Concerning and Other Stuff 10/7/2024

Our present monetary and governmental policy diminishes our kids' future prosperity.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 6, 2024

Our present monetary and governmental policy diminishes our kids' future prosperity.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 6, 2024

You cannot do a kindness too soon, for you never know how soon it will be too late. - Ralph Waldo Emerson

— Great Minds Quotes (@GreatestQuotes) October 5, 2024

The journey of sunlight 🌞🌍🌑 pic.twitter.com/e4NDv9XaYt

— Science (@ScienceGuys_) October 1, 2024

pic.twitter.com/3WirXN2Nw7

— Natalie F Danelishen (@Chesschick01) September 29, 2024

I just had our service team at one of the largest 401(k) custodians in America confirm for me this morning that 401(k) loan requests and hardship withdrawals are “through the roof“.

The way she described it is, “like nothing I’ve seen in my career“.

Take from that what you…

— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) September 24, 2024

The Conference Board’s labor market differential fell again in September. Notice those gray bars that always appear when the differential starts falling? No doubt, this time will be different. pic.twitter.com/S4OCyNwxAI

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 24, 2024

Americans have never been so worried about the year ahead:

The share of consumers uncertain about business conditions over the next year spiked to 51% in September, the most on record.

The percentage has DOUBLED in 4 months.

Over the last 30 years, the share of consumers… pic.twitter.com/w4SSdhHAeg

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 22, 2024

Thomas Sowell dropped out of high school at 17.

He eventually earned his undergraduate degree from Harvard, graduating 𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘯𝘢 𝘤𝘶𝘮 𝘭𝘢𝘶𝘥𝘦.

But it was the 1950s; even at Harvard Sowell wasn't safe from racist attitudes of the era.

He wasn't having any of it. pic.twitter.com/BF53v1hUkS

— Clifton Duncan (@cliftonaduncan) September 21, 2024

India’s gold imports surged in August. pic.twitter.com/p2Tj6mqz6C

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) September 18, 2024

High rates are really putting pressure on small businesses

This is WORSE than September 2007, right before the Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/E1r0TbGypy

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 12, 2024

Our young delay parenthood etc... after their elders leveraged low interest rates to drive up the prices of assets they acquired at a fraction of the cost.

Now there is a surplus of overinflated assets boomers etc... are going to want to sell too few buyers of the next…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 7, 2024

My greatest accomplishment ended up being the worst thing that ever happened to me, but it ended up a blessing in disguise.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 4, 2024

Non-meritocracy oriented credentialist based justifications are bullsiht.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 4, 2024

Property taxes financially bind homeowners to government.

Illusory ownership.

A modern form of indentured servitude.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 7, 2024

Russia Set to Boost Silver Reserves in Major Precious Metals Strategy Shift https://t.co/U9xjotQL8Y

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 6, 2024

When Social Security collects more in taxes than it pays out in benefits, the surplus is invested in special "non-marketable" Treasury securities issued to the Social Security Trust Fund, meaning they can't be bought and sold on the open market.

This is how the government…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 3, 2024

When Social Security collects more in taxes than it pays out in benefits, the surplus is invested in special "non-marketable" Treasury securities issued to the Social Security Trust Fund, meaning they can't be bought and sold on the open market.

This is how the government…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 3, 2024

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good."

- Samuel Johnson

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) October 2, 2024

BREAKING: Total money supply in the US, the Euro Area, Japan, and China has reached a new record of a MASSIVE $89.7 trillion.

Global money supply has skyrocketed by $7.3 trillion over the last year.

This marks the largest increase in 3 years and a similar jump to the initial… pic.twitter.com/A5KrGCjCc0

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 1, 2024

As seen on social media - #DocWatson statue during the storm in downtown Boone pic.twitter.com/GFQ0dvvuB3

— WataugaOnline (@WataugaOnline) September 30, 2024

If the price of money is distorted, most prices reflect its perversion.

Risk shifted to central bank balance sheets or obscured by clever accounting isn't gone, but masked to maintain a more pleasant present at the expense of future volatility.

Unsustainable.

Debt continues…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 28, 2024

The employment component of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index just broke thru its 2020 pandemic low ... as of September, it's at its lowest since April 2009 pic.twitter.com/eAIowzRYgt

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) September 24, 2024

The efficacy of a rain dance depends on timing.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 24, 2024

BREAKING: The US home price to median household income ratio is now at 7.2x, a new all-time high.

In other words, the average single-family home in the US now costs more than 7 times the median annual household income.

This ratio is officially above the 7.1x recorded in 2022… pic.twitter.com/UYrUCZ5L9l

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 23, 2024

Up to a Quarter of Rental Inflation Is Due to Price-Fixing, by @matthewstoller https://t.co/btNry0w9Ww

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 20, 2024

pic.twitter.com/6AfdM8f3pd

— Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) September 19, 2024

As truth isn’t realizable without doubt,
skepticism is the best way to confirm reality.

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 16, 2024

8,100 Chinese drones flying simultaneously, establishing a new Guinness World Record in Shenzhen.

Today, for commercial.

Tomorrow, for military operations with drone swarm technology. pic.twitter.com/5N1czENeqm

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 13, 2024

Concerning Stuff 9/13/2024https://t.co/6u2ErFZC2D

Hat Tips;@DiMartinoBooth @McClellanOsc @RealEJAntoni @TheKingCourt @JamesMelville @KobeissiLetter@PeterBerezinBCA @albertedwards99 @bespokeinvest @GameofTrades_ @WallStreetApes @DonMiami3 @hussmanjp @zerohedge…

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) September 13, 2024

Concerning Stuff 9/13/2024

True. WHY the media chooses to lie about it is a travesty. Between corrupt “official” data and a tainted media, we may as well be living in the former Soviet bloc. https://t.co/sjKtAcyMyG

— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) September 12, 2024

Notice how this chart from the Monthly Treasury Statement (created by the Treasury Dept. staff) is graphically misleading. They do show a portion for the deficit ($380B), but that portion is portrayed as smaller than the receipts ($307B). https://t.co/C3WhIY9gYb pic.twitter.com/h92D2kmrr9

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) September 12, 2024

Aug wasn't just the worst federal deficit of FY '24, but worse than any month in '23 too; federal finance isn't improving - it's deteriorating: pic.twitter.com/zGOJXyRPpx

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) September 12, 2024

This is absolutely mind-boggling!

The U.S. government has normalized running a $2 trillion deficit.

They better hope there's never an economic downturn, or things could get catastrophic... Oh wait... pic.twitter.com/xZjW4JZkKm

— The Mad King (@TheKingCourt) September 12, 2024

The moment the world changed.
23 years ago today. pic.twitter.com/F1tKoC4eoY

— James Melville 🚜 (@JamesMelville) September 11, 2024

China’s real estate stocks are officially BELOW 2008 levels.

What is happening in China? pic.twitter.com/xZxXI8JuJf

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 10, 2024

CRE delinquencies are rising and spreading beyond the office sector.

Soft landing morphing into quicksand. pic.twitter.com/MdCSc4SJ89

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 11, 2024

Investors should not mistake the M7 for the economy. Small mom and pop companies are the lifeblood of the economy and will take the economy down into recession. A recession then could then expose the large cap cyclicals masquerading as growth stocks. https://t.co/2XVGiH9LT2 pic.twitter.com/xYYjhwU3gV

— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) September 10, 2024

Consumers expecting to miss a debt payment is at a post-Covid high and at its highest August level since 2016. Per the NY Fed’s consumer expectations survey. This has been climbing steadily since mid-2022. pic.twitter.com/e8g3shl2JW

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 10, 2024

SHOCKING: Home price relative to median income is now at the highest level ever seen

Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/SQJQmAlGC8

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) September 9, 2024

The FDA has been the victim of a horrible rumor that 50% of their funding comes from the pharmaceutical industry

In response they’ve released an official report of their funding to prove everyone wrong

Officially 47% of their funding comes from Big Pharma (holy sh*t)

“So think… pic.twitter.com/dOQtESrEMb

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) September 8, 2024

BREAKING: The US personal savings rate dropped to 2.9% in July, its lowest print in 2 years.

Savings as a percentage of disposable personal income are is at its second lowest level since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Now, the savings rate has declined for 14 consecutive months.… pic.twitter.com/LBSk2rLgEB

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 8, 2024

CAUTION: Personal interest payments have crossed $500 billion

Current levels have NEVER been seen since 1959

This sets the stage for rapid consumer weakening pic.twitter.com/xeee2drn1p

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) September 7, 2024

Restaurant Performance Index from the NRA fell last month to cycle low, down 1.3 points

Restaurants are closing at an unbelievable pace right now and same store sales are weak. pic.twitter.com/lNeInfyCmt

— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 6, 2024

This is exactly right. Neither Fed rate cuts nor quantitative easing ended the global financial crisis. The crisis ended the second week of March 2009, when the FASB suspended FAS 157 mark-to-market rules for banks. The hearing was held on March 12, 2009.https://t.co/mRbeGUCFW3 https://t.co/xFhWGVx0dQ

— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) September 4, 2024

Small bank credit card delinquency rates just hit a new record high pic.twitter.com/trpyAQtbVe

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2024

This is what an inflationary depression looks like

From Dollar General earnings call: pic.twitter.com/bNmSoIN2o5

— Golden Coast (Cassandra) (@GregCrennan) August 29, 2024

"Each of the indicators has an impressive record forecasting the stock market’s return over the subsequent decade."

Mark Hulbert pic.twitter.com/xxiF4p6P0L

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 26, 2024

1985 person asks time traveler about the future:

"Everything is the same, except we're all enslaved by tiny telephones."

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 23, 2024

If you look at the fake govt data, they claim grocery inflation is only in the 20% to 25% range overall since 2020.

If you look at the real world prices with your own eyes, most items are up 50% to 150% since 2020. pic.twitter.com/0YNk0kCWZQ

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) August 22, 2024

The depth of naïveté of the average American who thinks can print ourselves into endless prosperity with myriad historical examples proving the exact opposite. pic.twitter.com/zVL6Gy07b7

— Death Cab to QE (@DeathCabToQE) August 19, 2024

Since 2008, 60% of the US money supply was created, as the other 40% was created between 1913 and 2007.

Prices rise from the inflation of the currency, deficits and unsustainable debt issuance.

From 2008 to 2024, US Federal Debt has increased by approximately $25 trillion, an… https://t.co/QJC0hgWgri

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 21, 2024

60-Day Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Rising pic.twitter.com/HGaSWz9UaG

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 19, 2024

Here is a better chart for comparing outlays to receipts. We are currently spending 34% more than we are taking in. Can you imagine cutting federal spending 34%? [1/2] https://t.co/dtoM5NeEkQ pic.twitter.com/hXXy5AbTnV

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) August 19, 2024

EPS estimates down, stock prices up pic.twitter.com/9Dynvs6nnE

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 16, 2024

Milton Friedman said it best:

“Keep your eye on how much the Government is spending, because that is the true tax.

There is no such thing as an unbalanced budget. You PAY FOR IT either in the form of taxes, or indirectly in the form of inflation or debt.”

Fact check: TRUE ✅ pic.twitter.com/QrFNKazVns

— Cillian (@CilComLFC) August 16, 2024

Concerning Stuff 8/17/24https://t.co/6u2ErFZC2D

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 17, 2024

Concerning Stuff 8/17/24

"Central banks are hoarding gold faster than we've ever seen." https://t.co/J9XZM6jxsg via @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/Rg9zR1EhiT

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 17, 2024

University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions approaching the worst in index history (again) pic.twitter.com/nZuRFQxW6n

— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) August 16, 2024

This is incredible:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position relative to total assets spiked to 25.0% in Q2 2024, the most in at least 24 years.

The company's share of cash has more than DOUBLED in just 2 years.

To put this into perspective, the company’s cash pile… pic.twitter.com/LgMklJ5HcQ

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 14, 2024

As the S&P 500 was plunging earlier this month, retail investors were buying the dip 🫡🥳🫂 pic.twitter.com/dyzvRxUuo4

— Barchart (@Barchart) August 16, 2024

The Fed is currently sterilizing about $4.1 trillion through the RRP facility and Interest on Reserve policy, which is costing over $606 million PER DAY in interest payments to Wall Street; it's a small club, and you aint in it: pic.twitter.com/AIsDHUJRcc

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) August 16, 2024

When you read something like "$28,000 in 1970 is equivalent to $209,000 in 2022" - remember, they are using the BLS CPI to come up with this nonsense.

The CPI (or PCE) models have very little to do with real world cost of living. pic.twitter.com/AguiWQTOqZ

— Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. (@RudyHavenstein) July 19, 2024

Meanwhile:

China reported record levels of silver imports. pic.twitter.com/LYYP7JYZXd

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 15, 2024

Small businesses are in a recession:

Small business loan availability just dropped to its lowest level in nearly 11 years.

The pace of the decline is similar to the pace seen in 2007, just before the Financial Crisis hit.

Similar weakness also took place in 1989 before the… pic.twitter.com/7yOm58oh5C

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 14, 2024

BREAKING 🚨: China

Chinese Home Prices declined by the largest amount in history last month pic.twitter.com/nZ7P1BOpFY

— Barchart (@Barchart) August 15, 2024

US Retail Sales increased 2.6% over the last year but after adjusting for higher prices they were down 0.4%.

Both of these numbers are well below the historical averages of +4.6% nominal and +2.0% real.https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ pic.twitter.com/5uytcU9Gto

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 15, 2024

Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 50% over the past 3 years. That's the biggest 3-year spike since 1975-78.https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/ZRAMXIah6q

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 14, 2024

🚨U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcies are SOARING:

- Total filings +34% YoY in first half of 2024

- Small business filings up +61% YoY

- June saw the highest corporate bankruptcies since 2020

Small and mid-sized businesses, especially in consumer discretionary sectors like clothing… pic.twitter.com/lm194RzIuq

— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 12, 2024

'Weekly outflows from junk loan ETFs were at their highest level on record.' https://t.co/ipfDohcG96 pic.twitter.com/XtbYFA5H8T

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 10, 2024

What is happening here?

Real income growth expectations by US consumers over the next 5 years just dropped to their lowest on record.

Americans now see HALF the chance of higher inflation-adjusted incomes than in 2020.

Additionally, consumers anticipate their real income to… pic.twitter.com/TTiYw6iJ4I

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 9, 2024

$1 trillion in AI CapEx, who needs routers, switches or cables https://t.co/vDg0LZx4VQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 9, 2024

41% of Russell 2000 companies now have negative earnings

This number is up more than 2x since 2006

And is comparable to levels seen during the peak of 2008 Financial Crisis

This is not sustainable pic.twitter.com/CTN5a9ayaw

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 8, 2024

A leading economic indicator; https://t.co/8wuyN84H5O

— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) August 8, 2024

Concerning Stuff; 08/07/2024

What exactly is the plan here?

Seriously asking. pic.twitter.com/GBBP4jA5Ws

— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 4, 2024

Chapter 11 Filings Reach Highest Level in More Than a Decade https://t.co/gIFa1LyCyD pic.twitter.com/piRKIWSbt9

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 3, 2024

As interest rates crash 60+ basis points in a month, we are watching the housing market.

For years, the narrative for higher home prices was that no one wanted to sell.

Millions of Americans carry 3% mortgages with over 60% of borrowers having a rate below 4%.

Soon, mortgage… pic.twitter.com/r1sANKfHNv

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2024

Deflation Expectation Effect/Deflationary Spiral Psychology

Consumers waiting for lower prices as prices fall throughout the economy

Deflationary mindset = Delayed purchasing to wait for lower prices

= Reduced consumer spending and slowing economic activity = Deflationary…

— g (@antzmrah) August 2, 2024

This is the most important chart in the world today.

It's the chart of the Japanese Yen vs the USD.

Why is it so important?

1. For 30 years Japan has 0% interest on their currency.

2. As a result for 30 years investor borrowed YEN at no cost and invested it globally. They… pic.twitter.com/1IpofcvroZ

— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) August 2, 2024

More than half the jobs added in the last year were either in gov't or paid for by tax dollars, like when the gov't gives a grant to a hospital, which then uses that money to hire a nurse - it's essentially an indirect hire by gov't: pic.twitter.com/Pstmk23xF7

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) August 2, 2024

"If you account for the (i) negative revisions, (ii) the workweek shrinkage, (iii) the Birth-Death skew, (iv) the boom in multiple job holders, and (v) the huge shift to self-employment (look ma – I hired myself!), employment cratered more than -700k in July."

David Rosenberg…

— g (@antzmrah) August 2, 2024

ISM PMI Employment 43.4

Only time lower.

1) the internet bubble popping.
2) the GFC.
3) Covid-19. pic.twitter.com/XBpS0Ape0f

— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) August 1, 2024

Share of forecasters predicting recession pic.twitter.com/QgfADA214O

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 31, 2024

The amount of rating agency fraud involved with private credit will make the housing bubble seem like amateur hour

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 1, 2024

We live in rapidly interesting times.

Feels exponential. https://t.co/uHLuBzuPqK

— g (@antzmrah) July 31, 2024

About 212,582 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout history, with two-thirds of that since 1950, with an estimated 57,000 tonnes of suitable reserves remaining.

Production has plateaued since 2016-2018, with declining growth rates in recent years.

The gold mining industry…

— g (@antzmrah) August 5, 2024

With the military guys from Russia and the US swapping spit in Israel and Iran in public, feels like another front of the same war.

It's the same war.

The oil fields on the Iran/Iraq border region

In northeastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group,… pic.twitter.com/taxn0ja7u3

— g (@antzmrah) August 7, 2024

Concerning Stuff; 07/31/2024; Delinquency, Housing, Jobs, Inflated Corporate Earnings, AI etc...

Delinquency rates on Office building loans hit 8.11%, the highest in more than a decade 🚨 pic.twitter.com/vd4Wvwl9M7

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 30, 2024

Businesses are warning investors that they are unable to pass on higher costs to consumers.

= Consumers purchasing power is squeezed = Reduced demand = Consumers are becoming price-sensitive

= Shrinking profit margins = lower earnings = lower stock prices and dividends

=…

— g (@antzmrah) July 31, 2024

This is one of the most stunning collapses from an established retailer...

Big Lots has gone from $70+ a share to $1 and near bankruptcy

Unfortunately, retail is in for a rude awakening

There will be a massive wave of retail companies/restaurants that'll crumble over the next… pic.twitter.com/2zxnHlHayS

— Triple Net Investor (@TripleNetInvest) July 31, 2024

Regurgitation of what many times is inherently flawed/biased human created information.

Scraped garbage in without compensating the authors, sometimes inaccurate mangled garbage out.

For anything important, I run info through at least a few of the free ones to make sure and… https://t.co/6Qq5TMMJyI

— g (@antzmrah) July 31, 2024

Wells Fargo Economics:

Business leaders and financial markets have grown perfectly comfortable with the fact that they are conducting business as usual even as the security alarm, the fire alarm and the smoke alarm are all going off around them. pic.twitter.com/IH7gJ2usas

— Piker (@PikerCapital) July 30, 2024

Everyone ready for what's coming in housing? pic.twitter.com/cYtIsuUY0v

— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) July 29, 2024

Share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful fell in July to lowest since March 2021 ... pace of deceleration has picked up lately pic.twitter.com/ZNjix49Trv

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 30, 2024

What if I told you that rampant accounting chicanery has inflated mega-cap tech earnings by the largest degree in modern history? And that if you price these companies on a free cash flow basis, they're more expensive than what we saw at the peak of the Dot Com mania?

Consider… pic.twitter.com/3JbGyVGLyt

— Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) July 27, 2024

New cycle low for July ⁦@KansasCityFed⁩ City Manufacturing Index, down to -13 vs. -5 est. & -8 prior … new orders slipped to -21, shipments fell to -18, and workweek fell to -17 … employment deteriorated further as prices paid moved higher pic.twitter.com/82ieYj3BJW

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 25, 2024

Summary: changes to Treasury's issuance policies have provided similar economic stimulus as a 1% cut in the Fed Funds rate, usurping core functions of monetary policy and blocking the Fed's efforts to restrain inflation and growth.
/2

— Stephen Miran (@SteveMiran) July 23, 2024

pic.twitter.com/6jUahLDalL

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) July 22, 2024

The updated version of this chart is always worth reviewing each year.

What caught my attention this time?

The acceleration in cost for hospital services.

Wild. pic.twitter.com/I2oQkfWI3A

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) July 14, 2024

pic.twitter.com/yvQxfI2kMk

— Sal the Agorist (@SallyMayweather) July 8, 2024

$GS on the cost of AI:

"...the cost of utilizing the technology to solve tasks is much higher than existing methods. For example, we’ve found that AI can update historical data in our company models more quickly than doing so manually, but at 6X the cost" pic.twitter.com/SCF8mOi6lJ

— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) July 10, 2024

Concerning Stuff; 07/26/2024; Insider Selling, Employment, Real Estate Inventory, Used Cars, Earnings Revisions, China, Inflation etc...

BREAKING: US executives are dumping stocks at their fastest pace in at least 10 years.

The percentage of publicly traded firms seeing net purchases from their officers and directors dropped to ~15%.

To put this in perspective, the 10-year average of this metric is ~26%.

After… pic.twitter.com/RQcieqfrQ7

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 26, 2024

Durable Goods Nondefense aircraft and parts new orders negative 127.2%. That's right: negative pic.twitter.com/42RLXFJRgi

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 25, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway sold another $800 million of Bank of America (BAC) on July 22, 23, and 24 at an average price of $42.46. It has now sold $2.3 billion over the past six trading sessions. #Buffett https://t.co/bpOZsN8use

— David Kass (@DrDavidKass) July 25, 2024

Change in Full-Time work is negative. It’s a simple rule, when negative we get a recession.

Yes the Fed is late. Yes the eco growth measured by GDP is a mirage caused by a 7% deficit.

I know there are rules and laws that some folks have created.

No false positives. 👇 pic.twitter.com/NnNhbb7Q9A

— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) July 24, 2024

BREAKING: Home builders now have 102,000 completed and unsold homes for sale on the market, the highest since 2009, according to Reventure.

This comes at a time when mortgage demand is at its lowest level in nearly 30 YEARS.

Meanwhile, there are a whopping 274,000 new homes… pic.twitter.com/XxMppQOGfK

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 24, 2024

ANOTHER US RECESSION WARNING:

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits spiked by >30% over the last 2 years, highest increase since the COVID Crisis.

In the past, every time when US continued jobless claims rose more than 20% from their lows, a recession followed. pic.twitter.com/Q6qFbJ9Fc0

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) July 23, 2024

Car prices are crashing:

Used car and truck prices are now down 17.5% since the 2021 peak, the largest decline in 15 years.

Over the last 35 years, there were only two times when prices of used vehicles saw a bigger drawdown: in 2004 and 2009.

Overall, US wholesale prices of… pic.twitter.com/LWWGkNY0jG

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2024

Quite a shift in “excess savings” dynamic over past couple years … in past couple quarters, $ amount turned negative for all income cohorts per ⁦@Moodys⁩
⁦@WSJ⁩ pic.twitter.com/CCja53L7h0

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 23, 2024

This is concerning:

11% of US consumers with 90-day+ new delinquencies of FHA single-family loans cited unemployment as the main reason, the most in over 16 years.

An FHA loan is a type of mortgage for borrowers with lower credit scores or who do not qualify for a conventional… pic.twitter.com/ZY8rMJHnml

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 23, 2024

S&P 500 4th Year Lame Duck Election 1950-Current

The blue line (4th year lame duck) shows much weaker performance, ending the year with only slight growth of about 1%.

The divergence between the two scenarios becomes particularly pronounced starting in August, as highlighted by… pic.twitter.com/8qCqBdguIq

— g (@antzmrah) July 21, 2024

While the S&P 500 index has surged to new highs, the earnings revision trend has been declining.

Market prices rose as the outlook for corporate earnings became less optimistic.

Investor optimism outpaced actual corporate performance expectations.

There is a disconnect… pic.twitter.com/tFKIEew5OQ

— g (@antzmrah) July 20, 2024

Market Vane Bulls at 73, highest since May 2007 (they were 74 then) pic.twitter.com/qU9y37JrSB

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 20, 2024

BofA: S&P 500 statistically expensive on 19 of 20 metrics pic.twitter.com/VtMtS9pgmM

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 19, 2024

JUST IN 🚨: China dumped an ALL-TIME HIGH $42.6 billion worth of U.S. Securities in May pic.twitter.com/P0pCqCjZsC

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 19, 2024

"There are few of us left who were in the industry during the 2000 Nasdaq crash. I was there and the one thing I have learnt is not to be complacent. Bad stuff happens and the warning signs are there if you look for them." -@albertedwards99 https://t.co/UetCHvlIQW pic.twitter.com/8jdFFwhkcp

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) July 18, 2024

Total housing units under construction are declining at an 11% annualized pace as of June.

This is the first sustained contraction in units under construction in the post 2008 period. pic.twitter.com/q7sjmK7aNr

— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) July 17, 2024

If you think US consumer confidence is bad, take a look at China... pic.twitter.com/1D5xPIFn0R

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 16, 2024

We have long said that if you are worried about a #stock #market correction, all you need to do is watch #credit spreads. pic.twitter.com/i4j7G2g1V8

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) July 17, 2024

When global central banks haven't increased short term interest rates.

Of note; 00-04

Dot-com bubble burst, 2000

Contested U.S. presidential election in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore

9/11, Afghanistan and Enron, 2001

WorldCom and Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 2002

Iraq War… pic.twitter.com/090nJjjk5Q

— g (@antzmrah) July 16, 2024

Consumer sentiment around purchasing vehicles (blue), houses (orange), and large household durable goods (white) deteriorated further in July per ⁦@UMich⁩ pic.twitter.com/8EPkUOzeMT

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 15, 2024

China's credit growth hasn't been this slow since 1999. pic.twitter.com/HHHEg4URJ9

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 15, 2024

Individual CDs, Bonds, Bond Funds and Stable Value Funds

Individual Certificates of Deposit (CDs) and Treasury bills/bonds are considered very low risk because they are usually backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Federal Reserve and/or the US…

— g (@antzmrah) July 13, 2024

As the Producer Price Index (PPI) is strong, showing rising prices at the wholesale level, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is soft, with little to no increase in prices for consumers, we will likely end up with a squeeze on corporate profitability margins = Lower corporate… pic.twitter.com/hldF4Vd8M5

— g (@antzmrah) July 13, 2024

The accompanying chart explains why there is a consumer revolt -- not over inflation, but over the current level of prices. Real income expectations have never been as low as they are today. Deflation is in our future. Why I’m more a believer in bonds than I am in the value… pic.twitter.com/3QMEcpq2Cr

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) July 12, 2024

Wholesale auto inventories continue to climb at a brisk pace and to new all-time highs pic.twitter.com/jFaLjMYGmi

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 11, 2024

Stuff 7/11/2024; Stable Value Funds, Economic data to P/E, Commercial Construction, China, S&P, Buffett, Fed Intervention, Used Vehicles, Credit Cards, Real Estate Etc...

Changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy can significantly impact interest rates.

In a rising interest rate environment, the underlying bonds' market value decreases, creating a wider gap between book value (what clients see) and market values (the actual worth of the underlying… https://t.co/iNgbWMbuUJ

— g (@antzmrah) July 8, 2024

Economic data have been quite poor relative to expectations of late (Citi's Economic Surprise Index continues to move lower), but that has not fazed big tech investors given the NASDAQ 100's forward P/E has risen to its highest in a year pic.twitter.com/J0okGIcmYH

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 10, 2024

Does this look like a healthy economy to you? pic.twitter.com/btxXVeLVu2

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) June 29, 2024

Striking shift in Chinese people's beliefs about what prevents them being well off https://t.co/SEdbMWvjfN pic.twitter.com/cGqfe3U8Xe

— Christian Shepherd (@cdcshepherd) July 10, 2024

We're in a bizarro world.

As noted by the fine folks at Bespoke, the S&P 500 index has been doing one thing while its underlying stocks do another.

Anyone with a family member with Oppositional Defiant Disorder can relate to how maddening this can be. To the greatest degree in… pic.twitter.com/8R0bE5uMki

— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) July 10, 2024

JUST IN 🚨: Warren Buffett Indicator hits 195%, the highest level in history, surpassing the Dot Com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2022 Bear Market pic.twitter.com/SAE5MbHTlY

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 9, 2024

Just a reminder

If the Fed wasn’t throwing trillions of dollars of liquidity via lending facilities into the banks they’d all be bankrupt.

What we did to support them in 2008 pales in comparison to what we’re doing now. pic.twitter.com/zSD8IpZ1pY

— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 9, 2024

The six-month performance spread between the S&P 500 and S&P 500 Equalweight index has only been higher than it is now during a small number of days in March 2000. pic.twitter.com/EoZgtMWMuJ

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 9, 2024

Used Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike.
But used EV prices still +61% from Jan. 2020, used ICE vehicles +31%. When will they bottom out? Compact cars approach affordability againhttps://t.co/o6Rxhgzpkd pic.twitter.com/gRp99lDb4V

— Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) July 9, 2024

The average US credit card interest rate is holding near 23%. pic.twitter.com/CJdUSfqEAu

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 9, 2024

On Friday, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 Index over a rolling 21-day period dropped to the lowest in history. pic.twitter.com/sUSzU3xNLm

— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) July 8, 2024

"The number of new homes for sale in the Southern Region (FL, GA, TN, TX, etc.) has spiked up to nearly 300,000.

This is the highest level of all-time. Even higher than the previous bubble peak in August 2006.

Demand has dropped off precipitously. With new home sales in the… pic.twitter.com/Yg1KyqkHb6

— g (@antzmrah) July 8, 2024

"Employed, Usually Work Full Time"

The percent change from the previous year in the number of people employed who usually work full time in the United States from 1969 to 2024.

Clear cyclical fluctuations, with sharp declines during recessions (shaded areas) and recoveries… pic.twitter.com/6jPmNqOqav

— g (@antzmrah) July 7, 2024

"About $189 billion of debt on office buildings is estimated to mature in 2023 with an additional $117 billion due in 2024.

Monthly payments on the floating rate debt jumped to about $880K in April from just over $300K a year ago.

Approximately $1.2 trillion of the outstanding… pic.twitter.com/2ccn5F0HPS

— g (@antzmrah) July 7, 2024

The last 2 recessions began accelerating in June.

If history repeats, the data we see in August will show a rapid deterioration of the economy in July. It will be undeniable by that point. https://t.co/rcrN52alYi pic.twitter.com/8HosRMlDwr

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 5, 2024

Heavy job losses continue to be reported in temporary help services, with the 3-month average showing a reading of -30,000.

The trucking sector is also consistently shedding jobs.

These two sectors are always early movers in the labor market cycle. pic.twitter.com/CSNoHJaXbr

— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) July 5, 2024

A pivotal moment with broader implications for economic and financial markets as the Japanese Yen disintegrates.

A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, impacting trade balances.

Exchange rate movements can influence foreign investment… pic.twitter.com/14XOeFuoL5

— g (@antzmrah) July 4, 2024

BEWARE: Credit card defaults are rising aggressively

This is true for all age brackets

Especially the younger generation

In fact, the 18 to 29-year-old default bracket is now higher than the peak of Covid

The situation is worsened by over $1 trillion in total credit card debt… pic.twitter.com/U2DHU9k7Fx

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 3, 2024

New cycle low for business activity component in ISM Services Index as of June ... now at lowest since April 2020 pic.twitter.com/TYGcDQEM2S

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024

Stuff July 3, 2024; US new home inventory highest since 2009, Bank lending declines, Yield Curve, Apartments, Bull/Bear Indicator, Job openings, Inflation etc...

New cycle low for business activity component in ISM Services Index as of June ... now at lowest since April 2020 pic.twitter.com/TYGcDQEM2S

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024

BREAKING: US new home inventory awaiting a buyer surged to 99,000, the highest level since 2009.

In just 2 years the number of these homes has DOUBLED.

This comes after single-family homes available for sale increased to 481,000 in May, the highest in 16 years.

As a result, it… pic.twitter.com/W6wdbJ4mG4

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 1, 2024

WARNING: Bank lending has collapsed since March 2023

Such sharp declines have usually ended in recessions

This time is not different pic.twitter.com/xvtvwB7Rjl

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 2, 2024

Updated tally of overextended warning flags in daily data - discussed in the June commenthttps://t.co/Usje0uozEG
This version restricts the red tally to periods when our primary gauge of market internals was also unfavorable. Not a forecast or stand-alone strategy. Just FYI. pic.twitter.com/gS4AQVQLq8

— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) July 3, 2024

Another major steepening of the yield curve.

The recessionary signal this sends cannot be overstated.

Just so you know:

82% of the entire curve remains inverted. pic.twitter.com/v3hprLIFgO

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 2, 2024

This chart shows the US Architecture Billings Index.

Source: @WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/GIyCRFKCAh

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 3, 2024

It's absolutely brutal out there...

Only 47% of newly constructed apartments completed in Q4 were rented within three months. That's a 60% decline from a year earlier and is the lowest share on record aside from Q1 2020. https://t.co/PQzLRNORWP pic.twitter.com/O2HldIATwg

— Piker (@PikerCapital) July 1, 2024

Hang onto your hats! The Goldman Sachs point out equities usually enter a bear market when their Bull/Bear Market Indicator is this elevated. But maybe this time is different!

H/T @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/LiXD9tCZQW

— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) July 3, 2024

Here is a look at US job openings at hotels/restaurants/bars and retail. pic.twitter.com/4qLmGz3nSn

— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) July 3, 2024

In June, construction industry saw largest increase in layoff announcements per @ChallengerGray ... hasn't seen a spike that large since September 2007 pic.twitter.com/6zee9KAtVf

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024

This Chapwood Index seems a whole lot more inline with my actual inflation experience. The CPI is a hedonically adjusted scam…

H/T @RudyHavenstein pic.twitter.com/M2by9pZzbo

— Kuppy (@hkuppy) June 25, 2024

We've never before had so few stocks outperforming the S&P 500. pic.twitter.com/UBPAeo9pkj

— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) July 2, 2024

Right back to new cycle low for equal-weighted S&P 500 relative to cap-weighted S&P 500 ... ratio at lowest since December 2008 pic.twitter.com/V4XQ4RcbyC

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 27, 2024

It's not just stocks: treasury market liquidity has collapsed to record low levels pic.twitter.com/oYSCJTES1Q

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 16, 2022

#Household allocations to #stocks (or should I say the top 10% of households) are at an all-time high.
h/t @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/ycljYDpFoD

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) June 26, 2024

Real Estate sector falling to a new low relative to the S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/ME6eBSlhMb

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 25, 2024

RECESSION WARNING:

US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) is down 14.7% from this economic cycle peak.

In the last 65 years, such a drop happened only during recessions.

Index takes into account, US labor market data, manufacturing sector data, building permits, S&P 500 and bonds. pic.twitter.com/YlcgonkwPl

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 24, 2024

The graph shows three main data series:

Copper in recent initial resources (gray bars)

Copper in reserves, resources and past production (orange bars)

Copper exploration budget (blue line)

Key observations:

The largest copper discoveries in terms of reserves, resources, and… pic.twitter.com/bmbAkAHOHo

— g (@antzmrah) June 23, 2024

Stuff 6/22/2024; NVDA, Lumber, Bankruptcies, Sector relative strength, Liquidity, Economic Surprises Index, AAA Bond Losses, Housing negative equity etc...

nVidia is in the same position as Sun Microsystems was in the early days of the dot-com bubble.

Sun had the leading edge web servers, the smartest engineers, the most respect in the industry. If you were dot-com startup, you bought Sun servers. Smart engineers wouldn't come work…

— Robert Graham 𝕏 (@ErrataRob) June 21, 2024

Lumber futures prices are falling hard this week, as it sinks in that a recession is coming, especially in housing. https://t.co/2OEw9bdpiQ pic.twitter.com/61NLSAXlES

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) June 21, 2024

Japanese bankruptcies by month #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/byCvNCeKoX

— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) June 21, 2024

Still a horror show when scanning sector relative strength (ex tech, CS) pic.twitter.com/axthoTPAfe

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 21, 2024

The #market has continued to rise over the last two weeks, even as #liquidity reverses. pic.twitter.com/2bF2Jyqyoa

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) June 21, 2024

I keep hearing this "strong US economy" narrative from the Fed who overly focus on payrolls. Really? The plunge in the Citi US Economic Surprises Index is getting attention just recently, but take a look at the Bloomberg measure -it is crashing to basement levels! H/T @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/4DSseGTXBG

— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) June 21, 2024

"In May of 2024, when the S&P was hitting record highs a CLO AAA tranche toook 25% haircut, signaling something is very broken with the system.

And then it happened again.

...investors in the AAA tranche of a loan backed by UK shopping malls are facing losses, in what may be… https://t.co/xPtRoOGpL4 pic.twitter.com/f8TgN8Q7dH

— g (@antzmrah) June 21, 2024

"Credit agencies have mis-rated more than $100bn of commercial real estate debt, including at least a dozen deals that maintain top investment-grade ratings even though the borrowers are in default.

...Single-loan deals now make about 40 per cent of the nearly $700bn in… pic.twitter.com/3OdL02dtiB

— g (@antzmrah) June 21, 2024

At some point of time this chart is going to reverse really hard. Unfortunatelly I bet housing market will need to crash by record ever level.

And 1980 isn't 2024, but true it was also a "big cycle" rotatation process.

Housing market is negative equity just like cars. https://t.co/gI1L061jOp pic.twitter.com/UGiEww6ikF

— GregTheAnalyst (@Analyst_G) June 20, 2024

We have seen countless comparisons of current $NVDA stock price with Cisco during dotcom bubble. Taking a look at price to sales is probably more meaningful.

Ht @AugurInfinity, btw give them a follow, great charts. pic.twitter.com/3UYcn2Vdbz

— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) June 20, 2024

Hello, #Fed, when exactly does this start qualifying as a supply-chain issue? pic.twitter.com/ehuSEXIZr2

— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) June 20, 2024

My latest Chart In Focus article, "Yield Curve’s 15-Month Lag", is posted at https://t.co/DiMegggTQm. pic.twitter.com/UgdRA14PzJ

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) June 21, 2024

We're in the midst of a sharp downturn in commercial real estate construction

Office 📉

Retail 📉

Industrial 📉

via @WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/lfXTCyQoEp

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) June 20, 2024

Wow. U.S. household stock allocation has reached an all-time high @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/EqJjKVkzRB

— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 20, 2024

Possible spike in inventory accumulation before layoffs. https://t.co/TwDWYlsnHm

— g (@antzmrah) June 19, 2024

China's new home prices from 2011 to 2024

Declining since around 2021

"Yuan devalued" around 2015-2016, which may happen in the near term again.

A currency devaluation would boost exports and flood the world with Chinese goods, which would likely be responded to by increased… pic.twitter.com/5h4mHlcZlr

— g (@antzmrah) June 18, 2024

The "Hopes and Dreams" ratio is the difference between the current #value of the #market that is NOT explained by underlying #fundamentals. In other words, this is the premium investors are paying for #equities.@thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/YPRH4Fs7Nv

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) June 17, 2024

Tech vs. Commodities highest since March 2000 pic.twitter.com/rjoG6Slz0e

— g (@antzmrah) June 4, 2024

If Foreign Holders of US Equities at All-Time Highs, and the last time it occurred was during the bubble of 1999-2000, followed by 9/11 and a Middle East war, what could happen after what may happen next?
.
.
Two notable peaks:

The dot-com bubble around 2000, where allocation… pic.twitter.com/nDzLVwFSYH

— g (@antzmrah) June 17, 2024

🇨🇦 Canada bankruptcies 532 companies.

𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀!

Chart: @tEconomics pic.twitter.com/7OTjTlC9D1

— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) June 15, 2024

variable annuities are where money goes to die

reviewing one that charged:

- 0.93% in fund fees
- 1.15% in extra riders
- 1.35% in mortality expenses

and of course it was in an IRA. a tax-deferred product in a tax-sheltered account, like wearing a raincoat indoors pic.twitter.com/z6zosZXbO1

— Adam Collins (@eversightwealth) May 5, 2020

"Implications of $517 billion in unrealized losses for the American economy.

1. Impact on Bank Solvency and Stability

Capital Erosion: Unrealized losses can erode the capital buffers of banks, [insurance companies, pensions and small investors through bond and stable value… https://t.co/BAZGTIT9t6 pic.twitter.com/p7ReWHpCsx

— g (@antzmrah) June 16, 2024

Japan is in worse shape, along with some big economies who have gone past the point of being able to pay off accumulated debt.

Look for some more inflationary spirals on top of Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt.

The Venezuelan Bolivar, Myanmar Kyat, Lao Kip, Nigerian Naira, Angolan… pic.twitter.com/RPvUJ2IrAH

— g (@antzmrah) June 16, 2024