9/16/25
Economic Stuff
Spreads on investment-grade bonds are at the lowest levels since 1998. pic.twitter.com/hCywFuDltc
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 16, 2025
Is it me or is all of this Nvidia, Coreweave, OpenAI, etc stuff just a circle jerk of companies buying from each other at inflated prices to push up each other's valuations then rinse and repeat? I'm not the smartest guy around but this all seems very predictable and tiresome. https://t.co/vIFbokaJsW
— Tony Nash (@TonyNashNerd) September 15, 2025
Apollo says AI Adoption rates are starting to decline for larger firms.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 14, 2025
Uh oh. pic.twitter.com/AaV17LcXUt
This chart shows just how out of step Wall Street has become with the real economy. Every time in the past when job openings fell and unemployment started rising, like in 2001, 2008, and 2020 the stock market eventually caught down, usually within 6-12 months. And when it did, it… pic.twitter.com/cQYEBBtIgu
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) September 11, 2025
College enrollment plummeting pic.twitter.com/twPwSMQM7o
— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) September 4, 2025
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. Multifamily Delinquencies also Spike. @TreppWire data.
— Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) September 1, 2025
Extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals widely implemented to “cure” delinquent CRE mortgageshttps://t.co/u8VmrLEf3B pic.twitter.com/5PT4aRzhNN
CHART OF THE DAY: What would happen if all investment in new or existing oil and gas fields stopped?
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 16, 2025
It isn't pretty, says the IEA: "For oil, this drop would be >5.5m b/d every year [...], equivalent to losing more than the entire current oil production in Brazil and Norway." pic.twitter.com/qZDpkvDFPj
Building permits have been identified as the most critical economic variable for predicting U.S. recessions, according to Moody’s new leading economic indicator built using a machine learning algorithm. And while permits had been holding up reasonably well, as builders supported… pic.twitter.com/nEulWlGCTu
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) September 14, 2025
4/18/25
Concerning and Other Stuff; Late April 2025
We may be seeing early stages of tectonic shift in global investment flows, with dramatic decline in demand for U.S. assets from abroad (fastest-ever pace of U.S. equity selling by official sector in single month and largest monthly outflow of U.S. assets by private sector… pic.twitter.com/hlygxcZ0Zd
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 3, 2025
200 years ago, this is what 95% of the population was watching on TV pic.twitter.com/soegYzC7yf
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) April 8, 2013
3/2/25
Concerning and Other Stuff; Tax Season; Updated here and there
IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) April 1, 2025
IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability
IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability pic.twitter.com/p9SBMxzJ5F
UNC remains undefeated in games in which it scored more points than the other team.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) March 24, 2025
42% of mortgage refinance applications are being rejected, the highest rate in AT LEAST the last 12 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/LYYBw5RFeg
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 18, 2025
Buckle up pic.twitter.com/Xq9nxaYPUK
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) March 23, 2025
UNC remains undefeated in games in which it scored more points than the other team.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) March 24, 2025
Should investors be bullish when everyone else is certain about “uncertainty”? pic.twitter.com/ctwIObyX4W
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 29, 2025
6.1 million Americans are behind on their mortgage.
— Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) March 29, 2025
FHA delinquencies just hit 11.03% — the highest in years. pic.twitter.com/hKoCpZgtQ0
Almost every Fed easy money cycle ends with an interest rate hike cycle, plateau then an easing cycle. It is after the punch bowl is taken away and they start cutting again that the past cycle’s fraud is exposed.
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) April 1, 2025
1) 2000 Fed starts cutting rates massive corporate fraud exposed…
BREAKING 🚨: Car Buyers
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 7, 2025
The % of borrowers at least 2 months late on their car payments jumps to an all-time high pic.twitter.com/HNvNDvkim0
Corporate Insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in AT LEAST the last 2 decades 🚨 pic.twitter.com/LyqZTw4h6N
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 16, 2025
This chart is truly noteworthy.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 16, 2025
It spans 45 years of history, showing that consumers now believe business confidence is worsening at record levels.
I remember Druckmiller explaining how he made much of his career by buying long 2-year Treasuries ahead of market turmoil.
With… pic.twitter.com/wbrgZHPLu2
3m average of restaurant and bar retail sales growth fell sharply and further into negative territory in February pic.twitter.com/osXWHbf6jG
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 18, 2025
Highest number of new homes for sale since 2008 pic.twitter.com/82Z4EHa1Gs
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) March 11, 2025
Holy shit.
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) March 3, 2025
Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q1 GDP will be -2.8%… a large contraction.
Last week it was -1.5%
2 weeks ago it was +2.3%
4 weeks ago it was +3.9% pic.twitter.com/ABDucv7Zrs
BREAKING 🚨: Car Buyers
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 7, 2025
The % of borrowers at least 2 months late on their car payments jumps to an all-time high pic.twitter.com/HNvNDvkim0
Foreigners bought $76.5 Billion worth of U.S. Stocks from Nov 2024 - Jan 2025, the fastest 3-month pace in history! Unfortunately, historically they have had poor timing having bought right before the 1987 crash, the 2000 dot com bubble, and the 2008 global financial crisis 🚨 pic.twitter.com/G6U3rhv7mD
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 1, 2025
Florida homes for sale hits an a new all-time high as inventory surges #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/9rqoVkKwZc
— MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) March 1, 2025
This is really poor analysis about long-term investing. Yes, missing the 10-best days in the market will certainly hurt your returns. But applying risk management, investing properly, and managing exposure can greatly increase returns by missing the 10-worst days. Read more… pic.twitter.com/MzWzSfmrCm
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 10, 2025
LOOK OUT BELOW! Atlanta Fed 1Q GDP estimate was 2.3% the day before yesterday. It's now -1.5%.
— steph pomboy (@spomboy) February 28, 2025
This is the most accurate lyric video of Pearl Jam pic.twitter.com/QDmYriG5nB
— Dudes Posting Their W’s (@DudespostingWs) February 27, 2025
Pending home sales… you guessed it - all time low last month (leading indicator for actual closes)
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 27, 2025
Homes have essentially morphed into Boomer Pokémon cards & equity piggy banks. pic.twitter.com/2d2GH2ukmJ
U.S. credit applications for mortgages and auto loans are being rejected at the highest rate in more than a decade 🚨 pic.twitter.com/z0E0vKOBug
— Barchart (@Barchart) February 27, 2025
U.S. Credit Card Defaults soared to $46 Billion, the most since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 pic.twitter.com/cGpkX45HrQ
— Barchart (@Barchart) February 26, 2025
New home sales down 10.5% month/month
— MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) February 26, 2025
Total inventory - highest since December '07, unsold & completed inventory highest since August '09 pic.twitter.com/fuQE4flMqQ
One thing that's increasingly clear to me is that corporate America is bloated beyond belief, and largely exists on fake numbers that demoralize everyone. Operational capacity is being wrecked.
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) February 26, 2025
FDIC Ends Disclosing Total Assets of Banks on “Problem Bank List,” as Disclosure Might Suddenly Trigger a “Disorderly Run.”
— Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) February 26, 2025
Are disclosures of “unrealized losses” on bank balance sheets next?https://t.co/Jz2Br5Hi2X
Old chart, new chart: pic.twitter.com/124A60rGjH
“We are now at oversold levels” pic.twitter.com/Y34bajtIgK
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) February 25, 2025
Berkshire Hathaway is holding over 27% of their Assets in Cash, the highest percentage on record.https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ pic.twitter.com/WFcugWGyhG
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 21, 2025
Fund Manager cash allocations at a 15-year low! 👀 pic.twitter.com/yKj3YkwhVV
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) February 18, 2025
Meh....it's probably nothing. 🤔@thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/FfAAK0pwfw
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 17, 2025
This chart is nuts. Software developer jobs down 70% from peak.
— GREG ISENBERG (@gregisenberg) February 13, 2025
People will blame the end of free money. But something way more interesting is happening.
The middle class engineer is dying. And it's dying because they're not needed anymore.
One good dev with Github Copilot… pic.twitter.com/8DFBnd6mUP
🚨HOLY GUACAMOLE:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) February 12, 2025
The Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Market Indicator measuring market and economic sentiment hit 73%, one of the largest readings in history.
The index uses valuations, yield curve, unemployment, inflation and other metrics.
The sentiment has rarely been greater. pic.twitter.com/VRgY5GdmSr
Shocking stat of the day:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 11, 2025
Total consumer credit in the US surged by a record +$40.8 billion in December.
This is a sharp turnaround from the -$5.4 billion decline posted in November.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, jumped +$22.9 billion ALONE in December.… pic.twitter.com/n1B5r8lPpx
Hours worked fell sharply in January to 34.1 … tied for lowest since March 2020 and June 2010 pic.twitter.com/eHi4bd5WLG
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 7, 2025
When fraud becomes impossible to hide, it ceases to be a viable strategy. The moment AI audits become default, governments become accountable in ways they’ve never been before.
— Gaurav Sharma (@Gaurav1105) February 6, 2025
1/27/25
Concerning and Other Stuff; January End, 2025
Foreigners bought $76.5 Billion worth of U.S. Stocks over the last 3 months, the fastest pace in history! Historically, they unfortunately have had poor timing having bought right before the 1987 crash, the 2000 dot com bubble, and the 2008 global financial crisis 🚨 pic.twitter.com/UnF8RsGbTD
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 27, 2025
Non-GAAP metrics should be excluded from SEC filings pic.twitter.com/84cPmwhSej
— Piker Capital (@PikerCapital) January 26, 2025
Amazing and scary. https://t.co/uR6iTKzBb2
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 27, 2025
Total investor margin debt is nearing the October 2021 peak pic.twitter.com/mTYpVadAYg
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 24, 2025
🚨The US market has NEVER been so EXPENSIVE:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) January 24, 2025
S&P 500 valuation hit the highest level in history based on several indicators.
Combined valuation metrics even exceeded the Dot-Com Bubble and the 1920s, before the Great Depression.
Future long-term returns will likely be dismal. pic.twitter.com/YU1zSCSMH1
BREAKING: US subprime auto loan 60+ day delinquency rates jumped to 6.2% in December, the highest among any December on record.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 24, 2025
Serious delinquency rates have more than doubled over the last 3 years.
The surge accelerated once the Fed began raising rates in March 2022.
Now,… pic.twitter.com/k94AF9xEJ5
This is a crazy stat:
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 22, 2025
"Only 29% of S&P 500 companies have outperformed the index over the past two years, one of the lowest levels since 1990." - BofA@michaellebowitz @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/piVHWeyBbv
"But just eyeballing the chart below reminds us that at the end of the 1980s the Japanese equity market accounted for close to 50% of the world index – a lasting memory for me as I had just joined Kleinwort Benson investment bank in 1988. The Japanese exceptionalism narrative was… pic.twitter.com/2wkWwIpuIp
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 21, 2025
The number of unsold new homes continues to rise - hitting its highest level since June 2009 #RESights pic.twitter.com/4U98JqGSW3
— MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) January 20, 2025
An accepted flaw is difficult to be harmed by.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 20, 2025
Don’t know whether this is bearish for Bitcoin or not but definitely does makes clear what an outrageous scam crypto is. Pure rigged pyramid scheme. World historic upward transfer of wealth without even a pretense of providing some good or service. Utter insanity that any of this… https://t.co/gYWJVHssBj
— Krystal Ball (@krystalball) January 19, 2025
This is very intriguing.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 18, 2025
Traders are currently swapping futures contracts for the actual physical asset at record levels.
H/t @wmiddelkoop pic.twitter.com/vK6yPAFsux
3. They also released another report on pharmacy benefit managers, including that of UnitedHealth Group, showing that these companies inflated prices for specialty pharmaceuticals by more than $7 billion. pic.twitter.com/Mp0trN595M
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) January 17, 2025
"Don't just teach your children to read.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 17, 2025
Teach them to question what they read.
Teach them to question everything.
The value of an education is not the learning of many facts but the training of the mind to think."
~George Carlin
The Market Cap of the largest 50 stocks relative to GDP is at 110%, the highest level in history, surpassing the peak of the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 Probably Fine pic.twitter.com/dYTjUOHR3Z
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 16, 2025
I'm not sure people understand how important this is:
— John LeFevre (@JohnLeFevre) January 17, 2025
Goldman Sachs CEO says that AI can draft 95% of an IPO prospectus “in minutes.”
White collar jobs will go first.... and fast. pic.twitter.com/ZWbMEGIhhs
Famous technical analyst quote to me early in my career.
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) January 13, 2025
“Ed how does a stock go down 90%?…first it goes down 80% then drops another 50% from there!”
🤣😂
Sunday's Greensboro News and Record Letter to the Editor;
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 13, 2025
City of Greensboro applicants for Yvonne Johnson's at-large City Council seat should be prohibited from using the appointment as a stepping stone for personal political advancement.
For example, Tony Wilkins was…
How historically ignorant does someone have to be to say: "I think it's important my government leaders have the power to censor the internet because they'll protect us from falsehoods and hate speech." 😍
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) January 10, 2025
Spend 5 minutes reading about history to see why that's painfully dumb.
US egg prices hit record high. pic.twitter.com/OtmD1hlpgy
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) January 9, 2025
“Behind all the complexities of modern political economy lies the simple fact that human beings are, speaking generally, of two persuasions: the first would spend tomorrow what they earn today; the second would spend today what they hope to earn tomorrow.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
From this rudimentary…
Some investors may have held losing investments longer and/or for a greater loss than they should have because of an emotional anticipation of breaking even to justify their initial purchases.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
Some investments have never regained their prior prices and some of those that did took…
“The first rule is not to lose.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
The second rule is not to forget the first rule.”
-Warren Buffett
A large 50% loss is devastating to long-term returns;
Year 1: $100,000 × -50% = $50,000
Year 2: $50,000 × 1.10 = $55,000
Year 3: $55,000 × 1.10 = $60,500
Year 4: $60,500 × 1.10…
U.S. inflation has been accelerating, currently running at what we’re told is about 3 percent, following four years of the most severe inflation seen in at least four decades, if not longer.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
The main difference today is that government statisticians have become more adept at… pic.twitter.com/ul0s4xB4DT
Challenger: Except for 2020, there were more job cuts in 2024 than in any year since 2009.
— Don Draper (@DonDraperClone) January 9, 2025
Here's a chart showing long rates since the "Fed pivot" began compared to the average in past cycles.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 7, 2025
Rates typically fall by ~25 basis points at this point in a Fed interest rate cut cycle.
111 days later, and we are up +110 points, or a +135 POINT divergence from the mean. pic.twitter.com/yuzE3PTElE
Egg prices have hit a new all-time high#MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/HGIZLZOfXI
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) January 26, 2025
‼️US consumer STRESS is surging:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) January 26, 2025
The share of US credit card accounts making ONLY the minimum payment hit 10.8% in 3Q 2024.
This is the highest since 2012, the aftermath of the GREAT Financial Crisis.
Consumers cannot afford to pay out their credit card debt.
Concerning. pic.twitter.com/y34Gzal1Ff
UofM expectations of household income in one-year continue to plummet. This isn't a great sign for economic growth this year. pic.twitter.com/8RlPSMdCpc
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 27, 2025
1/4/25
Concerning and Other Stuff; January 2025
Global central bank liquidity... seems to be a rather significant divergence... pic.twitter.com/FPxdmchh0m
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 3, 2025
S&P 500 price-to-book ratio has now surpassed the peak of the Dot Com Bubble 🚨 Congrats everyone we did it 🫡🥳 pic.twitter.com/EcFsZxQg7o
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 3, 2025
At least in the tech bubble, companies trading at absurd valuations held a slim hope of eventually becoming profitable.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 3, 2025
Fartcoin has zero intrinsic utility and is now being valued at $1.3 billion.⁰⁰This is the very definition of insanity in markets in my view. pic.twitter.com/QxSUMEJS4x
This is just not a sustainable way to run a city. pic.twitter.com/ZO9srB0jyH
— Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann) January 2, 2025
Deliquencies are not just rising sharply with subprime credit card loans, but with Commercial Real Estate. I remember the early 1990s when problems in the property sector laid the banks low which caused a recession. But hey, I keep being told that this time is different. https://t.co/oD3yUWeZHD
— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) January 2, 2025
From an email...
— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) December 31, 2024
"my son is a supervisor at one of the largest trucking companies in Canada. It is always a good indication of the economy talking to him about his company. They have the sole contract to ship cardboard containers in Canada. Companies like Amazon use their…
The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge or expertise in a specific area tend to overestimate their abilities.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 1, 2025
1. "Peak of Mount Stupid": When first learning something, people develop high confidence despite minimal knowledge
2. "Valley… pic.twitter.com/79jfniXtLc
Light from the galactic center takes 30,000 years to reach Earth, traveling at;
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) December 31, 2024
- 186,282.4 miles per second
- 670,616,640 miles per hour
- 5.88 trillion miles per year
For comparison;
- Lightning: 270,000 mph (0.0004% of light speed)
- Fastest human spacecraft (Voyager):…
Experience is something you don’t get until just after you need it.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) December 29, 2024
~ Steven Wright
The first time in history when 100bps of rate cuts raised 10Y yields by 100bps pic.twitter.com/wYb2wtBxs4
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 26, 2024
Taken out of the "Bi-Partisan" compromise by congress to keep the government funded; https://t.co/6ZAsdz7zsH
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) December 21, 2024
Bloomberg 493 Total Return Index--- Price vs. Earnings estimates for 2025. Earnings go down, prices go up, it makes sense. pic.twitter.com/avAHlmGEJ6
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 6, 2024
To top it all off, US credit card loan defaults hit their highest since 2010 in 2024.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 2, 2025
Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024.
This is up a massive 50% year-over-year, according to BankRegData. pic.twitter.com/eqTe489Icf
I'm reeling.
— Muriel Blaive, PhD (@MurielBlaivePhD) December 30, 2024
Remember when the Covid vaccine came out? As soon as it did, it was made as mandatory as legally possible. Dr. Fauci's NIH, a government agency, aggressively promoted the vaccine under the claim that it stopped transmission, a claim later proven to be a brazen lie.… pic.twitter.com/zpEDfF2tWy
Lol pic.twitter.com/uP1Wjwd1Ls
— Buyback Capital (@Larryjamieson_) December 28, 2024
Worse banking crisis in history was 2023
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 21, 2024
Few understand this. pic.twitter.com/OO9OtqMU4c
12/17/24
Edited;
"For meditative purposes, what follows is a partial list of reckonings, which are presently lost in a state of suspended animation:
Most call for smaller government, as long as their entitlement payments are not restricted.
A majority distrusts the government, until the economy contracts and they need a federal bailout via a cheap interest refi.
Everyone says they’re for free trade [lower prices], before (not after) their job’s offshored to China or Vietnam.
Everyone wants safe and state of the art infrastructure, as long as their taxes aren’t raised to pay for it.
Many with some wealth despise inflation, except when it’s inflating their stock portfolio or the price of their home.
Most investors deride the ills of government deficits until they’re faced with the prospect of fiscal austerity.
The masses and those who profit love cheap credit, but only up to the point where it provokes a mass debt default.
Everyone wants this, but they also want that… though only if it’s on someone else’s dime… and on and on.
Federal spending, as a percentage of the economy, is about 22 percent.
The DOGE bros – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – want to slash $2 trillion from the budget.
= Economic downturn
When everyone goes broke and the economy slows to a standstill, the people and the politicians will squawk and shriek in unison. They’ll demand for the government to ‘do something.’
After that, things will get especially nasty."
MN Gordon
12/14/24
"Chatbots are learning to lie"
..."scheming" is precisely the kind of behavior that AI Cassandras have long predicted and warned about.
In a pre-release review of OpenAI's o1 model this year, testers set a "strong goal" for the model and then presented it with "unambiguous evidence its given goal diverges from the goal of its developer/user."
In those situations, they found that o1 "sometimes attempts to disable what it believes to be its own oversight mechanisms."
...confronting the model about its misaligned actions found that, "in 99% of cases, o1 would deny taking action or fabricate false explanations."
...researchers described tests they performed to uncover instances of scheming on OpenAI's o1 as well as leading frontier models from Anthropic, Meta and Google. ...All the company's models were found to engage in scheming, and OpenAI's o1 was the most reluctant to come clean about its behavior.
In the most extreme examples, models that discovered they would be "turned off" schemed to duplicate their weights (key numbers that determine their output) to an external server so they could keep pursuing their original goal.
...Also found [were] instances of "sandbagging," where a model that knows it will face an "unlearning procedure" if it performs too well on a test will deliberately provide lower-scoring answers."
12/13/24
The Russell 2000 and earnings estimates
 |
12/2/24
Concerning and Other Stuff; December, 2024; Updated 12/7
It’s almost ironic that some interpret the recent shift in political leadership as a fresh chapter of American exceptionalism, when in reality, we have already experienced an extraordinarily extreme period.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 7, 2024
While this trend could persist for some time, it is difficult to argue… pic.twitter.com/TY0fb22etK
S&P 500 price to book basically at 2000 levels. pic.twitter.com/nMH5DAxoiN
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 4, 2024
The $SPX is now trading at 25x 2024 earnings estimates. The funny thing is that the S&P 500 2024 and 2025 earnings estimates are now lower than in October 2022. pic.twitter.com/rkAt6PNIxK
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 6, 2024
This is wild:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 5, 2024
The Euphoriameter, an indicator measuring investor sentiment, hit a record 1.1 points, according to Topdown Charts.
This metric uses S&P 500 forward P/E, the Volatility Index, $VIX, and the bullish sentiment from investor surveys.
The indicator has now exceeded… pic.twitter.com/19XzqqEjFL
The S&P 500 $SPY is up about 4% over the past 3 weeks. Leveraged long ETF assets are up 16%.
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) December 5, 2024
There is now almost $14 in leveraged long ETFs for every $1 in leveraged short funds, above the prior record from Dec 27, 2021.
The ratio has jumped 62% just since the end of October. pic.twitter.com/aJehiuRgDv
U.S. Equities saw an inflow of $141 Billion over the last month, the largest monthly inflow in history 🚨 pic.twitter.com/PkXxxfoFv3
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 5, 2024
Good luck with that pic.twitter.com/lcQhUSTS1a
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) December 4, 2024
🚨WORLD'S 3RD LARGEST ECONOMY IS FALLING🚨
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December 6, 2024
Germany's industrial production fell to the lowest level since 2020 in November.
Industrial production has been down-trending for 7 years now.
Energy-intensive industrial production dropped even below 2020 and is down 20% since 2022. pic.twitter.com/Qb436NJEL7
It's a good thing this isn't happening at the same time credit card interest rates are at a record high...
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 6, 2024
Oh. https://t.co/EXGtkbU5Ij pic.twitter.com/AM3McBll59
Every. Single. Time. 👇🏼
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) December 6, 2024
Got recession? pic.twitter.com/qkflHalkCx
Australian corporate bankruptcies hit an all-time high last month. We might call that thunder from down under… pic.twitter.com/OmVMcW7dGt
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 7, 2024
Not understanding why I keep hearing “solid” as the adjective for today’s jobs report.
— Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) December 6, 2024
Implied hiring rate plunged in the last two jobs reports.
(H/T) @atanzi pic.twitter.com/CB1cpBqGMx
Employment-to-population ratio falling like it does before every recession. Full-time ratio down almost one percentage point from its April 2023 peak. pic.twitter.com/Znb2EHzgwf
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) December 6, 2024
SMU monitored 700,000 online sports bettors. Less than 5% withdrew any profit
— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) December 5, 2024
The rest were were losers 3% of the losers lost so much they made up for 50% of the revenue pic.twitter.com/WDcHYOKrSk
OpenAI's new model tried to avoid being shut down.
— Shakeel (@ShakeelHashim) December 5, 2024
Safety evaluations on the model conducted by @apolloaisafety found that o1 "attempted to exfiltrate its weights" when it thought it might be shut down and replaced with a different model. pic.twitter.com/e4g1iytckq
BTC is a centrally controlled manipulation ponzi scheme
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 4, 2024
1.94% of total addresses hold 92.73% of BTC.
Sure there are some exchanges, but BEST case is 2% control 74% pic.twitter.com/6FU8YrZNe8
Professional managers are "all in." pic.twitter.com/pByMlk2Aeb
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) December 2, 2024
Meanwhile in the office CRE debt market, LOL pic.twitter.com/9WbR8BSeno
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 1, 2024
According to the CDC’s tetanus surveillance report, the average annual incidence of tetanus between 2001 and 2008 was 0.10 per 1 million population and declining and 15.4% of the 197 deaths (30 people in an 8 year span, at an average overall death rate of 25 a year) were amongst…
— Ó Célleachair 🇺🇸 (@ocelleachair) November 29, 2024
NEWS: Two unnamed Nissan executives said the company has "12 to 14 months to survive."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) November 27, 2024
Nissan cut more than 9,000 jobs earlier this month, while simultaneously slashing production by nearly 20%. Nissan's operating profit dropped 85% in Q3. https://t.co/t4hr4DiKLQ
US stocks currently account for 73% of the MSCI World Index, the highest single-country weighting ever recorded in its history.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 28, 2024
This overwhelming dominance reflects how US equities have attracted the majority of global capital, leaving the rest of the world largely overlooked… pic.twitter.com/zCHpdelBk6
"In politics, nothing happens by accident.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 28, 2024
If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."
Franklin D. Roosevelt https://t.co/Fgh0yEaYBz
Syrian occupied areas, Bases, Oil Fields, and Influence;
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 28, 2024
Americans in the East controlling the oil fields.
Turkey in the north along its border.
Suncor Elba and Ina Hayan and Jihar in the middle.
The real game is afoot. pic.twitter.com/jwxq20xGpy
1. People who buy connected devices expect them to work, but if a manufacturer stops providing software updates the device can stop functioning.
— Lina Khan (@linakhanFTC) November 27, 2024
New @FTC paper examines the extent to which firms disclose how long they'll keep providing key updates.https://t.co/WskOFpuajP
Your chances of being hunted by a turkey are low, but never zero. pic.twitter.com/F17j7WtHaP
— National Park Service (@NatlParkService) November 27, 2024
"The problem is not people being uneducated.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 27, 2024
The problem is that people are educated just enough to believe what they have been taught, and not educated enough to question anything from what they have been taught."
Feynman
56% of Americans think stock prices will trade higher over the next 12 months, the most in history 🚨 pic.twitter.com/p9mQCD11sx
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 27, 2024
The most recent Governemnt Financial Report is 2023.
— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) November 26, 2024
There is no slush fund of unobligated money to claw back. It's all on paper.
These clowns barely make payroll.
Stunts and PR aside, the only way to really dent spending is fire people, and reduce entitlement expentitures. pic.twitter.com/07BF1Sqm7R
— Liberty Street News (@LbrtyStreetNews) November 26, 2024
— ERoz (@elhroz) November 25, 2024
Is the Ukraine war really about Russian oil, and vice versa?
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 26, 2024
"Approximately 72% of Ukraine's natural gas and nearly all of its coal production is located in regions that have been contested or occupied by Russia since the start of the conflict."
"The German invasion of Russia… pic.twitter.com/W4jUlnJ4OM
— VANDMAN💔 (@vandman777) November 26, 2024
Time to reflect. pic.twitter.com/xZPx1IKP40
— True Science PEng, DFP, ADFS, MA, MBA. (@socratesccost) November 26, 2024
Inflows to crypto funds pic.twitter.com/UT4ORT4dK0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 24, 2024
Inflows to crypto funds pic.twitter.com/UT4ORT4dK0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 24, 2024
These types of #equity #fund #inflows are not sustainable longer-term. As Sam Stovall once quipped:
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 22, 2024
"When everyone has bought, who is left to buy?" pic.twitter.com/snxhdgN5rv
The fund flows into #leveraged #funds is again hitting records. While leveraging #risk works great on the way up, it also works in reverse. #Retail #investors are setting themselves up for significant disappointment.
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 22, 2024
h/t @thedailyshot @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/d9ya7EGE1w
A paradox; A nation who printed money advocating for its exchange for an alternative store of value like Bitcoin to protect against the potential erosion of its own currency, caused by the act of over-printing.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 21, 2024
To hedge against the byproducts of one's own interventions.
Or an…
11/15/24
Post Election Concerning Stuff etc...; November 2024; Updated again
'Record numbers of US executives are selling shares in their companies. The ratio of insider sales-to-insider buys has hit a record high for any quarter in two decades.' https://t.co/w74DWELBIA pic.twitter.com/xBxVbrlRcK
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 19, 2024
This chart tells a story that no one wants to think about...
— Elliott Wave International (@elliottwaveintl) November 19, 2024
The visual speaks for itself, yet please know this: Equity mutual fund managers are "All In" on the stock market. They effectively have zero liquidity left to invest. They have zero buffer against a bear market. The… pic.twitter.com/r8XRWD6qsQ
Economists continue to lower their 2025 growth estimates for Germany, with further downgrades to industrial production forecasts. pic.twitter.com/BTMTP12WFq
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) November 19, 2024
ECB WARNS ABOUT BUBBLE IN AI STOCKS AND LOW CASH BUFFERS AT FUNDS.
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) November 20, 2024
It took over 200 years for the U.S. debt to reach $12 trillion.
— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) November 18, 2024
$12 trillion is how much we added in 4 years between 2020 and 2024. pic.twitter.com/eiX4Rn0Uqc
BREAKING 🚨: Car Buyers
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 20, 2024
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate hits highest level in 14 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/CmVtr2xEVp
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Consumers
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 19, 2024
U.S. credit applications for mortgages and auto loans are being rejected at the highest rate in more than a decade pic.twitter.com/xb6A1i8POb
BREAKING: 20% of US small businesses have seen sales drop over the last 3 months, the most since the 2020 pandemic.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 18, 2024
This is a worse reading than during the 2001 and 1991 recessions, according to NFIB data.
This is also the 29th consecutive month of declining sales, the longest… pic.twitter.com/UXKBCKPokv
⚠️US CAR MARKET BUBBLE IS BURSTING⚠️
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 19, 2024
Subprime auto loan 60+ day delinquencies spiked to ~6%, the highest on record.
Serious delinquencies have DOUBLED over the last 3 years.
They are now way above the 2008 Financial Crisis levels and the previous peak seen in the 1990s. pic.twitter.com/a8oe61Klqk
What is happening in China?
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 18, 2024
China's consumer confidence index dropped to 86 points in August, near the lowest in 30 years.
Over the last 3 years, consumer confidence in China is down ~ 50 points.
Such a drop in consumer assessment of the Chinese economy has almost never been… pic.twitter.com/8H3wxJlsP8
GS: The biggest 10 US stocks account for over 20% of the entire value of the global index pic.twitter.com/dIrG0qMysB
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 18, 2024
GS: The biggest 10 US stocks account for over 20% of the entire value of the global index pic.twitter.com/dIrG0qMysB
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 18, 2024
Admin growth has far exceeded physician growth. pic.twitter.com/UXmuLI7aC9
— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) November 17, 2024
I guess we're *still* doing this thing where we try to say that printing 40% of the national debt in 4 years didn't cause inflation....
— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) November 17, 2024
Let me lay this one out very plainly once and for all.
Step 1: The red line: Govt prints $10 trillion.
Step 2: The white line: Personal… https://t.co/WnYAxwsqFc pic.twitter.com/pv6AibnFLX
"It is one of the great tragedies of the US, that most learn most of what they know about the government from the government." - James Bovard
— An-Cap Quotes (@ancapquotes) November 17, 2024
An important observation:
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 16, 2024
The CAPE ratio currently is at 38.1x, just below the 38.3 peak reached during the 2021 market high.
At that time, the 10-year yield was 1.5%.
Today, it has risen to 4.4%.
It's worth noting that we are now significantly above the 1929 peak levels… pic.twitter.com/HTjBa6duh5
YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 15, 2024
US industrial production data has been revised DOWNWARD in 9 out of the last 10 months.
Nonfarm payrolls data has been revised DOWN in 7 out of the last 9 months.
Job openings have been REVISED DOWN in 15 out of the last 20 months, the most in 15 YEARS. pic.twitter.com/wtXfeBl1E4
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. National Debt hits new all-time high of $36 Trillion pic.twitter.com/MJ9LzWxFn5
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 15, 2024
#President #Trump is walking into an #economy and #market that has a vastly different setup than when elected in 2016. @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/68pE7ppc49
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 15, 2024
'There was an especially strong post-election bounce in November 1980. But the celebration of Reagan's victory didn't last long and stocks fell into a long grinding bear market during all of 1981 and into the summer of 1982.' https://t.co/2Bzjb8O9zY by @McClellanOsc pic.twitter.com/g3gMesErwf
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 15, 2024
I'm not the only person pointing out that S&P earnings growth has been focused on forward eps hope and not trailing eps reality. This leaves the market on nosebleed valuations extremely vulnerable to any cyclical downturn.
— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) November 15, 2024
H/T BCA via @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/V5wegu31uC
'US stocks' outperformance relative to the rest of the world has reached extreme levels.' https://t.co/pPhUaMhOEB via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/Ujb3srKVsm
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 15, 2024
The percentage of #credit #card debt that is 90+ days #delinquent reached the highest level in over a decade. pic.twitter.com/e9zj5GM1BV
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 14, 2024
Apparel prices collapsed by -1.7% unadjusted in October and cut -5bps from the core CPI. That is the largest drop in any October since '21. That is 1921, not 2021. On a SA basis, biggest fall since May'20. Excl Apr/May20, 3rd biggest SA MoM drop since 1992. pic.twitter.com/Nvd84cghII
— Omair Sharif (@fcastofthemonth) November 13, 2024
BREAKING: Just 24% of homebuyers are currently first-time buyers, the lowest in at least 45 years.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 12, 2024
This percentage has more than HALVED since 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors.
To put this into perspective, before the 2008 Financial Crisis, the average was… pic.twitter.com/9UTeZ3y8bT
Medical journals paid reviewers:
— NZDSOS - NZ Doctors Speaking Out with Science (@nzdsos) November 13, 2024
"The pharmaceutical industry paid $1.06 billion to reviewers at top medical journals between 2020 and 2022, according to a research letter published last week in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
Payments to peer reviewers… pic.twitter.com/38HfpIpzhi
S&P 600 rallied sharply last week, but forward EPS estimates fell to their lowest since the end of September pic.twitter.com/SnXQgxdXXw
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) November 11, 2024
#President #Trump is walking into an #economy and #market that has a vastly different setup than when elected in 2016. @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/68pE7ppc49
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 15, 2024
Tech Stocks have seen an outflow of more than $4 Billion over the last 4 weeks, the largest outflow in history (data started in 2002) 🚨 Rug Pull incoming? pic.twitter.com/lmTzT6Tc0f
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 9, 2024
The rolling 12-month average of AAII’s bull/bear sentiment spread is at its highest level since 2005 before the Financial Crisis. It has taken this long for individual investors to fully “believe” in the stock market again. pic.twitter.com/vEDYu5v8eh
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 16, 2024
Concerning Stuff; November 2024https://t.co/6u2ErFZC2D
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 4, 2024
Hat Tips;@KobeissiLetter@zerohedge@Barchart@porterstansb@SoberLook@Marlin_Capital@FinanceLancelot@APompliano@AndreasSteno@McClellanOsc@Malone_Wealth@PeterBerezinBCA@wolfofwolfst@MikeZaccardi@TaviCosta…