6/20/09

Swine Flu VIII

Transmission from person to person in this country


 is increasingly common


 


There is evidence that sporadic cases are arising


 with no apparent link either to cases elsewhere in the UK


 or to travel abroad


 


Sir Liam Donaldson


Chief Medical Officer


A 1918 to 1919 influenza pandemic


which may have killed about 675,000 US citizens


of more than 40 million others worldwide


occurred in three waves


 


The first wave was relatively small in scope


and seemed to have significantly eased


during the summer of 1918


 


In late August of 1918


the second wave of the flu began in much higher numbers


in several different parts of the world


at the same time


peaking in the colder months of October and November


coinciding with flu season


 


The third wave


primarily occurred in the southern hemisphere


in the first half of 1919


which also correlated to the onset of winter


 


Similar Flu-like epidemics


occurred in 1729, 1781, 1830, 1857, 1889


1957, 1968, 1976, 1989 and 2003


 


Government officials admitted last night


that illness rates from the virus could reach 50 per cent


 


The workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent


at the pandemic's peak


 


In the unlikely event that every school closed


this could rise to 35 per cent


 


£42bn losses are predicted to hit Britain


as a result of a three per cent fall in gross domestic product


due to the swine flu pandemic


 


…based on a 30 per cent infection rate


should a pandemic begin in October and last for six months


 


The influenza pandemic of 1918 and 1919


the most lethal influenza pandemic ever


had a mortality rate of about 2.5%


 


2½ people died for every 100 that caught the flu


or 25 per 1,000


250 per 10,000


25,000 per million


or 25,000,000 per billion


 


30% of 6,700,000,000 = 2,010,000,000


 


2.5% of 2,010,000,000 = 50,250,000


 


…deflation is a "significant risk"


as a result of the pandemic's impact on the economy


putting back economic recovery by two years


 


A $2.5 trillion cut in global GDP is a possibility


 


Swine flu 'could infect up to half the population'


Jonathan Owen


The Independent, June 21, 2009

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