Hartzman Tax & Fiduciary: Economic Stuff

9/16/25

Economic Stuff

Spreads on investment-grade bonds are at the lowest levels since 1998. pic.twitter.com/hCywFuDltc
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 16, 2025

Is it me or is all of this Nvidia, Coreweave, OpenAI, etc stuff just a circle jerk of companies buying from each other at inflated prices to push up each other's valuations then rinse and repeat? I'm not the smartest guy around but this all seems very predictable and tiresome. https://t.co/vIFbokaJsW
— Tony Nash (@TonyNashNerd) September 15, 2025

Apollo says AI Adoption rates are starting to decline for larger firms.

Uh oh. pic.twitter.com/AaV17LcXUt
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 14, 2025

This chart shows just how out of step Wall Street has become with the real economy. Every time in the past when job openings fell and unemployment started rising, like in 2001, 2008, and 2020 the stock market eventually caught down, usually within 6-12 months. And when it did, it… pic.twitter.com/cQYEBBtIgu
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) September 11, 2025

College enrollment plummeting pic.twitter.com/twPwSMQM7o
— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) September 4, 2025

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. Multifamily Delinquencies also Spike. @TreppWire data.
Extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals widely implemented to “cure” delinquent CRE mortgageshttps://t.co/u8VmrLEf3B pic.twitter.com/5PT4aRzhNN
— Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) September 1, 2025

CHART OF THE DAY: What would happen if all investment in new or existing oil and gas fields stopped?

It isn't pretty, says the IEA: "For oil, this drop would be >5.5m b/d every year [...], equivalent to losing more than the entire current oil production in Brazil and Norway." pic.twitter.com/qZDpkvDFPj
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 16, 2025

Building permits have been identified as the most critical economic variable for predicting U.S. recessions, according to Moody’s new leading economic indicator built using a machine learning algorithm. And while permits had been holding up reasonably well, as builders supported… pic.twitter.com/nEulWlGCTu
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) September 14, 2025

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