Hartzman Tax & Fiduciary: Do consistently worse than expected statistical releases indicate more or less unexpected economic volatility going forward?

2/27/09

Do consistently worse than expected statistical releases indicate more or less unexpected economic volatility going forward?

RTR 08:30 AM US PRELIM Q4 GDP -6.2 PCT (CONSENSUS -5.4), PREV -3.8

FINAL SALES -6.4 PCT (CONS -5.9), PREV -5.1

RTR 08:30 AM US Q4 BUSINESS INVESTMENT -21.1 PCT (PREV -19.1 PCT), EQUIPMENT/SOFTWARE -28.8 PCT (PREV -27.8)

RTR 08:30 AM US Q4 CONSUMER SPENDING -4.3 PCT (PREV -3.5 PCT)

Could revisions to prior economic statistical releases be an indication of the direction of future revisions?

If there are at least 15,000 professional American economists

and less than 1% foresaw the financial crisis

are most financial industry economic prognostications relatively useless?

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