapons
will be used in World War III
but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stonesAlbert Einstein
...dramas lie ahead as the nasty fiscal arithmetic of imperial decline drives yet another great power over the edge of chaos.
Niall Ferguson is professor of history at Harvard University.The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly,
is to fill the world with fools.Herbert Spencer
Coined the phrase “Survival of the fittest”
A metaphor.
If there are 9,183,421,888 ways to play the first nine moves,
9,417,681 the first six, 72,078 the first four, 5,362 the first three
and 20 to play the first,
are early moves more important than later?
Life is a kind of chess in which we have often points to gain,
competitors or adversaries to contend with,
and in which there is a vast variety of good and ill events…
By playing at chess…we may learn foresight, circumspection and caution.
Benjamin Franklin
All warfare is based on deception,
…when able to attack we must seem unable,
when using our forces we must seem inactive,
when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far…,
when far away, we must make him believe we are near.Sun Tzu
China’s hawks demand cold war on the US
…almost 55% of those questioned for Global Times, a state-run [Chinese] newspaper, agree that “a cold war will break out between the US and China”.
An independent survey of Chinese-language media … has found army and navy officers predicting a military showdown and political leaders calling for China to sell more arms to America’s foes. The trigger for their fury was Obama’s decision to sell $6.4 billion (£4 billion) worth of weapons to Taiwan, the thriving democratic island that has ruled itself since 1949.
“We should retaliate with an eye for an eye and sell arms to Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba and Venezuela,” declared Liu Menxiong, a member of the Chinese people’s political consultative conference.
He added: “We have nothing to be afraid of. The North Koreans have stood up to America and has anything happened to them? No. Iran stands up to America and does disaster befall it? No.”
…“This time China must punish the US,” said Major-General Yang Yi, a naval officer. “We must make them hurt.” A major-general in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Luo Yuan, told a television audience that more missiles would be deployed against Taiwan. And a PLA strategist, Colonel Meng Xianging, said China would “qualitatively upgrade” its military over the next 10 years to force a showdown “when we’re strong enough for a hand-to-hand fight with the US”.
Chinese indignation was compounded when the White House said Obama would meet the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Tibet, in the next few weeks.
“When someone spits on you, you have to get back,” said Huang Xiangyang, a commentator in the China Daily newspaper, usually seen as a showcase for moderate opinion.
An internal publication at the elite Qinghua University last week predicted the strains would get worse because “core interests” were at risk. It said battles over exports, technology transfer, copyright piracy and the value of China’s currency, the yuan, would be fierce.
…American officials seem baffled by what has gone wrong and how fast it has happened.
…Diplomats say they have been told that there was “frigid” personal chemistry between Obama and the Chinese president, with none of the superficial friendship struck up by previous leaders of the two nations.
…Americans were also livid at what they saw as deliberate Chinese attempts to humiliate the president by sending lower-level officials to deal with him.
…In Beijing, some diplomats even claim to detect a condescending attitude towards Obama, noting that Yang Jiechi, the foreign minister, prides himself on knowing the Bush dynasty and others among America’s traditional white, Anglo-Saxon, Protestant elite.
Michael Sheridan
Times Online
In chess, a fork is a tactic
that uses one piece to attack two or more of the opponent's pieces
at the same time,
hoping to achieve material gain
(by capturing one of the opponent's pieces)
because the opponent can only counter one of the two (or more) threats.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fork_(chess)
If big print can give what fine print takes
can winning the wrong game lose the right one?
Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed
whatever follies I have witnessed…
have been the consequence of action without thought
Bernard Baruch
American financier, and presidential advisor
Are chances better
for players who more accurately calculate probabilities
the farthest into the future?
If an offensive move doesn’t look advantageous
should defenses be reinforced instead?
If your attack is going too well
you have walked into an ambush
Infantry Journal
Coward
Etymology - From Old French coart, cuard, from coe (“‘tail’”)
The reference seems to be to an animal "turning tail",
or having its tail between its legs.
]
Coward (plural cowards) - A person who lacks courage.
Synonyms – chicken, gutless wonder, scaredy cat, yellow belly
Derived terms – cowardly, cowardice
Coward
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/coward
Matheny won't join District 3 debate
Sitting Councilman Zack Matheny will not take challenger George Hartzman up on his request to have a District 3 debate.
Jay Ovittore, the third candidate for the district, agreed to the debate.
Greensboro News and Record, August 6, 2009
Coward
Noun - a person who is easily frightened
and avoids dangerous or difficult situations
[Latin cauda tail]
cowardly adj
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Coward
Does increasing risk when odds are good
lower subsequent risk?
Rejoice not at your enemy's fall
but don't pick him up either
Yiddish proverb
What do you do in a battle
in which you die if you don’t fight or lose?
Whoever has his foe at his mercy and does not kill him
is his own enemy
Shaikh Sa’di Shirazi
The more captured opposing pieces the less risk
and vice versa
After the game
the king and pawn go into the same box
Italian proverb
Does the player who doesn’t make the last mistake
usually win?
Do some football running backs fake left and go right
to mislead the defense to commit in the wrong direction?
Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake
Napoleon Bonaparte
Should strategy be merciless
if a pawn can become a queen
weakness can become and overcome strength
and defense is offense?
A metaphor
Life is a kind of chess in which we have often points to gain
competitors or adversaries to contend with
and in which there is a vast variety of good and ill events…
By playing at chess…we may learn foresight, circumspection and caution
Benjamin Franklin
If there are 9,183,421,888 ways to play the first nine moves
9,417,681 the first six, 72,078 the first four, 5,362 the first three
and 20 to play the first
are early moves more important than later?
A closed mouth doesn’t get fed
Brandi Justice
If you have to lose
should the most valuable pieces be protected
by sacrificing the less valuable first
like a pawn before a rook
or a stranger before family?
Find the trend whose premise is false
and bet against it
George Soros
If Geithner’s Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP)
provides relatively transparent price discovery
through external private sector auctions
giving regulators a system to mark illiquid assets to market
could some distressed institutions be forced to raise capital
or acknowledge insolvency?
Could the PPIP be a Trojan Horse receivership vehicle
that deflates socialistic nationalization accusations?
In war
will is directed at an animate object that reacts
Karl von Clausewitz
Military Historian and Theorist
Find the trend whose premise is false
and bet against it
George Soros
If Geithner’s Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP)
provides relatively transparent price discovery
through external private sector auctions
giving regulators a system to mark illiquid assets to market
could some distressed institutions be forced to raise capital
or acknowledge insolvency?
Could the PPIP be a Trojan Horse receivership vehicle
that deflates socialistic nationalization accusations?
In war
will is directed at an animate object that reacts
Karl von Clausewitz
Military Historian and Theorist
