Calculated Risk: "Has the 2nd half slowdown started?"

Has the 2nd half slowdown started?

I've been forecasting a 2nd half slowdown in GDP growth based on:

1) less Federal stimulus spending in the 2nd half of 2010,
2) the end of the inventory correction,
3) more household saving leading to slower growth in personal consumption expenditures,
4) another downturn in housing (lower prices, less residential investment),
5) slowdown in China and Europe and
6) cutbacks at the state and local level.

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Tuesday, June 08, 2010