2/9/14

"...45,000 [Chinese] mainlanders were seeking to emigrate to British Columbia alone, with an estimated minimum combined wealth of not less than ...$11.6 billion."

"...the number of rich Chinese preparing to up stakes raises some questions. In particular: Just why are they all heading for the exits at the same time?

In 2008/9, many Chinese businesses closed overnight,
leaving workers without jobs when they showed up for work the next day.

...some could be feeling twitchy as President Xi Jinping continues his year-long anti-corruption campaign.

But there is also the possibility this is at least partly a financial decision. They don’t want to hang around as the Chinese economy finally goes through a de-leveraging process...

...In most countries, the magnitude of worries over financial distress and the growth slowdown currently facing China would be expected to show up in the exchange rate. But when you have a largely pegged currency and capital controls, it is easier to conceal problems.

Chinese Bank assets up $15.4 trillion since 2008,
while US bank assets up $2.1 trillion = debt bubble?
 

This means it is prudent to watch for other signs of distress emerging in the financial system. To the recent jump in interbank rates and solvency problems with shadow-bank wealth-management products, perhaps we can now add a surge in the numbers of Chinese people itching to leave?

...one way to read this emigration surge is a vote of no confidence by China’s new wealthy.

...at a Chinese New Year lunch last week, one of the diners said he had this very discussion in Shanghai with colleagues the previous week, and all 10 of them said they would shift their savings to U.S. dollars if they were they free to do so.

...Since 2009, Hong Kong banks have lent almost $400 billion to the mainland, equating to more than 150% of gross domestic product.

Didn't Iceland do the same thing, only different with Europe?

Hong Kong will want to be reassured its loans will get paid back before too much money exits China.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rich-chinese-line-up-to-leave-china-2014-02-09?link=MW_home_latest_news
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Tick Tock

The Chinese government let their economy go as fast as they could after 2008/9, and now they/we get to deal with the consequences.

Other country's currency/debt will most likely get taken down before China's, but China may speed the process with its internal economic struggles to come.

This appears to be a deflationary indicator, as money supplies fall as debt defaults.

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