One who intends to leave others better off for his having existed.

6/27/11

Could some who follow statistical irregularities, take advantage of relative unawareness of the many, prior to collective realization?

There’s been some suggestions that the payrolls report


had been distorted by the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics


accounts for business births and deaths


 


There’s been talk that the birth/death model


 a little-noted detail in the monthly report


 came in with a huge statistical discrepancy for this month


 effectively adding as many as 220,000 jobs to the reading


 


In a conference call with reporters, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis


...insisted the BLS number was correct


 and that no changes would be needed


 


Market Reaction Hints At False Note In Jobs Report


Bob O'Brien


Barrons, June 5, 2009


  


 


birth-death_220k_may


 ces_birth_death_for_may_b1


What is the likelihood


that the Bureau of Labor Statistics Birth/Death adjustment


which guesstimates employment at new businesses


added 220,000 hypothetical jobs in May 2009


including 43,000 new construction positions


as new small business loan availability cratered


77,000 in Leisure and Hospitality jobs


as hotel occupancy hit new lows


and 7,000 Financial Services positions


 


if 174,000 jobs were estimated in May 2008?


   


Is it conceivable


that the US created more construction and leisure/hospitality jobs


in April and May of 2009


than in April & May of 2002, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 2008


considering current economic circumstances?


 birthdeathgdp11


 

2 comments:

John C. Hancock said...

Our dear George, I do not understand the data. All I know is that our Son in VA., is busy as a structural engineer. Work needed before construction begins.

Mark Bishopric said...

Looks like some of the manipulations that we have seen in the cost of living index adjustments that we have seen in the past....