Guilford County and North Carolina Total Covid-19 Cases and Deaths YTD; What may likely happen next

 Guilford County Covid-19

Total Cases;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Total Deaths;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Data back to September 26, 2020;

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241168731.html

Guilford County Deaths by Age;

https://www.guilfordcountync.gov/our-county/human-services/health-department/coronavirus-covid-19-info/covid-19-data

North Carolina Cases YTD;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box

North Carolina Deaths YTD;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box

Guilford County CV Hospitalizations YTD;

https://www.guilfordcountync.gov/our-county/human-services/health-department/coronavirus-covid-19-info/covid-19-data

Waves from Spanish Flu;

Pre Air Conditioning Days = US had uptick in hottest Summer weather

The influenza pandemic in 1918 and 1919 occurred in three waves, killing about 675,000 in the United States and between 20 to 100 million worldwide.

The first wave eased during the Summer of 1918, which looks to be similar to current COVID-19 events, taking the effect of 2020's Summer time air conditioning had into account. 

In the Autumn of 1918, the second biggest wave began, consistent with the onset of Winter/Flu Season in the Northern Hemisphere with lower humidity and temperatures. 

2020's Fall outbreak looks to be less severe than 1918, as Covid appears to leave younger patients with much fewer complications and morbidity, as well as better wide spread social distancing and elder seclusion.

The third wave hit in the first half of 1919, and by the summer the pandemic relatively ended as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.

COVID-19 “established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50 North latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C [41 to 51 F] and 47-79 percent humidity)";

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

If known infections retard significantly enough as asymptomatic spread goes relatively undetected in warmer weather, a new wave could hit the areas around the yellow with reported infections spreading through next Fall/Winter/Flu season.

Dropping amounts of water vapor in cold, dry Winter air makes it easier for Covid to become airborne. 

30 year average temperatures between 1988-2018 October through May indicate when a larger second wave will likely occur. Areas around Yellow to Green are most likely to experience higher case loads.

October;

https://gvn.org/sars-cov-2-response-efforts/

November;

December;

January;

February;

March;

Covid-19 should start dissipating for North Carolina by April;

An 8 Hour, $100 CPA CPE with George Hartzman in Greensboro, on August19, 2010

You are cordially invited to an Eight Hour,
Intermediate / Advanced CPA CPE Workshop entitled:
 

What Could Happen
After What May Happen Next 

Critical analysis and debate for CPAs
in public accounting and industry.
 

Topics: An overview of current geopolitical and economic events, North Carolina and local municipal budget and finance highlights, America and the States, Bailout, Greece, Europe, Social Security, The 2009 Financial Report of the U.S. Government, Federal Reserve, FASB, Healthcare Ethics, Tax Ethics, Business and Regulatory Ethics, Hedge and High Frequency Trading
 

Think Professional Education is registered with the North Carolina State Board of CPA Examiners as a sponsor of continuing professional education. Please note that these sessions do not satisfy the annual ethics requirements for North Carolina CPAs.
 

George Hartzman, President of Think Professional Education specializes in economics and financial ethics and has taught North Carolina CPA CPE for ten years. George is the author of Think, What to Do Now, Think, Investor Guide, Think Retirement Plan Edition, Fiduciary Guide, Questions for Investors and Questions for America, which are used to teach CPE and adult education.
 

Each Attendee with recieve a dated, numbered, and signed copy of What Could Happen After What May Happen Next

Mr. Hartzman has worked in the financial services industry as a financial advisor and portfolio manager and holds degrees in Communications, Philosophy and Public Relations from Frostburg State University.

Lunch and refreshments catered by Lox, Stock and Bagel

Seating limited to 30 attendees 

Lecture Format. No advanced preparation or prerequisites necessary. Complaints or comments regarding registered sponsors may be addressed to the North Carolina State Board of CPA Examiners, PO Box 12827, Raleigh, NC 27605. Each CPA must exercise judgment in selecting courses and claiming credit for only those courses that contribute to the CPA’s professional competence and meet the standards  found in 21 NCAC 8G .0400 Based on 50 minute hours

Please click button to register in the left column.

Libertarian North Carolina US Senate candidate Sean Haugh's answers to some economic questions from The People's Alliance

PA question #1: What do you see as the primary sources of our current economic problems? How would you begin to reduce the federal deficit? Is this an issue of not enough revenue or of overspending? What are some of the possible negative consequences of your proposed solutions?

My answer: It's super simple math, people. We are spending more money than we have. We need to cut spending drastically, starting with the war budget and corporate welfare. We also need to audit the Federal Reserve and stop their inflationary policies of printing more money. We need to base our economy on the needs of all the people, not just the bankers. I don't know if there's a way to do that without completely privatizing money. There are obviously never any negative consequences to any of my solutions, except maybe to those who make their living off of looting the economy.

https://www.facebook.com/HaughForSenate

Why Robbie Perkins' may be recieving so much real estate/business related unusually large contributions; $273,932,356?

Page 101 of 319;

http://www.greensboro-nc.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=18104

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Previously;

Why would one page of the City of Greensboro's 2012 Financial Report say $101.4 million, and another $273,932,356?

http://hartzman.blogspot.com/2013/05/why-would-one-page-of-city-of.html
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Election Eve Dinner & Debate

Monday, November 4, 2013.

6:30pm until 8:30pm

Topic: Tuesday's Election

Likely issues; Greensboro Performing Arts Center, Civil Rights Museum, Coliseum and Police Issues, Local and National Political Ethics, the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and Entitlements, 2012’s Guilford County Real Estate Revaluation, Legal Ethics, Economics, Fun and Whatever Comes Up

From beginning to end, attendees will have the opportunity for 60 seconds to present any point of view on any subject.

Others can have 30 seconds to respond, before another topic begins, if not by a member of the audience, then by the moderator.

Audience participation is not mandatory

The format is designed after a class I have moderated at the Shepard's Center of Greensboro.

Moderated by George Hartzman, Chief Economist and Lecturer
Think Professional Education

No cost with the purchase of a Golden Corral meal.

Meeting room doors open at 6pm, with the event beginning at 6:30

Golden Corral
2419 Lawndale Dr, Greensboro, NC

GPAC Bait and Switch; The unpurchased GPAC properties that may cost more, now that City Council voted to buy the others

These are the additional properties yet to purchase, which also wasn't reported until last Tuesday's Council meeting.

I hear there were contracts from December that expired, and now the properties will cost even more.

Walker Sanders, by not having all the agreements in place, may well have cost the city quite a bit more money.

Clearly deceptive tactics on the part of the task force, city council and City of Greensboro staff.
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Bait and Switch

First, taxpayers were "baited" by being told the City of Greensboro was buying $7.6 million of real estate for a $60 million GPAC, with announcements of two new hotels during Wyndham week when negative news is relatively prohibited by local main stream media.

Second, on the eve of the council vote, the discovery of more properties to purchase becomes known, on top of what was on the agenda.

The goal of the bait-and-switch in this case was to persuade the public to favor the switch as a means of avoiding disappointment over not getting the performing arts center and hotels, and for the city to spend more money without the public really knowing what was actually happening.

This suggests that city staff, city council and the News & Record Editorial Board didn't want to transparently inform, but instead bait the public with the wonderfulness of the project without disclosing important details like the bogus financing math presented.

No binding commitments and no letter of Credit

Kathy Manning, Randall Kaplan's wife, lobbying for a GPAC and their new hotel

City Council voted to finance $10 million for GPAC based on a projection that every performance will sell out all 250 premium parking spaces to pay for the debt service.

Please provide the "binding commitments for a minimum of $20,000,000.00 in private contributions for the GPAC.

Instead of using 149 events to calculate the income to pay off the bonds that the hired consultant predicted, city staff and council raised the number of events to 180 per year, with all 250 premium parking spaces sold out at each and every show, even though there will be plenty of free and much lower cost parking options in close proximity to the venue.

This is flat out bogus math, which means the City Council members who voted for it broke their fiduciary duties to Greensboro's taxpayers.
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Bait-and-switch; like when I sold above ground aluminum swimming pools in 1992.

When I arrived in Greensboro, I was trained to present a bait and switch one call close sales presentation to sell swimming pools.

I got two leads a day, and would drive anywhere from Blacksburg, Virginia to Rock Hill, South Carolina to make sales calls.

Told the marks I was a "manager", on my way to set up a demonstration pool in the next town.

The bait was a $999 pool advertised in TV guides, and I would downplay the quality of the advertised pool, and switch to a $13,900 pool in the presentation, took a little off the top if they wanted the "demonstration" deal, under which they agreed to write a letter of recommendation etc..., reduced the big number to an affordable monthly payment of $249, (reduction to absurdity) and pop a second mortgage on the home at least a 17% annual interest rate.

I made half of any deal over $7,200.

I have been telling this story among others in Financial Ethics classes for years, as an example of how to not get ripped off by some of who I used to be.

The GPAC promotion and propaganda has been the same thing only different.
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Adam Smith, the father of modern economics wrote “The proposal of any new law or regulation which comes from [businessmen], ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention.”
Greensboro's taxpayers are being played for fools.

Part of a Facebook message converstation with North Carlina Congressman Brad Miller on George Hartzman's Wells Fargo Whistleblower case

North Carolina Gay Marriage Amendment: If at least 5 out of every 100 people are gay, and there are a little less than 10,000,000 people in North Carolina, how many are gay?

Should gay people be allowed to teach
in Pre-k or elementary schools?

If there are 500,000 gay residents in North Carolina...?

What are the chances of a Baptist preacher
calling something homogeneous?

"At what age did you choose to not be gay?"

John Stewart

Do North Carolina's non-profit religions have more protections under the law than gay people
why do so many want to drink the hatorade?

Is religion more of a choice than homosexuality?

Does religion give many North Carolinians the right
to discriminate against whomever they want
because the bible said so?

Are some not using religion
to circumvent the first and 14th amendments?

"...through love serve one another.

For the whole law can be summed up in a single commandment,

...“You must love your neighbor as yourself.”

However, if you continually bite and devour one another,

beware that you are not consumed by one another."

Galatians

Dear Billy Yow: "Roch Smith is just another one of these bloggers that’s going to change the world with whatever they do."

Abner Doon: February 4, 2012 - 11:43 am EST

"So, by your logic homosexuality is genetic and not behavioral?"

Actually, the genetic thing is factual.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_animals_displaying_homosexual_behav...

The problem may lay in the "belief" that humans are also animals?

"So, if I commit a crime or some other behavioral misdeed

I should just explain to the courts that it really was not my decision

to act in this manner I was overcome by genetic predisposition?"

Are you saying being gay is a crime?

Or should be a crime?

Or a crime against your religion?

"That is complete and utter garbage."

Nice straw man
by using a non relevent example of someone who breaks the law
and then calls the idea in question garbage
based on a flawed metaphor?

"Homosexuals are not in any way, shape, or form a minority,

they are people who have chosen to behave

in a manner that contrary to the normal behavior of the vast majority of society."

They "behave" differently from us,
so let's make them pay for being that way
thereby identifying them as a minority
which you also say they are not?

"If you are going to commit the act at least stand up,

take responsibility and accept the consequences that come with it

instead of blaming it on your chromosomes."

So you believe gays should go to jail?

Or is that still the straw man argument?

Have you ever had premarital sax?

Are two women in love
in their home
while not treading on you
somehow breaking the law?

Would you let one of your kids

date a member of a different race?

GN&R Editorial Board Shamefull Propaganda Spin on Duke and Progress Layoffs?

"...Progress Energy, headquartered in Raleigh,

...Duke Energy, which is anchored in Charlotte.

Combined, they’ll serve more than 7 million customers, including most residents and businesses in North Carolina.

Otherwise known as a monopoly?

Rate cuts aren’t likely

The deal promises benefits, such as cost savings that can be passed to consumers.

Do the last two sentences contradict each other?

If there won't be rate cuts, what are the benefits?

...Duke only promises efficiencies that can “mitigate the future rate increases we expect.”

Sometimes people mistake the way I talk
for what I am thinking.

Idi Amin

...In Duke’s current service areas, customers should watch for signs that this equalization will result in Duke rates rising to meet falling Progress rates somewhere in the middle.

Since the long-term trend for prices is up,
the equalization (good for Progress customers, bad for Duke customers),
will be hidden by higher prices for all customers.

Peter Schwarz
Professor of Economics at UNC Charlotte

Everyone should gain from this deal, or it’s not worth doing.

Is what you think others think,
what they may be thinking,
or what they and/or some others want you to think they’re thinking?

...Some anxiety is felt in Raleigh, home city for Progress Energy. While a major administrative presence is likely to remain in the state capital, that’s not the same as a headquarters.

But keeping the corporate structure in-state is still a plus by any reckoning.

How is "keeping the corporate structure in-state" a plus for the laid off workers?
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If another doesn’t say all they mean,
do they mean all they say?

A down side to the merger, which can take a year to complete, will be a loss of jobs. Duke says it will eliminate duplicative operations but has not disclosed numbers.

“I could foresee an eventual 10-15 percent reduction in the combined work force,” UNC Charlotte economics professor Peter Schwarz, an expert on the energy industry, told the News & Record by e-mail.

The two companies employ about 30,000 workers in six states. Schwarz’s estimate would mean job cuts of 3,000 to 4,500 — not all in North Carolina.

Just mostly "duplicative operations"
located at both headquarters located in North Carolina?

4,500 mid-level jobs x about $70,000 salary = $315,000,000 lost income?

30% of $315,000,000 = $94,500,000 lost fed, state and local taxes?

If there's no new jobs, how many mortgages could default?

.

How could home prices be affected?
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How much could property and other taxes have to increase on everyone else
to make up for the lost tax revenue?

Did the GN&R Editorial Board consider the increased taxation?

While no loss of jobs is welcome, there could be compensating benefits. Reliable, low-cost energy is attractive to businesses, Schwarz said. With Duke’s low rates, “industry should view the increased Duke coverage as a positive.”

How can there be "compensating benefits" if rates and taxes continue to rise?

Duke is an “excellent ally,” said Dan Lynch, president of the Greensboro Economic Development Alliance, because of its competitive rates and “extremely high reliability quotient ... I would think it’s going to be good for everybody,” he said of a possible merger.

Except for the fired workers and the increased taxes on everyone in North Carolina,
right Dan?

Can some promoting erroneous concepts
believe self-created illusions?

Greater resources

...Duke should continue to create incentives for customers to reduce consumption through weatherization, use of energy-efficient appliances and other advances.

Thank goodness

An energy hub

With this merger, North Carolina can become an energy hub — especially if Duke steps up its commitment to develop wind, solar and bio fuel.

The power industry can remain a large employer in North Carolina, perhaps with fewer administrative jobs, but also with a greater emphasis on research and development.

Sometimes I wonder
whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on,
or by imbeciles who really mean it.

Mark Twain

Some uncertainties lie ahead. The deal must meet the approval of shareholders and state and federal regulators, who should guard the interests of consumers and the public.

Why would some utility company executives
want to work at state and federal regulatory agencies
and why would some retired regulators
want to work for the companies they regulated?

If all concerns are addressed, this Duke power surge might benefit customers and energize North Carolina."

Greensboro News & Record Editorial Board

Does history rhyme? II

Little by little, business is enlarged with easy money.

 

With the exhaustless reservoir of the Government of the United States

furnishing easy money the sales increase, the businesses enlarge

more new enterprises are started,

the spirit of optimism pervades the community.

 

Everyone is making money, everyone is growing rich.

 

It goes up and up,

…until finally someone whose judgment was bad,

someone whose capacity for business was small

breaks,

and as he falls, he hits the next brick in the row,

and then another

… and down comes the whole structure.

 

That is what happened to greater or less degree

before the panic of 1837, of 1857,

of 1873, of 1893 and of 1907.

 

Elihu Root

US Senator, Nobel Laureate

If borrowing to pay for tax cuts helps an economy in the short run, do unpaid for tax cuts retard growth in the long run?

The Laffer Curve, anyone know what this says?

 

It says that at this point on the revenue curve

you will get exactly the same amount of revenue as at this point…

 

Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980, anyone?

 

Something-d-o-o economics, voodoo economics.

 

Ferris Bueller’s Day Off

 

Should higher interest rates and inflation

correlated to tax cuts and increased borrowing

eventually reduce tax revenue

following short term economic growth?

Does history rhyme?

If some lose their whole fortunes, they will drag many more down with them.

 

If those revenues are destroyed,

our whole system of credit will come down with a crash.

 

…The national budget must be balanced.

 

The public debt must be reduced.

 

The arrogance of the authorities must be moderated and controlled.

 

Payments to foreign governments must be reduced

if the nation doesn't want to go bankrupt.

 

People must again learn to work instead of living on public assistance.

 

Marcus Tullius Cicero

Roman Constitutionalist

Should North Carolina's tax revenues rise or fall as many small business owners run out of money to pay taxes and debt payments?

N.C. tax delinquents rise, adding to budget woes: They owe the state $841 million - a 67% jump from 2009…
 
…The $841 million exceeds the $505 million delinquents owed the state in March 2009.

Did state budget writers account for $336 million of unpaid taxes
in 2010/11's budget?

 
But due in part to budget cuts, the department has 17 vacancies in its collections division.
 
That represents 7 percent of the collections staff.
 
…More than a half-million individual and corporate taxpayers owe money.
 
…revenue officials have determined that $112 million of the $841 million is simply uncollectible.
 
Jim Morrill
charlotteobserver.com

George Hartzman

If North Carolina is $391 million short for 2009, and 1.2 billion in cuts are coming in 2010…?

We can ignore reality
but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality

Ayn Rand

NC forecasters expect 2 percent revenue shortfall

Tax forecasters estimate North Carolina will collect about 2 percent less revenue than first predicted this year.

The Legislature and budget office experts say the state will take in $391 million less than expected to pay for the $19 billion budget for the year ending June 30.

…A memo dated Monday also says the state will receive $788 million less than expected for the budget for the new year starting July 1.

…Legislative leaders say they may have to find up to $1.2 billion in spending cuts, additional revenues or both when new Medicaid expenses and other needs are included.

The Associated Press
Tuesday, April 13, 2010

How could a $500 million current fiscal year miscalculation by the state of North Carolina affect local municipalities?

N.C. faces $500 million shortfall: The final figure might be much higher as income and sales tax collections trail legislative projections.

Top lawmakers say North Carolina will come up $500 million short of its $19 billion budget by the end of June.

"It would not surprise me if it hit $600(million) or $700million," said Sen. David Hoyle, a Gaston County Democrat and co-chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. "But $500million seems like a given."

Revenue at the end of January was $35 million behind estimates.

…But income and sales tax collections continue to trail what the legislature's fiscal staff projected.

Barry Boardman, chief economist on the staff, said the state could face a $500 million gap when the budget year ends June 30.

…Boardman highlighted a couple of troubling trends:

Estimated tax payments are below estimates by about 5 percent.

…Also, sales tax revenue is behind estimates by about 4 percent.

…The state has shed 24,000 jobs since July.

…The biggest impact on state revenue, in either direction, will come in April with the payment of individual and corporate income taxes.

[…the state has returned 590,000 refund checks worth $406 million compared with 279,000 refund checks worth $263.9 million this time last year. North Carolina Tax Refund Delays?]

Mark Johnson
Charlotte Observer via Guarino via Civitas

North Carolina Tax Refund Delays?

Expect delay for tax refund

Many North Carolina taxpayers will soon experience a delay in the return of their income tax refunds, as the state holds on to the money a little longer during the tight budget times.

Ken Lay, the revenue secretary, said the move is necessary to make sure the state has enough cash on hand to pay its bills between now and the end of the June 30 fiscal year.

…So far, Lay said, the state has returned 590,000 refund checks worth $406 million compared with 279,000 refund checks worth $263.9 million this time last year.

…he said there would likely be future delays, although he could not predict their length.

Rob Christensen
newsobserver.com

If North Carolina Tax Revenues fell 22%...?

State tax revenues tumbled in the second quarter from year-earlier levels, as the recession pummeled consumers leading to lower income and sales taxes.

 

…The total level of taxes across the U.S. was 17% lower from a year earlier.

 

 

North Carolina  

 

Change in total taxes from 2008:                               -22%

 

Change in sales taxes from 2008:                                -8%

 

Change in individual income taxes from 2008:         -36%

 

Phil Izzo

Wall Street Journal, October 01, 2009

If the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services budget was cut 29% in 2009-2010’s state budget, what is going to get cut next?

Adoption, Adult Protective Services, Alcohol and Drug Abuse Treatment Centers, Alzheimer’s Support Program, At-Risk Case Management (Services to Prevent Abuse, Neglect, or Exploitation), Baby Love (Medicaid for Pregnant Women), Psychiatric Hospitals, Care Management of Frail Older Adults, Child and Family Teams, Child Care Provider Search, Child Care Subsidy (Help paying for child care), Child Support Enforcement, Early Hearing Detection and Intervention (Newborn hearing),  

Elder Housing Locator, Emergency Assistance (Short-Term Financial Assistance for Families in Crisis), Family Planning: Be Smart, Food and Nutrition Services (Formerly Food Stamps), Foster Care, Health Check (Medicaid for Children), Hotlines, Low Income Energy Assistance, Maternity Homes (For problem pregnancies), Medicaid,  NCRX (Assistance with Medicare Part D Expenses), Pregnancy Services at Department of Social Services (For unplanned pregnancies), Senior Centers, Special Care Center Nursing Facility, Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), Weatherization Assistance, Whitaker School (Long-term treatment program for emotionally handicapped adolescents) and the Wright School (Mental health treatment for children with serious emotional and behavioral disorders),

 

how much of which programs are going to get cut when, and what could be some near-term consequences?

 

The budget proposal

cuts the Department of Health and Human Services budget

 by 29 percent,

 and cuts education spending by almost 10 percent.

 

Bruce Mildwurf

WRAL.com

If North Carolina Tax Revenues fell 22%...?

State tax revenues tumbled in the second quarter from year-earlier levels, as the recession pummeled consumers leading to lower income and sales taxes.

…The total level of taxes across the U.S. was 17% lower from a year earlier.

North Carolina 

Change in total taxes from 2008:                               -22%

Change in sales taxes from 2008:                                -8%

Change in individual income taxes from 2008:         -36%

Phil Izzo
Wall Street Journal, October 01, 2009