Could 2010’s Hurricane Season be a biggie?

El Nino May Fade, Boosting Odds of Atlantic Storms

The El Nino warming phenomenon will likely fade in the Pacific sometime in the next six months, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said today, increasing the chances of an above-average hurricane year in the Atlantic.

…If El Nino fades in June, it is one factor that may mean more Atlantic storms this year…

…The Australian Bureau of Meteorology yesterday released an El Nino outlook that said the phenomenon seems to have peaked in December and is likely to be over by June.

El Nino is a warming that occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months. It is credited with making the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which ended Nov. 30, the least active in 12 years…

…The warming in the Pacific sets up wind shear in the Atlantic that tears potential hurricanes apart before they can form. When an El Nino fades, those winds decline in the areas through which storms usually move and gather strength…

Atlantic hurricanes can be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, which is home to about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production…

Similarities to 1969

…There were 18 storms in the Atlantic that year, 12 of which were hurricanes…

…The Climate Prediction Center said the effects of El Nino will persist, showing themselves in cooler and stormier weather in the southern U.S.

Brian K. Sullivan
Bloomberg