Post Election Concerning Stuff etc...; November 2024; Updated again

 

'Record numbers of US executives are selling shares in their companies. The ratio of insider sales-to-insider buys has hit a record high for any quarter in two decades.' https://t.co/w74DWELBIA pic.twitter.com/xBxVbrlRcK

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 19, 2024

This chart tells a story that no one wants to think about...

The visual speaks for itself, yet please know this: Equity mutual fund managers are "All In" on the stock market. They effectively have zero liquidity left to invest. They have zero buffer against a bear market. The… pic.twitter.com/r8XRWD6qsQ

— Elliott Wave International (@elliottwaveintl) November 19, 2024

Economists continue to lower their 2025 growth estimates for Germany, with further downgrades to industrial production forecasts. pic.twitter.com/BTMTP12WFq

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) November 19, 2024

ECB WARNS ABOUT BUBBLE IN AI STOCKS AND LOW CASH BUFFERS AT FUNDS.

— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) November 20, 2024

It took over 200 years for the U.S. debt to reach $12 trillion.

$12 trillion is how much we added in 4 years between 2020 and 2024. pic.twitter.com/eiX4Rn0Uqc

— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) November 18, 2024

BREAKING 🚨: Car Buyers

Auto Loan Delinquency Rate hits highest level in 14 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/CmVtr2xEVp

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 20, 2024

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Consumers

U.S. credit applications for mortgages and auto loans are being rejected at the highest rate in more than a decade pic.twitter.com/xb6A1i8POb

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 19, 2024

BREAKING: 20% of US small businesses have seen sales drop over the last 3 months, the most since the 2020 pandemic.

This is a worse reading than during the 2001 and 1991 recessions, according to NFIB data.

This is also the 29th consecutive month of declining sales, the longest… pic.twitter.com/UXKBCKPokv

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 18, 2024

⚠️US CAR MARKET BUBBLE IS BURSTING⚠️

Subprime auto loan 60+ day delinquencies spiked to ~6%, the highest on record.

Serious delinquencies have DOUBLED over the last 3 years.

They are now way above the 2008 Financial Crisis levels and the previous peak seen in the 1990s. pic.twitter.com/a8oe61Klqk

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 19, 2024

What is happening in China?

China's consumer confidence index dropped to 86 points in August, near the lowest in 30 years.

Over the last 3 years, consumer confidence in China is down ~ 50 points.

Such a drop in consumer assessment of the Chinese economy has almost never been… pic.twitter.com/8H3wxJlsP8

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 18, 2024

GS: The biggest 10 US stocks account for over 20% of the entire value of the global index pic.twitter.com/dIrG0qMysB

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 18, 2024

GS: The biggest 10 US stocks account for over 20% of the entire value of the global index pic.twitter.com/dIrG0qMysB

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 18, 2024

Admin growth has far exceeded physician growth. pic.twitter.com/UXmuLI7aC9

— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) November 17, 2024

I guess we're *still* doing this thing where we try to say that printing 40% of the national debt in 4 years didn't cause inflation....

Let me lay this one out very plainly once and for all.

Step 1: The red line: Govt prints $10 trillion.
Step 2: The white line: Personal… https://t.co/WnYAxwsqFc pic.twitter.com/pv6AibnFLX

— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) November 17, 2024

"It is one of the great tragedies of the US, that most learn most of what they know about the government from the government." - James Bovard

— An-Cap Quotes (@ancapquotes) November 17, 2024

An important observation:

The CAPE ratio currently is at 38.1x, just below the 38.3 peak reached during the 2021 market high.

At that time, the 10-year yield was 1.5%.

Today, it has risen to 4.4%.

It's worth noting that we are now significantly above the 1929 peak levels… pic.twitter.com/HTjBa6duh5

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 16, 2024

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP:

US industrial production data has been revised DOWNWARD in 9 out of the last 10 months.

Nonfarm payrolls data has been revised DOWN in 7 out of the last 9 months.

Job openings have been REVISED DOWN in 15 out of the last 20 months, the most in 15 YEARS. pic.twitter.com/wtXfeBl1E4

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 15, 2024

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. National Debt hits new all-time high of $36 Trillion pic.twitter.com/MJ9LzWxFn5

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 15, 2024

#President #Trump is walking into an #economy and #market that has a vastly different setup than when elected in 2016. @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/68pE7ppc49

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 15, 2024

'There was an especially strong post-election bounce in November 1980. But the celebration of Reagan's victory didn't last long and stocks fell into a long grinding bear market during all of 1981 and into the summer of 1982.' https://t.co/2Bzjb8O9zY by @McClellanOsc pic.twitter.com/g3gMesErwf

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 15, 2024

I'm not the only person pointing out that S&P earnings growth has been focused on forward eps hope and not trailing eps reality. This leaves the market on nosebleed valuations extremely vulnerable to any cyclical downturn.

H/T BCA via @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/V5wegu31uC

— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) November 15, 2024

'US stocks' outperformance relative to the rest of the world has reached extreme levels.' https://t.co/pPhUaMhOEB via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/Ujb3srKVsm

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 15, 2024

The percentage of #credit #card debt that is 90+ days #delinquent reached the highest level in over a decade. pic.twitter.com/e9zj5GM1BV

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 14, 2024

Apparel prices collapsed by -1.7% unadjusted in October and cut -5bps from the core CPI. That is the largest drop in any October since '21. That is 1921, not 2021. On a SA basis, biggest fall since May'20. Excl Apr/May20, 3rd biggest SA MoM drop since 1992. pic.twitter.com/Nvd84cghII

— Omair Sharif (@fcastofthemonth) November 13, 2024

BREAKING: Just 24% of homebuyers are currently first-time buyers, the lowest in at least 45 years.

This percentage has more than HALVED since 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors.

To put this into perspective, before the 2008 Financial Crisis, the average was… pic.twitter.com/9UTeZ3y8bT

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 12, 2024

Medical journals paid reviewers:

"The pharmaceutical industry paid $1.06 billion to reviewers at top medical journals between 2020 and 2022, according to a research letter published last week in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

Payments to peer reviewers… pic.twitter.com/38HfpIpzhi

— NZDSOS - NZ Doctors Speaking Out with Science (@nzdsos) November 13, 2024

S&P 600 rallied sharply last week, but forward EPS estimates fell to their lowest since the end of September pic.twitter.com/SnXQgxdXXw

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) November 11, 2024

#President #Trump is walking into an #economy and #market that has a vastly different setup than when elected in 2016. @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/68pE7ppc49

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 15, 2024

Tech Stocks have seen an outflow of more than $4 Billion over the last 4 weeks, the largest outflow in history (data started in 2002) 🚨 Rug Pull incoming? pic.twitter.com/lmTzT6Tc0f

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 9, 2024

The rolling 12-month average of AAII’s bull/bear sentiment spread is at its highest level since 2005 before the Financial Crisis. It has taken this long for individual investors to fully “believe” in the stock market again. pic.twitter.com/vEDYu5v8eh

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 16, 2024

Concerning Stuff; November 2024https://t.co/6u2ErFZC2D

Hat Tips;@KobeissiLetter@zerohedge@Barchart@porterstansb@SoberLook@Marlin_Capital@FinanceLancelot@APompliano@AndreasSteno@McClellanOsc@Malone_Wealth@PeterBerezinBCA@wolfofwolfst@MikeZaccardi@TaviCosta…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 4, 2024

Concerning Stuff; November 2024

Warren Buffett In 2024:

1. Sold over $100 billion of Apple, $AAPL, stock

2. Halted Berkshire Hathaway, $BRK, stock buybacks

3. Built largest cash balance in company history, at $325 billion

4. Holds a record $288 billion of US Treasury bills

5. Now owns $93 billion more…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 2, 2024

"During the 2023–24 respiratory virus season, influenza vaccination coverage was 80.7% among acute care hospital personnel and 45.4% among nursing home personnel. Coverage with 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination was 15.3% among acute care hospital personnel and 10.5% among nursing…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 3, 2024

Buffett's cash hits a record $325 billion, up $48 billion this quarter, and up $168 billion (+94%) in the 9 months of 2024 https://t.co/hBJLWFjZIP pic.twitter.com/duq2X4g4cK

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 2, 2024

Market Concentration Risk Hits All-Time High 🚨

The Top 10 S&P 500 stocks now account for a RECORD HIGH 37% of the $SPX pic.twitter.com/37Rdyu68ob

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 2, 2024

America is all-in on the stock market

Yesterday’s report from the Conference Board showed a jump in consumer confidence to 9-month highs. A key driver of this improving consumer sentiment was rampant enthusiasm about further gains in the U.S. stock market

51.4% of consumers… pic.twitter.com/9NGXti7235

— Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) October 30, 2024

The percentage of US consumers who expect higher stock prices in a year hit a record high. Getting a bit frothy out there? pic.twitter.com/vl4rhyjUf8

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) October 30, 2024

Institutional investors sold US stocks at the fastest pace in 9+ years last week, according to BofA.

It was the 2nd largest weekly net selling by institutional investors since 2008 (trailing only Sep 2015). $SPY $QQQ $IWM $MSFT $AMD $GOOG pic.twitter.com/AZ4uNYrkZt

— David Marlin (@Marlin_Capital) October 30, 2024

Things not to say; https://t.co/jhDblHK1gu

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 23, 2024

🇨🇦 Bank of Canada cuts rates by 0.5%. The last 3 times this happened we were in a global financial crisis. pic.twitter.com/bazsgm9PLI

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 23, 2024

It took 221 years for the US to create the first $12 trillion of national debt.

We added another $12 trillion of debt in the last 5 years.

Insane. pic.twitter.com/Y4CmOGI1bH

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 22, 2024

The move in bond yields after the 50bp cut is very out of the ordinary pic.twitter.com/wWHa32rR3x

— Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) October 22, 2024

JUST IN 🚨: Warren Buffett Indicator hits 200% for the first time in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/w0NV4RaMw7

— Barchart (@Barchart) October 22, 2024

Stock Market hits most overvalued level since the peak of the Dot Com Bubble 🚨 pic.twitter.com/68LJHXQtkT

— Barchart (@Barchart) October 23, 2024

China's housing market is in free fall:

Prices of newly built homes in China fell 6.1% year-over-year in September, the largest drop since 2015.

Existing home prices dropped 9.0%, the biggest decline in at least 13 years.

On top of this, existing home prices decreased in all… pic.twitter.com/ttRehGLIo1

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 22, 2024

When people talk about stock market valuations, usually they refer to earnings. Here is a different way to see the current overvaluation. As with any valuation measure, this is lousy as a timing tool. But it does inform us about how large the eventual readjustment might be. pic.twitter.com/KQaX9liJsg

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) October 21, 2024

BREAKING: According To FDIC, Bank Loan Delinquencies Are Going Parabolic pic.twitter.com/oOZQJD5TTi

— Kevin Malone (@Malone_Wealth) October 20, 2024

From the co-founder of Netscape. LLMs are like web browsers: indispensable, but largely indistinguishable from one another. https://t.co/MD6ZrBug5F

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) October 20, 2024

Used Vehicles Getting Ready to Turn into Inflation Headwind, after Historic Plunge Had Powered Core CPI “Deceleration.”
The used-vehicle pipeline is messed up for years to comehttps://t.co/mWzm1cTMZX pic.twitter.com/zPaAgsSMx9

— Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) October 18, 2024

BofA Small Business Checkpoint:

Average monthly credit card balances per small business client are up more than 20% compared to 2019 average levels pic.twitter.com/0LwhiXOoX7

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 17, 2024

This is like a fuse waiting to be lit, in my view.

Junk bond yields currently have the narrowest spread compared to the Fed funds rate in 34 years.

This is the lowest level since June 2007, just before the peak of the housing bubble. pic.twitter.com/mVjtLF7qss

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 15, 2024

Despite large money market inflows, household cash allocations are near record lows.

Households hold 48% of their financial assets in equities, well above historical medians. pic.twitter.com/hKsoaniOiC

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 11, 2024

🇺🇸 US credit card interest rates hit 23.37% in August, a record high, according to Fed data.

➡ Over the last 2 years, rates have soared by ~7ppts ⚠ pic.twitter.com/QQSvpLmNYq

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2024

🤨 pic.twitter.com/cDCpNMEKvY

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 25, 2024

I apologize to some of you for most of you.

— God (@TheTweetOfGod) October 19, 2024

Concerning and Other Stuff 10/7/2024

Our present monetary and governmental policy diminishes our kids' future prosperity.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 6, 2024

Our present monetary and governmental policy diminishes our kids' future prosperity.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 6, 2024

You cannot do a kindness too soon, for you never know how soon it will be too late. - Ralph Waldo Emerson

— Great Minds Quotes (@GreatestQuotes) October 5, 2024

The journey of sunlight 🌞🌍🌑 pic.twitter.com/e4NDv9XaYt

— Science (@ScienceGuys_) October 1, 2024

pic.twitter.com/3WirXN2Nw7

— Natalie F Danelishen (@Chesschick01) September 29, 2024

I just had our service team at one of the largest 401(k) custodians in America confirm for me this morning that 401(k) loan requests and hardship withdrawals are “through the roof“.

The way she described it is, “like nothing I’ve seen in my career“.

Take from that what you…

— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) September 24, 2024

The Conference Board’s labor market differential fell again in September. Notice those gray bars that always appear when the differential starts falling? No doubt, this time will be different. pic.twitter.com/S4OCyNwxAI

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 24, 2024

Americans have never been so worried about the year ahead:

The share of consumers uncertain about business conditions over the next year spiked to 51% in September, the most on record.

The percentage has DOUBLED in 4 months.

Over the last 30 years, the share of consumers… pic.twitter.com/w4SSdhHAeg

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 22, 2024

Thomas Sowell dropped out of high school at 17.

He eventually earned his undergraduate degree from Harvard, graduating 𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘯𝘢 𝘤𝘶𝘮 𝘭𝘢𝘶𝘥𝘦.

But it was the 1950s; even at Harvard Sowell wasn't safe from racist attitudes of the era.

He wasn't having any of it. pic.twitter.com/BF53v1hUkS

— Clifton Duncan (@cliftonaduncan) September 21, 2024

India’s gold imports surged in August. pic.twitter.com/p2Tj6mqz6C

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) September 18, 2024

High rates are really putting pressure on small businesses

This is WORSE than September 2007, right before the Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/E1r0TbGypy

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 12, 2024

Our young delay parenthood etc... after their elders leveraged low interest rates to drive up the prices of assets they acquired at a fraction of the cost.

Now there is a surplus of overinflated assets boomers etc... are going to want to sell too few buyers of the next…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 7, 2024

My greatest accomplishment ended up being the worst thing that ever happened to me, but it ended up a blessing in disguise.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 4, 2024

Non-meritocracy oriented credentialist based justifications are bullsiht.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 4, 2024

Property taxes financially bind homeowners to government.

Illusory ownership.

A modern form of indentured servitude.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 7, 2024

Russia Set to Boost Silver Reserves in Major Precious Metals Strategy Shift https://t.co/U9xjotQL8Y

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 6, 2024

When Social Security collects more in taxes than it pays out in benefits, the surplus is invested in special "non-marketable" Treasury securities issued to the Social Security Trust Fund, meaning they can't be bought and sold on the open market.

This is how the government…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 3, 2024

When Social Security collects more in taxes than it pays out in benefits, the surplus is invested in special "non-marketable" Treasury securities issued to the Social Security Trust Fund, meaning they can't be bought and sold on the open market.

This is how the government…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 3, 2024

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good."

- Samuel Johnson

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 2, 2024

BREAKING: Total money supply in the US, the Euro Area, Japan, and China has reached a new record of a MASSIVE $89.7 trillion.

Global money supply has skyrocketed by $7.3 trillion over the last year.

This marks the largest increase in 3 years and a similar jump to the initial… pic.twitter.com/A5KrGCjCc0

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 1, 2024

As seen on social media - #DocWatson statue during the storm in downtown Boone pic.twitter.com/GFQ0dvvuB3

— WataugaOnline (@WataugaOnline) September 30, 2024

If the price of money is distorted, most prices reflect its perversion.

Risk shifted to central bank balance sheets or obscured by clever accounting isn't gone, but masked to maintain a more pleasant present at the expense of future volatility.

Unsustainable.

Debt continues…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 28, 2024

The employment component of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index just broke thru its 2020 pandemic low ... as of September, it's at its lowest since April 2009 pic.twitter.com/eAIowzRYgt

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) September 24, 2024

The efficacy of a rain dance depends on timing.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 24, 2024

BREAKING: The US home price to median household income ratio is now at 7.2x, a new all-time high.

In other words, the average single-family home in the US now costs more than 7 times the median annual household income.

This ratio is officially above the 7.1x recorded in 2022… pic.twitter.com/UYrUCZ5L9l

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 23, 2024

Up to a Quarter of Rental Inflation Is Due to Price-Fixing, by @matthewstoller https://t.co/btNry0w9Ww

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 20, 2024

pic.twitter.com/6AfdM8f3pd

— Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) September 19, 2024

As truth isn’t realizable without doubt,
skepticism is the best way to confirm reality.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 16, 2024

8,100 Chinese drones flying simultaneously, establishing a new Guinness World Record in Shenzhen.

Today, for commercial.

Tomorrow, for military operations with drone swarm technology. pic.twitter.com/5N1czENeqm

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 13, 2024

Concerning Stuff 9/13/2024https://t.co/6u2ErFZC2D

Hat Tips;@DiMartinoBooth @McClellanOsc @RealEJAntoni @TheKingCourt @JamesMelville @KobeissiLetter@PeterBerezinBCA @albertedwards99 @bespokeinvest @GameofTrades_ @WallStreetApes @DonMiami3 @hussmanjp @zerohedge…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 13, 2024

Concerning Stuff 9/13/2024

True. WHY the media chooses to lie about it is a travesty. Between corrupt “official” data and a tainted media, we may as well be living in the former Soviet bloc. https://t.co/sjKtAcyMyG

— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) September 12, 2024

Notice how this chart from the Monthly Treasury Statement (created by the Treasury Dept. staff) is graphically misleading. They do show a portion for the deficit ($380B), but that portion is portrayed as smaller than the receipts ($307B). https://t.co/C3WhIY9gYb pic.twitter.com/h92D2kmrr9

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) September 12, 2024

Aug wasn't just the worst federal deficit of FY '24, but worse than any month in '23 too; federal finance isn't improving - it's deteriorating: pic.twitter.com/zGOJXyRPpx

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) September 12, 2024

This is absolutely mind-boggling!

The U.S. government has normalized running a $2 trillion deficit.

They better hope there's never an economic downturn, or things could get catastrophic... Oh wait... pic.twitter.com/xZjW4JZkKm

— The Mad King (@TheKingCourt) September 12, 2024

The moment the world changed.
23 years ago today. pic.twitter.com/F1tKoC4eoY

— James Melville 🚜 (@JamesMelville) September 11, 2024

China’s real estate stocks are officially BELOW 2008 levels.

What is happening in China? pic.twitter.com/xZxXI8JuJf

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 10, 2024

CRE delinquencies are rising and spreading beyond the office sector.

Soft landing morphing into quicksand. pic.twitter.com/MdCSc4SJ89

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 11, 2024

Investors should not mistake the M7 for the economy. Small mom and pop companies are the lifeblood of the economy and will take the economy down into recession. A recession then could then expose the large cap cyclicals masquerading as growth stocks. https://t.co/2XVGiH9LT2 pic.twitter.com/xYYjhwU3gV

— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) September 10, 2024

Consumers expecting to miss a debt payment is at a post-Covid high and at its highest August level since 2016. Per the NY Fed’s consumer expectations survey. This has been climbing steadily since mid-2022. pic.twitter.com/e8g3shl2JW

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 10, 2024

SHOCKING: Home price relative to median income is now at the highest level ever seen

Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/SQJQmAlGC8

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) September 9, 2024

The FDA has been the victim of a horrible rumor that 50% of their funding comes from the pharmaceutical industry

In response they’ve released an official report of their funding to prove everyone wrong

Officially 47% of their funding comes from Big Pharma (holy sh*t)

“So think… pic.twitter.com/dOQtESrEMb

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) September 8, 2024

BREAKING: The US personal savings rate dropped to 2.9% in July, its lowest print in 2 years.

Savings as a percentage of disposable personal income are is at its second lowest level since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Now, the savings rate has declined for 14 consecutive months.… pic.twitter.com/LBSk2rLgEB

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 8, 2024

CAUTION: Personal interest payments have crossed $500 billion

Current levels have NEVER been seen since 1959

This sets the stage for rapid consumer weakening pic.twitter.com/xeee2drn1p

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) September 7, 2024

Restaurant Performance Index from the NRA fell last month to cycle low, down 1.3 points

Restaurants are closing at an unbelievable pace right now and same store sales are weak. pic.twitter.com/lNeInfyCmt

— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 6, 2024

This is exactly right. Neither Fed rate cuts nor quantitative easing ended the global financial crisis. The crisis ended the second week of March 2009, when the FASB suspended FAS 157 mark-to-market rules for banks. The hearing was held on March 12, 2009.https://t.co/mRbeGUCFW3 https://t.co/xFhWGVx0dQ

— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) September 4, 2024

Small bank credit card delinquency rates just hit a new record high pic.twitter.com/trpyAQtbVe

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2024

This is what an inflationary depression looks like

From Dollar General earnings call: pic.twitter.com/bNmSoIN2o5

— Golden Coast (Cassandra) (@GregCrennan) August 29, 2024

"Each of the indicators has an impressive record forecasting the stock market’s return over the subsequent decade."

Mark Hulbert pic.twitter.com/xxiF4p6P0L

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 26, 2024

1985 person asks time traveler about the future:

"Everything is the same, except we're all enslaved by tiny telephones."

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 23, 2024

If you look at the fake govt data, they claim grocery inflation is only in the 20% to 25% range overall since 2020.

If you look at the real world prices with your own eyes, most items are up 50% to 150% since 2020. pic.twitter.com/0YNk0kCWZQ

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) August 22, 2024

The depth of naïveté of the average American who thinks can print ourselves into endless prosperity with myriad historical examples proving the exact opposite. pic.twitter.com/zVL6Gy07b7

— Death Cab to QE (@DeathCabToQE) August 19, 2024

Since 2008, 60% of the US money supply was created, as the other 40% was created between 1913 and 2007.

Prices rise from the inflation of the currency, deficits and unsustainable debt issuance.

From 2008 to 2024, US Federal Debt has increased by approximately $25 trillion, an… https://t.co/QJC0hgWgri

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 21, 2024

60-Day Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Rising pic.twitter.com/HGaSWz9UaG

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 19, 2024

Here is a better chart for comparing outlays to receipts. We are currently spending 34% more than we are taking in. Can you imagine cutting federal spending 34%? [1/2] https://t.co/dtoM5NeEkQ pic.twitter.com/hXXy5AbTnV

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) August 19, 2024

EPS estimates down, stock prices up pic.twitter.com/9Dynvs6nnE

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 16, 2024

Milton Friedman said it best:

“Keep your eye on how much the Government is spending, because that is the true tax.

There is no such thing as an unbalanced budget. You PAY FOR IT either in the form of taxes, or indirectly in the form of inflation or debt.”

Fact check: TRUE ✅ pic.twitter.com/QrFNKazVns

— Cillian (@CilComLFC) August 16, 2024

Concerning Stuff 8/17/24https://t.co/6u2ErFZC2D

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 17, 2024

Concerning Stuff 8/17/24

"Central banks are hoarding gold faster than we've ever seen." https://t.co/J9XZM6jxsg via @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/Rg9zR1EhiT

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 17, 2024

University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions approaching the worst in index history (again) pic.twitter.com/nZuRFQxW6n

— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) August 16, 2024

This is incredible:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position relative to total assets spiked to 25.0% in Q2 2024, the most in at least 24 years.

The company's share of cash has more than DOUBLED in just 2 years.

To put this into perspective, the company’s cash pile… pic.twitter.com/LgMklJ5HcQ

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 14, 2024

As the S&P 500 was plunging earlier this month, retail investors were buying the dip 🫡🥳🫂 pic.twitter.com/dyzvRxUuo4

— Barchart (@Barchart) August 16, 2024

The Fed is currently sterilizing about $4.1 trillion through the RRP facility and Interest on Reserve policy, which is costing over $606 million PER DAY in interest payments to Wall Street; it's a small club, and you aint in it: pic.twitter.com/AIsDHUJRcc

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) August 16, 2024

When you read something like "$28,000 in 1970 is equivalent to $209,000 in 2022" - remember, they are using the BLS CPI to come up with this nonsense.

The CPI (or PCE) models have very little to do with real world cost of living. pic.twitter.com/AguiWQTOqZ

— Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. (@RudyHavenstein) July 19, 2024

Meanwhile:

China reported record levels of silver imports. pic.twitter.com/LYYP7JYZXd

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 15, 2024

Small businesses are in a recession:

Small business loan availability just dropped to its lowest level in nearly 11 years.

The pace of the decline is similar to the pace seen in 2007, just before the Financial Crisis hit.

Similar weakness also took place in 1989 before the… pic.twitter.com/7yOm58oh5C

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 14, 2024

BREAKING 🚨: China

Chinese Home Prices declined by the largest amount in history last month pic.twitter.com/nZ7P1BOpFY

— Barchart (@Barchart) August 15, 2024

US Retail Sales increased 2.6% over the last year but after adjusting for higher prices they were down 0.4%.

Both of these numbers are well below the historical averages of +4.6% nominal and +2.0% real.https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ pic.twitter.com/5uytcU9Gto

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 15, 2024

Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 50% over the past 3 years. That's the biggest 3-year spike since 1975-78.https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/ZRAMXIah6q

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 14, 2024

🚨U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcies are SOARING:

- Total filings +34% YoY in first half of 2024

- Small business filings up +61% YoY

- June saw the highest corporate bankruptcies since 2020

Small and mid-sized businesses, especially in consumer discretionary sectors like clothing… pic.twitter.com/lm194RzIuq

— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 12, 2024

'Weekly outflows from junk loan ETFs were at their highest level on record.' https://t.co/ipfDohcG96 pic.twitter.com/XtbYFA5H8T

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 10, 2024

What is happening here?

Real income growth expectations by US consumers over the next 5 years just dropped to their lowest on record.

Americans now see HALF the chance of higher inflation-adjusted incomes than in 2020.

Additionally, consumers anticipate their real income to… pic.twitter.com/TTiYw6iJ4I

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 9, 2024

$1 trillion in AI CapEx, who needs routers, switches or cables https://t.co/vDg0LZx4VQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 9, 2024

41% of Russell 2000 companies now have negative earnings

This number is up more than 2x since 2006

And is comparable to levels seen during the peak of 2008 Financial Crisis

This is not sustainable pic.twitter.com/CTN5a9ayaw

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 8, 2024

A leading economic indicator; https://t.co/8wuyN84H5O

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 8, 2024

Concerning Stuff; 08/07/2024

What exactly is the plan here?

Seriously asking. pic.twitter.com/GBBP4jA5Ws

— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 4, 2024

Chapter 11 Filings Reach Highest Level in More Than a Decade https://t.co/gIFa1LyCyD pic.twitter.com/piRKIWSbt9

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 3, 2024

As interest rates crash 60+ basis points in a month, we are watching the housing market.

For years, the narrative for higher home prices was that no one wanted to sell.

Millions of Americans carry 3% mortgages with over 60% of borrowers having a rate below 4%.

Soon, mortgage… pic.twitter.com/r1sANKfHNv

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2024

Deflation Expectation Effect/Deflationary Spiral Psychology

Consumers waiting for lower prices as prices fall throughout the economy

Deflationary mindset = Delayed purchasing to wait for lower prices

= Reduced consumer spending and slowing economic activity = Deflationary…

— g (@antzmrah) August 2, 2024

This is the most important chart in the world today.

It's the chart of the Japanese Yen vs the USD.

Why is it so important?

1. For 30 years Japan has 0% interest on their currency.

2. As a result for 30 years investor borrowed YEN at no cost and invested it globally. They… pic.twitter.com/1IpofcvroZ

— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) August 2, 2024

More than half the jobs added in the last year were either in gov't or paid for by tax dollars, like when the gov't gives a grant to a hospital, which then uses that money to hire a nurse - it's essentially an indirect hire by gov't: pic.twitter.com/Pstmk23xF7

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) August 2, 2024

"If you account for the (i) negative revisions, (ii) the workweek shrinkage, (iii) the Birth-Death skew, (iv) the boom in multiple job holders, and (v) the huge shift to self-employment (look ma – I hired myself!), employment cratered more than -700k in July."

David Rosenberg…

— g (@antzmrah) August 2, 2024

ISM PMI Employment 43.4

Only time lower.

1) the internet bubble popping.
2) the GFC.
3) Covid-19. pic.twitter.com/XBpS0Ape0f

— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) August 1, 2024

Share of forecasters predicting recession pic.twitter.com/QgfADA214O

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 31, 2024

The amount of rating agency fraud involved with private credit will make the housing bubble seem like amateur hour

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 1, 2024

We live in rapidly interesting times.

Feels exponential. https://t.co/uHLuBzuPqK

— g (@antzmrah) July 31, 2024

About 212,582 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout history, with two-thirds of that since 1950, with an estimated 57,000 tonnes of suitable reserves remaining.

Production has plateaued since 2016-2018, with declining growth rates in recent years.

The gold mining industry…

— g (@antzmrah) August 5, 2024

With the military guys from Russia and the US swapping spit in Israel and Iran in public, feels like another front of the same war.

It's the same war.

The oil fields on the Iran/Iraq border region

In northeastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group,… pic.twitter.com/taxn0ja7u3

— g (@antzmrah) August 7, 2024

Concerning Stuff; 07/31/2024; Delinquency, Housing, Jobs, Inflated Corporate Earnings, AI etc...

Delinquency rates on Office building loans hit 8.11%, the highest in more than a decade 🚨 pic.twitter.com/vd4Wvwl9M7

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 30, 2024

Businesses are warning investors that they are unable to pass on higher costs to consumers.

= Consumers purchasing power is squeezed = Reduced demand = Consumers are becoming price-sensitive

= Shrinking profit margins = lower earnings = lower stock prices and dividends

=…

— g (@antzmrah) July 31, 2024

This is one of the most stunning collapses from an established retailer...

Big Lots has gone from $70+ a share to $1 and near bankruptcy

Unfortunately, retail is in for a rude awakening

There will be a massive wave of retail companies/restaurants that'll crumble over the next… pic.twitter.com/2zxnHlHayS

— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 31, 2024

Regurgitation of what many times is inherently flawed/biased human created information.

Scraped garbage in without compensating the authors, sometimes inaccurate mangled garbage out.

For anything important, I run info through at least a few of the free ones to make sure and… https://t.co/6Qq5TMMJyI

— g (@antzmrah) July 31, 2024

Wells Fargo Economics:

Business leaders and financial markets have grown perfectly comfortable with the fact that they are conducting business as usual even as the security alarm, the fire alarm and the smoke alarm are all going off around them. pic.twitter.com/IH7gJ2usas

— Piker (@PikerCapital) July 30, 2024

Everyone ready for what's coming in housing? pic.twitter.com/cYtIsuUY0v

— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) July 29, 2024

Share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful fell in July to lowest since March 2021 ... pace of deceleration has picked up lately pic.twitter.com/ZNjix49Trv

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 30, 2024

What if I told you that rampant accounting chicanery has inflated mega-cap tech earnings by the largest degree in modern history? And that if you price these companies on a free cash flow basis, they're more expensive than what we saw at the peak of the Dot Com mania?

Consider… pic.twitter.com/3JbGyVGLyt

— Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) July 27, 2024

New cycle low for July ⁦@KansasCityFed⁩ City Manufacturing Index, down to -13 vs. -5 est. & -8 prior … new orders slipped to -21, shipments fell to -18, and workweek fell to -17 … employment deteriorated further as prices paid moved higher pic.twitter.com/82ieYj3BJW

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 25, 2024

Summary: changes to Treasury's issuance policies have provided similar economic stimulus as a 1% cut in the Fed Funds rate, usurping core functions of monetary policy and blocking the Fed's efforts to restrain inflation and growth.
/2

— Stephen Miran (@SteveMiran) July 23, 2024

pic.twitter.com/6jUahLDalL

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) July 22, 2024

The updated version of this chart is always worth reviewing each year.

What caught my attention this time?

The acceleration in cost for hospital services.

Wild. pic.twitter.com/I2oQkfWI3A

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) July 14, 2024

pic.twitter.com/yvQxfI2kMk

— Sal the Agorist (@SallyMayweather) July 8, 2024

$GS on the cost of AI:

"...the cost of utilizing the technology to solve tasks is much higher than existing methods. For example, we’ve found that AI can update historical data in our company models more quickly than doing so manually, but at 6X the cost" pic.twitter.com/SCF8mOi6lJ

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) July 10, 2024

Concerning Stuff; 07/26/2024; Insider Selling, Employment, Real Estate Inventory, Used Cars, Earnings Revisions, China, Inflation etc...

BREAKING: US executives are dumping stocks at their fastest pace in at least 10 years.

The percentage of publicly traded firms seeing net purchases from their officers and directors dropped to ~15%.

To put this in perspective, the 10-year average of this metric is ~26%.

After… pic.twitter.com/RQcieqfrQ7

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 26, 2024

Durable Goods Nondefense aircraft and parts new orders negative 127.2%. That's right: negative pic.twitter.com/42RLXFJRgi

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 25, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway sold another $800 million of Bank of America (BAC) on July 22, 23, and 24 at an average price of $42.46. It has now sold $2.3 billion over the past six trading sessions. #Buffett https://t.co/bpOZsN8use

— David Kass (@DrDavidKass) July 25, 2024

Change in Full-Time work is negative. It’s a simple rule, when negative we get a recession.

Yes the Fed is late. Yes the eco growth measured by GDP is a mirage caused by a 7% deficit.

I know there are rules and laws that some folks have created.

No false positives. 👇 pic.twitter.com/NnNhbb7Q9A

— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) July 24, 2024

BREAKING: Home builders now have 102,000 completed and unsold homes for sale on the market, the highest since 2009, according to Reventure.

This comes at a time when mortgage demand is at its lowest level in nearly 30 YEARS.

Meanwhile, there are a whopping 274,000 new homes… pic.twitter.com/XxMppQOGfK

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 24, 2024

ANOTHER US RECESSION WARNING:

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits spiked by >30% over the last 2 years, highest increase since the COVID Crisis.

In the past, every time when US continued jobless claims rose more than 20% from their lows, a recession followed. pic.twitter.com/Q6qFbJ9Fc0

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) July 23, 2024

Car prices are crashing:

Used car and truck prices are now down 17.5% since the 2021 peak, the largest decline in 15 years.

Over the last 35 years, there were only two times when prices of used vehicles saw a bigger drawdown: in 2004 and 2009.

Overall, US wholesale prices of… pic.twitter.com/LWWGkNY0jG

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2024

Quite a shift in “excess savings” dynamic over past couple years … in past couple quarters, $ amount turned negative for all income cohorts per ⁦@Moodys⁩
⁦@WSJ⁩ pic.twitter.com/CCja53L7h0

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 23, 2024

This is concerning:

11% of US consumers with 90-day+ new delinquencies of FHA single-family loans cited unemployment as the main reason, the most in over 16 years.

An FHA loan is a type of mortgage for borrowers with lower credit scores or who do not qualify for a conventional… pic.twitter.com/ZY8rMJHnml

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2024

S&P 500 4th Year Lame Duck Election 1950-Current

The blue line (4th year lame duck) shows much weaker performance, ending the year with only slight growth of about 1%.

The divergence between the two scenarios becomes particularly pronounced starting in August, as highlighted by… pic.twitter.com/8qCqBdguIq

— g (@antzmrah) July 21, 2024

While the S&P 500 index has surged to new highs, the earnings revision trend has been declining.

Market prices rose as the outlook for corporate earnings became less optimistic.

Investor optimism outpaced actual corporate performance expectations.

There is a disconnect… pic.twitter.com/tFKIEew5OQ

— g (@antzmrah) July 20, 2024

Market Vane Bulls at 73, highest since May 2007 (they were 74 then) pic.twitter.com/qU9y37JrSB

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 20, 2024

BofA: S&P 500 statistically expensive on 19 of 20 metrics pic.twitter.com/VtMtS9pgmM

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 19, 2024

JUST IN 🚨: China dumped an ALL-TIME HIGH $42.6 billion worth of U.S. Securities in May pic.twitter.com/P0pCqCjZsC

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 19, 2024

"There are few of us left who were in the industry during the 2000 Nasdaq crash. I was there and the one thing I have learnt is not to be complacent. Bad stuff happens and the warning signs are there if you look for them." -@albertedwards99 https://t.co/UetCHvlIQW pic.twitter.com/8jdFFwhkcp

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) July 18, 2024

Total housing units under construction are declining at an 11% annualized pace as of June.

This is the first sustained contraction in units under construction in the post 2008 period. pic.twitter.com/q7sjmK7aNr

— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) July 17, 2024

If you think US consumer confidence is bad, take a look at China... pic.twitter.com/1D5xPIFn0R

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 16, 2024

We have long said that if you are worried about a #stock #market correction, all you need to do is watch #credit spreads. pic.twitter.com/i4j7G2g1V8

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) July 17, 2024

When global central banks haven't increased short term interest rates.

Of note; 00-04

Dot-com bubble burst, 2000

Contested U.S. presidential election in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore

9/11, Afghanistan and Enron, 2001

WorldCom and Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 2002

Iraq War… pic.twitter.com/090nJjjk5Q

— g (@antzmrah) July 16, 2024

Consumer sentiment around purchasing vehicles (blue), houses (orange), and large household durable goods (white) deteriorated further in July per ⁦@UMich⁩ pic.twitter.com/8EPkUOzeMT

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 15, 2024

China's credit growth hasn't been this slow since 1999. pic.twitter.com/HHHEg4URJ9

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 15, 2024

Individual CDs, Bonds, Bond Funds and Stable Value Funds

Individual Certificates of Deposit (CDs) and Treasury bills/bonds are considered very low risk because they are usually backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Federal Reserve and/or the US…

— g (@antzmrah) July 13, 2024

As the Producer Price Index (PPI) is strong, showing rising prices at the wholesale level, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is soft, with little to no increase in prices for consumers, we will likely end up with a squeeze on corporate profitability margins = Lower corporate… pic.twitter.com/hldF4Vd8M5

— g (@antzmrah) July 13, 2024

The accompanying chart explains why there is a consumer revolt -- not over inflation, but over the current level of prices. Real income expectations have never been as low as they are today. Deflation is in our future. Why I’m more a believer in bonds than I am in the value… pic.twitter.com/3QMEcpq2Cr

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) July 12, 2024

Wholesale auto inventories continue to climb at a brisk pace and to new all-time highs pic.twitter.com/jFaLjMYGmi

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 11, 2024