Changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy can significantly impact interest rates.
— g (@antzmrah) July 8, 2024
In a rising interest rate environment, the underlying bonds' market value decreases, creating a wider gap between book value (what clients see) and market values (the actual worth of the underlying… https://t.co/iNgbWMbuUJ
Economic data have been quite poor relative to expectations of late (Citi's Economic Surprise Index continues to move lower), but that has not fazed big tech investors given the NASDAQ 100's forward P/E has risen to its highest in a year pic.twitter.com/J0okGIcmYH
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 10, 2024
Does this look like a healthy economy to you? pic.twitter.com/btxXVeLVu2
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) June 29, 2024
Striking shift in Chinese people's beliefs about what prevents them being well off https://t.co/SEdbMWvjfN pic.twitter.com/cGqfe3U8Xe
— Christian Shepherd (@cdcshepherd) July 10, 2024
We're in a bizarro world.
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) July 10, 2024
As noted by the fine folks at Bespoke, the S&P 500 index has been doing one thing while its underlying stocks do another.
Anyone with a family member with Oppositional Defiant Disorder can relate to how maddening this can be. To the greatest degree in… pic.twitter.com/8R0bE5uMki
JUST IN 🚨: Warren Buffett Indicator hits 195%, the highest level in history, surpassing the Dot Com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2022 Bear Market pic.twitter.com/SAE5MbHTlY
— Barchart (@Barchart) July 9, 2024
Just a reminder
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 9, 2024
If the Fed wasn’t throwing trillions of dollars of liquidity via lending facilities into the banks they’d all be bankrupt.
What we did to support them in 2008 pales in comparison to what we’re doing now. pic.twitter.com/zSD8IpZ1pY
The six-month performance spread between the S&P 500 and S&P 500 Equalweight index has only been higher than it is now during a small number of days in March 2000. pic.twitter.com/EoZgtMWMuJ
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 9, 2024
Used Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike.
— Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) July 9, 2024
But used EV prices still +61% from Jan. 2020, used ICE vehicles +31%. When will they bottom out? Compact cars approach affordability againhttps://t.co/o6Rxhgzpkd pic.twitter.com/gRp99lDb4V
The average US credit card interest rate is holding near 23%. pic.twitter.com/CJdUSfqEAu
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 9, 2024
On Friday, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 Index over a rolling 21-day period dropped to the lowest in history. pic.twitter.com/sUSzU3xNLm
— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) July 8, 2024
"The number of new homes for sale in the Southern Region (FL, GA, TN, TX, etc.) has spiked up to nearly 300,000.
— g (@antzmrah) July 8, 2024
This is the highest level of all-time. Even higher than the previous bubble peak in August 2006.
Demand has dropped off precipitously. With new home sales in the… pic.twitter.com/Yg1KyqkHb6
"Employed, Usually Work Full Time"
— g (@antzmrah) July 7, 2024
The percent change from the previous year in the number of people employed who usually work full time in the United States from 1969 to 2024.
Clear cyclical fluctuations, with sharp declines during recessions (shaded areas) and recoveries… pic.twitter.com/6jPmNqOqav
"About $189 billion of debt on office buildings is estimated to mature in 2023 with an additional $117 billion due in 2024.
— g (@antzmrah) July 7, 2024
Monthly payments on the floating rate debt jumped to about $880K in April from just over $300K a year ago.
Approximately $1.2 trillion of the outstanding… pic.twitter.com/2ccn5F0HPS
The last 2 recessions began accelerating in June.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 5, 2024
If history repeats, the data we see in August will show a rapid deterioration of the economy in July. It will be undeniable by that point. https://t.co/rcrN52alYi pic.twitter.com/8HosRMlDwr
Heavy job losses continue to be reported in temporary help services, with the 3-month average showing a reading of -30,000.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) July 5, 2024
The trucking sector is also consistently shedding jobs.
These two sectors are always early movers in the labor market cycle. pic.twitter.com/CSNoHJaXbr
A pivotal moment with broader implications for economic and financial markets as the Japanese Yen disintegrates.
— g (@antzmrah) July 4, 2024
A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, impacting trade balances.
Exchange rate movements can influence foreign investment… pic.twitter.com/14XOeFuoL5
BEWARE: Credit card defaults are rising aggressively
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 3, 2024
This is true for all age brackets
Especially the younger generation
In fact, the 18 to 29-year-old default bracket is now higher than the peak of Covid
The situation is worsened by over $1 trillion in total credit card debt… pic.twitter.com/U2DHU9k7Fx
New cycle low for business activity component in ISM Services Index as of June ... now at lowest since April 2020 pic.twitter.com/TYGcDQEM2S
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024
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