3/30/09

Does complexityincrease the likelihood of complication?







Iraqi security forces, supported by US troops


…arrested Adil al Mashadani


the leader of the Fadhil Awakening group


 


His men responded with fury, indignation - and gunfire


 


Five Iraqi soldiers - including an officer, according to one report


were taken hostage


 


Their fate is still unknown


 


Numerous Iraqis have told me


they do not believe the new peace here is permanent


 


They say many members of the old regime


remain angry that they lost their status


 


A widely expressed fear here


is that these "remnants" have been only temporarily suppressed


 


…that they are "sitting on their hands"


waiting to resume their activities when American forces leave


 


…the leader of the Awakening in Baqub


…where al-Qaeda still have active units – warned


 "The government must remember that without the Sahwa


 there would not have been any security in Iraq"


 


In Fadhil, before the arrest operation on Saturday


 the deputy Awakening leader Khaled al Qaisi


 told me he was also concerned


 that his men could be tempted back to al-Qaeda


 mainly because they had not been paid for two months


 


Hugh Sykes


BBC, Baghdad, March 30, 2009


 


If causes, actions or winners have effects, reactions or losers


and A is caused, allowed, accelerated, held back or prevented


is it better to pre-think what could happen to B, C and D


than not?


You’ll benefit from contributed causes


or be deterred by imposed effects


 


If an opponent’s position can be used against them


and the pinnacle of vulnerability is the moment of assault


should attack commence from defended positions?


 


Are chances better


for players who more accurately calculate probabilities the farthest into the future?


 


If players don’t necessarily follow the same rules


which can change without everyone knowing


should you break rules if your opponent does?


 


If your attack is going too well


 you have walked into an ambush


 


Infantry Journal



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