One who intends to leave others better off for his having existed.

7/13/14

Updated, Updated, Updated; Walker Bergers Statistical Analysis; Mark Walker should win on Tuesday

Early voting ended Saturday.

More than 2,300 vote early in Rockingham and Guilford 

...963 people — 131 in High Point and 832 in Greensboro — cast ballots at Guilford County

...Another 600 votes came in via absentee ballot.

1694 of the 2,300 votes were from Mark Walker’s Guilford County,
about 73% of the reported total both counties.

Only 27% came from Rockingham County in early voting,
not counting the other counties in play.

In Rockingham County, voters cast 839 ballots during early voting. 


Mark Walker’s home county, in which Sheriff BJ Barnes endorsed Walker
leads the 6th Congressional District with 43% of all registered voters. 

In Guilford County, after the News and Record endorsed Matheny;

Phil Berger, Jr........6,115 votes.....28.57 %
Mark Walker..........5,909...............27.61 %
Zack Matheny.........3,458...............16.16 %
Bruce VonCannon...2,198...............10.27 %
Jeff Phillips.............1,996................9.33 %
Don Webb..................970................4.53 %


Walker should pick up solid majorities of Matheny, VonCannon, Phillips and Webb's votes, as VonCannon and Webb support Walker, Phillips is CG4C and Matheny is from Greensboro and attacked repetitively by Berger Sr funded Keep Conservatives United.
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Alamance County, whose Sheriff endorsed Walker,  represents 14% of the probable vote.

The top four primary vote recipients in Alamance County;

Phil Berger, Jr............. 1,890.........30.86 % - Berger, who attacked VonCannon and Matheny
Mark Walker............... 1,860.........30.37 % - Who was endorsed by VonCannon
Bruce VonCannon....... 880............14.37 %

Zack Matheny............. 808............13.19 %

Walker should win Alamance County.
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Rockingham County, where the Sheriff didn't make an endorsement, 
and who supposedly doesn't like or talk to Phil Berger, Jr.
who is the District Attorney who bugged courtrooms in his home county,
will probably tally more than 12% of expected votes.


But Phil Berger Jr. only won 52.26% of Rockingham County's primary votes. (2,766)

Walker won 26.37% of the rest. (1,396)

Now that most voters understand Berger Jr. isn't Sr., Berger may lose is home county, considering as much as 15% of the electorate thought they were voting for Berger Sr., and now feel misled.

The rest of the district includes Surry County 9%, Stokes 6%, Person 5%, Durham 5%, Caswell 3%, Orange 3% and Granville 1% of probable votes that will be cast Tuesday.

Only Republicans and Unaffiliated's who voted R can vote in the runoff.

As many of the voters who thought they were voting for Phil Berger Sr. 
now understand that they actually voted for Phil Berger Jr., 
the idea that a massive amount of Nepotism is involved should depress Berger votes.


Nepotism is favoritism granted in politics or business to relatives.

Nepotism is a common accusation in politics 
when the relative of a powerful figure ascends to similar power 
seemingly without appropriate qualifications.

Critics cite studies that demonstrate decreased morale and commitment
from non-related employees,
and a generally negative attitude towards superior positions
filled through nepotism. 

..."there is no ladder to climb when the top rung is reserved for people with a certain name."

Some businesses forbid nepotism as an ethical matter, 
considering it too troublesome and disruptive.

Wiki

I believe most of the few who saw the debate on Friday night
picked Walker as the clear winner.

Time Warner cable has repeated the debate to Phil Berger's disadvantage.

What more than a few insiders/reporters/those in the know have related similar thoughts
is along the lines of what John Blust spoke of in his Walker endorsement, 
which is that many are not for Berger Jr., but won't say so publicly.

Some top officials in off the record conversations in Rockingham County
have expressed the opinion that Berger Jr. does not have the temperament for the job.

There is what seems like a clearly bad relationship between Berger
and Rockingham County's Sheriff, who has declined to endorse to Berger's disadvantage.
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On July 17, 2012, the last election with a GOP Primary runoff in congressional races, 
only 220,635 voters participated statewide (3.58% total turnout).

A GOP Congressman won his 2012 runoff race with 10,635 total votes, 
reflecting a 75% drop off in Republicans participating in the 2nd round runoff

Another GOP Congressman won his 2012 runoff race with a total of 17,427 votes,
reflecting a 76% drop off in Republicans participating in the 2nd round runoff.


Sources; John Davis
and NCFEF’s Almanac of NC Politics 2014 Primary Edition

There is no GOP Congressman in this race, 
other than Coble's endorsement, which has been somewhat offset by John Blust's
and other candidates from the primary, of which none that I know of have endorsed Berger.

On May 6, 2014, if 44,136 total votes determined the 6th District GOP primary race,
and historical 2nd round drop-off ranges of 75% to 80%, 
yet the early voting looks like it has been markedly higher, 
the July 15 runoff turnout may be 14,000 - 18,000 total votes.

If 16,000 total votes are cast, 8,001 wins.
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If the following percentages are played out from the primary final results; 

Phil Berger, Jr......15,127.... x 20% = 3,025 votes
Mark Walker........11,123... x 30% = 3,336 votes, which may be low
Bruce VonCannon. 5,055.....x 20% x 70% = 708 Walker = 303 Berger
Zack Matheny........5,043....x 20% x 60% = 605 Walker = 403 Berger
Jeff Phillips............3,494......x 30% x 80% = 839 Walker = 210 Berger
Don Webb..............1,899......x 20% x 60% = 228 Walker = 152 Berger
Mike Causey.........1,427......x 20% x 50% = 143 Walker = 143 Berger
Kenn Kopf..............510.........x 20% x 50% = 51 Walker = 51 Berger
Charlie Sutherland..458........x 20% x 50% = 46 Walker = 46 Berger

http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05/06/2014

= Walker = 5,956 votes from primary voters

Berger = 4,333 votes from primary voters
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I think the Coble endorsement and Phil Berger Sr. name 
are offset by the nepotism charges, 
lack of signs in yards of residents as opposed to commercial real estate properties,
of those who may profit from Jr's ascendance, or are looking to, or already have from Sr.,
the Sheriff endorsements and the Rockingham Sheriff's non-endorsement.

Then there is a backlash from the intensely outside funded negative campaign 
tied to Berger Sr. and his cronies who have business before the state,
which Berger Jr. denied until he didn't.

If as many voters despise Phil Berger Jr. in Rockingham County as I've heard,
which includes more than a few attorneys, elected officials and those who know him
that I have spoken to, and considering Walker's actual, real life grassroots campaign
instead of the money thrown by Berger Sr. and his cronies for Berger Jr., 
and especially considering the outreach to the district via religious connections by Walker,
Mark Walker should win on Tuesday.

1 comment:

Legacy Hero said...

I agree with your assessment. But we'll see shortly.