BREAKING: US executives are dumping stocks at their fastest pace in at least 10 years.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 26, 2024
The percentage of publicly traded firms seeing net purchases from their officers and directors dropped to ~15%.
To put this in perspective, the 10-year average of this metric is ~26%.
After… pic.twitter.com/RQcieqfrQ7
Durable Goods Nondefense aircraft and parts new orders negative 127.2%. That's right: negative pic.twitter.com/42RLXFJRgi
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 25, 2024
Berkshire Hathaway sold another $800 million of Bank of America (BAC) on July 22, 23, and 24 at an average price of $42.46. It has now sold $2.3 billion over the past six trading sessions. #Buffett https://t.co/bpOZsN8use
— David Kass (@DrDavidKass) July 25, 2024
Change in Full-Time work is negative. It’s a simple rule, when negative we get a recession.
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) July 24, 2024
Yes the Fed is late. Yes the eco growth measured by GDP is a mirage caused by a 7% deficit.
I know there are rules and laws that some folks have created.
No false positives. 👇 pic.twitter.com/NnNhbb7Q9A
BREAKING: Home builders now have 102,000 completed and unsold homes for sale on the market, the highest since 2009, according to Reventure.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 24, 2024
This comes at a time when mortgage demand is at its lowest level in nearly 30 YEARS.
Meanwhile, there are a whopping 274,000 new homes… pic.twitter.com/XxMppQOGfK
ANOTHER US RECESSION WARNING:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) July 23, 2024
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits spiked by >30% over the last 2 years, highest increase since the COVID Crisis.
In the past, every time when US continued jobless claims rose more than 20% from their lows, a recession followed. pic.twitter.com/Q6qFbJ9Fc0
Car prices are crashing:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2024
Used car and truck prices are now down 17.5% since the 2021 peak, the largest decline in 15 years.
Over the last 35 years, there were only two times when prices of used vehicles saw a bigger drawdown: in 2004 and 2009.
Overall, US wholesale prices of… pic.twitter.com/LWWGkNY0jG
Quite a shift in “excess savings” dynamic over past couple years … in past couple quarters, $ amount turned negative for all income cohorts per @Moodys
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 23, 2024
@WSJ pic.twitter.com/CCja53L7h0
This is concerning:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2024
11% of US consumers with 90-day+ new delinquencies of FHA single-family loans cited unemployment as the main reason, the most in over 16 years.
An FHA loan is a type of mortgage for borrowers with lower credit scores or who do not qualify for a conventional… pic.twitter.com/ZY8rMJHnml
S&P 500 4th Year Lame Duck Election 1950-Current
— g (@antzmrah) July 21, 2024
The blue line (4th year lame duck) shows much weaker performance, ending the year with only slight growth of about 1%.
The divergence between the two scenarios becomes particularly pronounced starting in August, as highlighted by… pic.twitter.com/8qCqBdguIq
While the S&P 500 index has surged to new highs, the earnings revision trend has been declining.
— g (@antzmrah) July 20, 2024
Market prices rose as the outlook for corporate earnings became less optimistic.
Investor optimism outpaced actual corporate performance expectations.
There is a disconnect… pic.twitter.com/tFKIEew5OQ
Market Vane Bulls at 73, highest since May 2007 (they were 74 then) pic.twitter.com/qU9y37JrSB
— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 20, 2024
BofA: S&P 500 statistically expensive on 19 of 20 metrics pic.twitter.com/VtMtS9pgmM
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 19, 2024
JUST IN 🚨: China dumped an ALL-TIME HIGH $42.6 billion worth of U.S. Securities in May pic.twitter.com/P0pCqCjZsC
— Barchart (@Barchart) July 19, 2024
"There are few of us left who were in the industry during the 2000 Nasdaq crash. I was there and the one thing I have learnt is not to be complacent. Bad stuff happens and the warning signs are there if you look for them." -@albertedwards99 https://t.co/UetCHvlIQW pic.twitter.com/8jdFFwhkcp
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) July 18, 2024
Total housing units under construction are declining at an 11% annualized pace as of June.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) July 17, 2024
This is the first sustained contraction in units under construction in the post 2008 period. pic.twitter.com/q7sjmK7aNr
If you think US consumer confidence is bad, take a look at China... pic.twitter.com/1D5xPIFn0R
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 16, 2024
We have long said that if you are worried about a #stock #market correction, all you need to do is watch #credit spreads. pic.twitter.com/i4j7G2g1V8
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) July 17, 2024
When global central banks haven't increased short term interest rates.
— g (@antzmrah) July 16, 2024
Of note; 00-04
Dot-com bubble burst, 2000
Contested U.S. presidential election in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore
9/11, Afghanistan and Enron, 2001
WorldCom and Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 2002
Iraq War… pic.twitter.com/090nJjjk5Q
Consumer sentiment around purchasing vehicles (blue), houses (orange), and large household durable goods (white) deteriorated further in July per @UMich pic.twitter.com/8EPkUOzeMT
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 15, 2024
China's credit growth hasn't been this slow since 1999. pic.twitter.com/HHHEg4URJ9
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 15, 2024
Individual CDs, Bonds, Bond Funds and Stable Value Funds
— g (@antzmrah) July 13, 2024
Individual Certificates of Deposit (CDs) and Treasury bills/bonds are considered very low risk because they are usually backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Federal Reserve and/or the US…
As the Producer Price Index (PPI) is strong, showing rising prices at the wholesale level, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is soft, with little to no increase in prices for consumers, we will likely end up with a squeeze on corporate profitability margins = Lower corporate… pic.twitter.com/hldF4Vd8M5
— g (@antzmrah) July 13, 2024
The accompanying chart explains why there is a consumer revolt -- not over inflation, but over the current level of prices. Real income expectations have never been as low as they are today. Deflation is in our future. Why I’m more a believer in bonds than I am in the value… pic.twitter.com/3QMEcpq2Cr
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) July 12, 2024
Wholesale auto inventories continue to climb at a brisk pace and to new all-time highs pic.twitter.com/jFaLjMYGmi
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 11, 2024
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