Transmission from person to person in this country
is increasingly common
There is evidence that sporadic cases are arising
with no apparent link either to cases elsewhere in the UK
or to travel abroad
Sir Liam Donaldson
Chief Medical Officer
A 1918 to 1919 influenza pandemic
which may have killed about 675,000 US citizens
of more than 40 million others worldwide
occurred in three waves
The first wave was relatively small in scope
and seemed to have significantly eased
during the summer of 1918
In late August of 1918
the second wave of the flu began in much higher numbers
in several different parts of the world
at the same time
peaking in the colder months of October and November
coinciding with flu season
The third wave
primarily occurred in the southern hemisphere
in the first half of 1919
which also correlated to the onset of winter
Similar Flu-like epidemics
occurred in 1729, 1781, 1830, 1857, 1889
1957, 1968, 1976, 1989 and 2003
Government officials admitted last night
that illness rates from the virus could reach 50 per cent
The workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent
at the pandemic's peak
In the unlikely event that every school closed
this could rise to 35 per cent
£42bn losses are predicted to hit Britain
as a result of a three per cent fall in gross domestic product
due to the swine flu pandemic
…based on a 30 per cent infection rate
should a pandemic begin in October and last for six months
The influenza pandemic of 1918 and 1919
the most lethal influenza pandemic ever
had a mortality rate of about 2.5%
2½ people died for every 100 that caught the flu
or 25 per 1,000
250 per 10,000
25,000 per million
or 25,000,000 per billion
30% of 6,700,000,000 = 2,010,000,000
2.5% of 2,010,000,000 = 50,250,000
…deflation is a "significant risk"
as a result of the pandemic's impact on the economy
putting back economic recovery by two years
A $2.5 trillion cut in global GDP is a possibility
Swine flu 'could infect up to half the population'
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