4/10/20

COVID-19 Infection thoughts based on monthly global temperatures in time compared to 1918-1919 with links etc...

The influenza pandemic in 1918 and 1919 occurred in three waves, killing about 675,000 in the United States and between 20 to 100 million worldwide.

The first wave eased during the summer of 1918, which looks similar to current event with COVID-19.  In the Autumn of 1918, the second biggest wave began.  The third wave hit in the first half of 1919, and by the summer the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.


COVID-19 “has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 North latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C [41 to 51 F] and 47-79 percent humidity)";

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800?fbclid=IwAR2RJKlwn3WhJveSAKz_L2fUe9cxWEYYYnRRFLNAKUOXkb2Ko2mgmiz_Kps

"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim 1000mb average temperatures from November 2018 to March 2019, the most recent data available for this time period, to show the temperate zone where the major SARS-CoV-2 hotspots have appeared so far";

https://gvn.org/enhanced-model-for-monitoring-zones-of-increased-risk-of-covid-19-spread/?fbclid=IwAR2PUH_PE9yhyzVS1tSset8tFdXE73FZct9KarVnrxBUI5WPPNCp-rV8mxo
If infections retard significantly enough as asymptomatic spread goes relatively undetected in warmer weather, a new wave should hit the areas around the yellow with reported infections spreading through next Fall/Winter/Flu season. 






30 year average temperatures between 1988-2018 September through May;










Considering the massive response to the first wave and worldwide lock-downs, the second wave of the virus could likely occur on a smaller scale as Winter hits the Southern Hemisphere from May/June to August/September, leaving many unaffected but not immune like most of the Northern Hemisphere.


































































No comments: