6/9/10

Oil Spill Questions of Risk and Return

In many cases what looks like risk-taking is not courage at all
it’s just unrealistic optimism


Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds


Unrealistic optimism means you are taking the risk
because you don’t know the odds


Daniel Kahneman
Nobel Laureate, Economics


Could the difference between something that “may” malfunction
and something that “shouldn’t”,
be that when something that shouldn’t malfunction does,
it’s a lot harder to fix?

The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change…
…so, in a month's time
a tornado that would have devastated the Indonesian coast doesn't happen
or maybe one that wasn't going to happen does


Ian Stewart
The Mathematics of Chaos


Can greed and fear lead some to believe
some things are less or more risky than they actually are?

Can non-random events cause random effects?


What do you do
if you possess a brief case that may contain either $0 or $1,000,000
and are offered $200,000 for the case?

What if the majority of a civilization collectively chose the case and lost
but don’t know?


Can overreaction to fear of future unhappiness
reduce appetite for present risk?

Are fear and greed stronger than resolve?

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