Stuff July 3, 2024; US new home inventory highest since 2009, Bank lending declines, Yield Curve, Apartments, Bull/Bear Indicator, Job openings, Inflation etc...

New cycle low for business activity component in ISM Services Index as of June ... now at lowest since April 2020 pic.twitter.com/TYGcDQEM2S

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024

BREAKING: US new home inventory awaiting a buyer surged to 99,000, the highest level since 2009.

In just 2 years the number of these homes has DOUBLED.

This comes after single-family homes available for sale increased to 481,000 in May, the highest in 16 years.

As a result, it… pic.twitter.com/W6wdbJ4mG4

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 1, 2024

WARNING: Bank lending has collapsed since March 2023

Such sharp declines have usually ended in recessions

This time is not different pic.twitter.com/xvtvwB7Rjl

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 2, 2024

Updated tally of overextended warning flags in daily data - discussed in the June commenthttps://t.co/Usje0uozEG
This version restricts the red tally to periods when our primary gauge of market internals was also unfavorable. Not a forecast or stand-alone strategy. Just FYI. pic.twitter.com/gS4AQVQLq8

— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) July 3, 2024

Another major steepening of the yield curve.

The recessionary signal this sends cannot be overstated.

Just so you know:

82% of the entire curve remains inverted. pic.twitter.com/v3hprLIFgO

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 2, 2024

This chart shows the US Architecture Billings Index.

Source: @WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/GIyCRFKCAh

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 3, 2024

It's absolutely brutal out there...

Only 47% of newly constructed apartments completed in Q4 were rented within three months. That's a 60% decline from a year earlier and is the lowest share on record aside from Q1 2020. https://t.co/PQzLRNORWP pic.twitter.com/O2HldIATwg

— Piker (@PikerCapital) July 1, 2024

Hang onto your hats! The Goldman Sachs point out equities usually enter a bear market when their Bull/Bear Market Indicator is this elevated. But maybe this time is different!

H/T @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/LiXD9tCZQW

— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) July 3, 2024

Here is a look at US job openings at hotels/restaurants/bars and retail. pic.twitter.com/4qLmGz3nSn

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 3, 2024

In June, construction industry saw largest increase in layoff announcements per @ChallengerGray ... hasn't seen a spike that large since September 2007 pic.twitter.com/6zee9KAtVf

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024

This Chapwood Index seems a whole lot more inline with my actual inflation experience. The CPI is a hedonically adjusted scam…

H/T @RudyHavenstein pic.twitter.com/M2by9pZzbo

— Kuppy (@hkuppy) June 25, 2024

We've never before had so few stocks outperforming the S&P 500. pic.twitter.com/UBPAeo9pkj

— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) July 2, 2024

Right back to new cycle low for equal-weighted S&P 500 relative to cap-weighted S&P 500 ... ratio at lowest since December 2008 pic.twitter.com/V4XQ4RcbyC

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 27, 2024

It's not just stocks: treasury market liquidity has collapsed to record low levels pic.twitter.com/oYSCJTES1Q

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 16, 2022

#Household allocations to #stocks (or should I say the top 10% of households) are at an all-time high.
h/t @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/ycljYDpFoD

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) June 26, 2024

Real Estate sector falling to a new low relative to the S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/ME6eBSlhMb

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 25, 2024

RECESSION WARNING:

US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) is down 14.7% from this economic cycle peak.

In the last 65 years, such a drop happened only during recessions.

Index takes into account, US labor market data, manufacturing sector data, building permits, S&P 500 and bonds. pic.twitter.com/YlcgonkwPl

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 24, 2024

The graph shows three main data series:

Copper in recent initial resources (gray bars)

Copper in reserves, resources and past production (orange bars)

Copper exploration budget (blue line)

Key observations:

The largest copper discoveries in terms of reserves, resources, and… pic.twitter.com/bmbAkAHOHo

— g (@antzmrah) June 23, 2024