Historical Rhyme: If Hungary, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, The Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Peru defaulted or had to restructure sovereign debt in 1931, and Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Colombia, Nicaragua, Panama, and Paraguay did in 1932, before Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia, Cuba, Guatemala, and Uruguay did the same in 1933…?

Debt fears to sour holiday mood

 

Persisting fears about sovereign and related debt from Greece to Dubai will keep investors occupied into 2010…

 

Greek assets have taken a hammering after two credit ratings agencies downgraded the euro zone member this month on concerns about its fiscal health…

 

Standard & Poor's also cut Mexico's credit ratings this week by one notch on fiscal concerns, while worries about Britain's fiscal and economic health are nagging investors after sterling hit two-month lows against the dollar this week.

 

…Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece by one notch to BBB+ this week, saying a further downgrade was possible if the government fails to gain political support for a fiscal consolidation program. The move came just days after Fitch cut the country to BB-plus, the lowest sovereign rating in the euro zone.

 

Moody's, the third big rating agency, has placed Greece's A1 rating on review for a possible cut.

 

…Analysts warn that it may also be just a matter of time before the UK loses its triple-A rating with its public debt heading toward 100 percent of gross domestic product.

 

…”secondary deterioration in the UK's fiscal stance looks likely to translate to a structurally lower exchange rate," Michael Hart, strategist at Citi, noted.  "A ratings downgrade for the UK now is increasingly likely. This may translate to a higher risk premium in the form of rising interest rates..."

 

Natsuko Waki

Reuters, Dec 18, 2009