On 9.7% Unemployment

Unemployment rose to 9.7%. Some take comfort in that unemployment in the Establishment Survey…was only down by 216,000.

…And there are reasons to think the picture may be worse than that. Here are a few thoughts from David Rosenberg:

 

"What was really key were the details of the Household Survey, which provide a rather alarming picture of what is happening in the labor market.

 

First, employment in this survey showed a plunge of 392,000, but that number was flattered by a surge in self-employment (whether these newly minted consultants were making any money is another story) as wage & salary workers (the ones that work at companies, big and small) plunged 637,000 - the largest decline since March.

 

…As an aside, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes a number from the Household survey that is comparable to the nonfarm survey, ...and on this basis, employment sank - brace yourself - by over 1 million, which is unprecedented.”

 

John Mauldin quoting David Rosenberg

Frontline Thoughts, September 4, 2009