The Birth Death Adjustment and Unemployment

If monthly unemployment appears to have peaked in January 2009

coincident

with the Birth/Death Adjustment’s semi-annual benchmark revision

which subtracted 356,000 jobs (Month 13)

 

could the appearance of cyclical low water mark be misconstrued

if the Birth Death Adjustment added 134,000 jobs in February

114,000 in March

226,000 April

and 220,000 in May as the unemployment rate spiked?

   

The great majority of mankind

are satisfied with appearance as though they were realities

and are often more influenced by the things that seem

than those that are

 

Niccolo Machiavelli