6/2/09

Has Globalization Peaked?

 


 …If historians look back on today's severe downturn


with its crumbling markets, rising unemployment


 and massive government interventions


 they could well be busy analyzing how globalization


 the spread of trade, finance, technology


and the movement of people around the world


 went into reverse…


 


…For generations, the deficits that we have run this past decade


and the trillions of dollars we are spending


now mean we will be highly dependent on foreign loans


 from China, Japan and other parts of the world…


 


 


…In the last quarter of 2008, U.S. GDP dropped by 6.2%...


 the U.K. by 5.9%, Germany by 8.2%, Japan by 12.7%


 and South Korea by 20.8%. Mexico


 


 Thailand and Singapore and most of Eastern Europe


are also in deep trouble


 


In every case, employment has been plummeting


 


 


…So far popular demonstrations


against government policies have taken place


 in the UK, France, Greece, Russia


and throughout Eastern Europe


and the governments of Iceland and Latvia


have fallen over the crisis


 


The Japanese government is offering to help


a broad array of its corporations


but certainly not subsidiaries of foreign companies in Japan…


 


…Western European banks that were heavily invested


in countries such as Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Baltics


have pulled back their credits


causing a devastating deflation throughout Eastern Europe


 


…In the 1930s


when capital flows and trade among countries collapsed


 and every country went its own way


world growth went into a ditch


 political ties among nations deteriorated


nationalism and populism


 combined to create fascist governments in Europe and Asia


 and a world war took place


 


 


 It took at least a generation


 for globalization to get back on track


 


Jeffrey E Garten


Yale School of Management


Held economic and foreign-policy posts


 in the Nixon, Ford, Carter and Clinton administrations


 


If financial markets are mirrors of mass psychology


and many simultaneously experience anxiety, depression, stress


emotional instability, unresolved grief, unemployment, homelessness academic problems, career burnout, sleep disorders


loss of confidence and self-esteem along with feeling deceived


what does the recovery process of a nervous breakdown involve?

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