SBI Investigating Greensboro Council Member Amid Allegations of Homeless Relocation, Misuse of Funds, and Conflicts of Interest
https://georgehartzmaubstack.com/p/sbi-investigating-greensboro-council
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SBI Investigating Greensboro Council Member Amid Allegations of Homeless Relocation, Misuse of Funds, and Conflicts of Interest
https://georgehartzmaubstack.com/p/sbi-investigating-greensboro-council
I hereby request the following documents related to Downtown Greensboro, Inc. (DGI) and the Rebuilding Downtown Greensboro Grant Program (authorized by City Council on June 16, 2020, Resolution ID 20-0467, Ordinance ID 20-0466):
Contract/Agreement: The full executed contract or agreement between the City of Greensboro and DGI for the administration of the $250,000 grant program to reimburse property damage from May 30–31, 2020, including any amendments (e.g., the approved increase for larger properties referenced in DGI’s September 24, 2020, minutes).9/24/2020 DGI minutes state;
"City Partnership in Downtown #Greensboro Strong Program: Jordan Paige and Ms. Ross has been working on this grant program which reimburses business owners who have incurred damage during May 30 and 31 throughout Greensboro. Looking to increase amount of grant for larger properties downtown. Mr. Larry Davis did approve the increase. $92,000 reimbursed to businesses to date. Still working on reimbursing those businesses that were affected."
Authorization of Additional Funds: Documents (including council votes, memos, or approvals) authorizing the increase in grant amounts for larger properties, as mentioned in DGI’s September 24, 2020, minutes:
"Looking to increase amount of grant for larger properties downtown. Mr. Larry Davis did approve the increase."
Disposition of Remaining Funds: Records detailing the disposition of the $142,598.28 in unspent funds ($250,000 appropriated minus $107,401.72 disbursed, per the July 18, 2022, Internal Audit Report), including:
Communications or directives regarding the return of funds to the City (e.g., DGI’s February 25, 2021, statement that funds "will be remittable to the City").
ON 2/25/2021, "Ms. Ross then presented the DGI Financial Statements sharing that the cash balance continues to reflect cash from the City of Greensboro Rebuilding Grant Program. Those funds of $143,000 will be remittable to the City."
Documents justifying DGI’s retention of the $143,000 for "public purpose programming" (per January 24, 2022, minutes), including City approvals for this reallocation. On 1/24/22, DGI minutes state;
"Ms. Ross then presented the DGI Statement of Financial Activity noting that the cash balance still reflects the $143K from the City Rebuilding Grant which is available to DGI to invest in additional public purpose programing."
Financial records (account statements, invoices, or reports) showing how the remaining funds were ultimately used.
Audit & Oversight Materials: Any additional audits, reviews, or correspondence (beyond the July 18, 2022, Internal Audit report) evaluating DGI’s compliance with grant terms or the City’s oversight of the unspent funds.
Thanks,
g
Greensboro, NC – Newly obtained expense reports reveal that Downtown Greensboro Inc. (DGI), a nonprofit funded by city and Guilford County taxpayers, repeatedly treated powerful developers, business executives, and political donors to high-end meals while its president, City Councilmember Zack Matheny, lobbied for policies benefiting those same interests.
The bombshell expense reports revealing Downtown Greensboro Inc.'s (DGI) questionable spending of taxpayer money in FY23-24 may only be the beginning, according to government watchdogs and legal experts. With investigations now expanding, sources confirm that years of additional financial records could expose a far broader pattern of potential nonprofit abuse, political favoritism, and misuse of public funds including Thousands spent on Wyndham Championship, Swarm, Grasshoppers, and Tanger Center tickets with no clear business purpose or any records of who made use of the 'complimentary' perks.
The records, obtained through public records requests, show a pattern of DGI-funded meals at Greensboro’s most expensive restaurants, often involving executives whose companies have financial stakes in downtown development decisions.
These were charged to the DMSD program, meaning they were funded through the Downtown Municipal Service District = public tax dollars.
What We Know So Far – And What’s Still Hidden
The records obtained so far—covering just July 2023 to June 2024—already show;
Unregistered lobbying by Matheny, who doubles as DGI president and councilmember.
The $300 “Power Lunch”;
On December 5, 2023, DGI paid $300.12 for a lunch at Undercurrent Restaurant attended by:
Arthur Samet (Samet Corporation, a city contractor and Matheny donor)
Roy Carroll (Billionaire developer and Matheny donor)
Allen Dick (Dick Broadcasting, a Matheny donor)
Why It Matters;
Samet Corp has received millions in city contracts.
Roy Carroll donated $5,000 to Matheny’s campaign weeks before the meal and has received millions in economic incentives from the City of Greensboro.
Allen Dick gave $250 to Matheny in 2022, then enjoyed a $139 DGI/taxpayer funded meal at Lewis and Elm months later.
The Ethics Violations;
IRS Abuse: DGI, a 501(c)(6) nonprofit, cannot use funds to benefit private interests. These meals may violate tax-exempt rules.
Unregistered Lobbying: Matheny, as DGI president, appears to have lobbied attendees without registering as a lobbyist (a $5,000-per-violation offense under N.C. law).
Pay-to-Play Optics: The timing of donations followed by DGI-funded access raises bribery concerns.
The Bigger Problem
This isn’t an isolated incident. DGI’s records show a pattern of wining and dining city officials, donors, and contractors, including:
Mayor Nancy Vaughan ($62 meal at Undercurrent)
City Manager Taiwo Jaiyeoba ($43 meal at Liberty Oak)
City Attorney Watts ($64.17 meal at Undercurrent)
Legal experts say these expenditures could jeopardize DGI’s nonprofit status—and even lead to criminal referrals for misuse of public funds.
DGI and Matheny declined to comment.
But the real scandal may still be buried.
Missing Years – What’s Not Yet Public
FY 2021-2023 and 2024-2025: DGI’s spending during Matheny’s latest council term.
Earlier and latest donor Links: Full timeline of donations → DGI perks → city votes.
A source close to the investigation (speaking anonymously) stated:
"The FY23-24 records are just the tip of the iceberg. We’ve seen hints of deeper issues—missing receipts, blurred expense reports, and private meetings that never appeared on any public ledger."
Who else was involved? More officials, developers, or donors could be named;
The documents, obtained through public records requests, show a pattern of poorly documented entertainment expenses, but do include:
The Wyndham Championship Controversy
$5,000 "Partners Club" Sponsorship (July 2023)
Paid to the Wyndham Championship, where DGI board member Mark Brazil serves as CEO.
Conflict of Interest? DGI effectively funded Brazil’s own event—while he helped oversee DGI’s budget.
$456 Dinner at B. Christopher’s (December 2023)
Attendees included Mark Brazil, Eric Chilton (TV personality), and others.
No meeting purpose documented—just a vague "Brazil, Leasure, Chilton, Carter" listed.
Lavish meals with developers, media figures, and city insiders.
Nonprofits must keep detailed records of expenses. The lack of names suggests deliberate obfuscation.
"This looks like a slush fund for VIP access. Where’s the transparency?" – Government watchdog
"If tickets went to city officials, it’s textbook corruption." – Ethics lawyer
Is DGI a Slush Fund for Favors?
Related;
REVELATION: Greensboro Accused of Busing Unhoused Individuals Out of City Using Taxpayer Funds via DGI
https://georgehartzman.substack.com/p/revelation-greensboro-accused-of
"DGI Board Members Face Mounting Pressure to Recuse Themselves or Resign Amid Deepening Compliance Investigation involving Greensboro's City Council"
https://georgehartzman.substack.com/p/dgi-board-members-face-mounting-pressure
We may be seeing early stages of tectonic shift in global investment flows, with dramatic decline in demand for U.S. assets from abroad (fastest-ever pace of U.S. equity selling by official sector in single month and largest monthly outflow of U.S. assets by private sector… pic.twitter.com/hlygxcZ0Zd
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 3, 2025
200 years ago, this is what 95% of the population was watching on TV pic.twitter.com/soegYzC7yf
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) April 8, 2013
IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) April 1, 2025
IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability
IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability pic.twitter.com/p9SBMxzJ5F
UNC remains undefeated in games in which it scored more points than the other team.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) March 24, 2025
42% of mortgage refinance applications are being rejected, the highest rate in AT LEAST the last 12 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/LYYBw5RFeg
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 18, 2025
Buckle up pic.twitter.com/Xq9nxaYPUK
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) March 23, 2025
UNC remains undefeated in games in which it scored more points than the other team.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) March 24, 2025
Should investors be bullish when everyone else is certain about “uncertainty”? pic.twitter.com/ctwIObyX4W
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 29, 2025
6.1 million Americans are behind on their mortgage.
— Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) March 29, 2025
FHA delinquencies just hit 11.03% — the highest in years. pic.twitter.com/hKoCpZgtQ0
Almost every Fed easy money cycle ends with an interest rate hike cycle, plateau then an easing cycle. It is after the punch bowl is taken away and they start cutting again that the past cycle’s fraud is exposed.
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) April 1, 2025
1) 2000 Fed starts cutting rates massive corporate fraud exposed…
BREAKING 🚨: Car Buyers
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 7, 2025
The % of borrowers at least 2 months late on their car payments jumps to an all-time high pic.twitter.com/HNvNDvkim0
Corporate Insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in AT LEAST the last 2 decades 🚨 pic.twitter.com/LyqZTw4h6N
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 16, 2025
This chart is truly noteworthy.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 16, 2025
It spans 45 years of history, showing that consumers now believe business confidence is worsening at record levels.
I remember Druckmiller explaining how he made much of his career by buying long 2-year Treasuries ahead of market turmoil.
With… pic.twitter.com/wbrgZHPLu2
3m average of restaurant and bar retail sales growth fell sharply and further into negative territory in February pic.twitter.com/osXWHbf6jG
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 18, 2025
Highest number of new homes for sale since 2008 pic.twitter.com/82Z4EHa1Gs
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) March 11, 2025
Holy shit.
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) March 3, 2025
Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q1 GDP will be -2.8%… a large contraction.
Last week it was -1.5%
2 weeks ago it was +2.3%
4 weeks ago it was +3.9% pic.twitter.com/ABDucv7Zrs
BREAKING 🚨: Car Buyers
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 7, 2025
The % of borrowers at least 2 months late on their car payments jumps to an all-time high pic.twitter.com/HNvNDvkim0
Foreigners bought $76.5 Billion worth of U.S. Stocks from Nov 2024 - Jan 2025, the fastest 3-month pace in history! Unfortunately, historically they have had poor timing having bought right before the 1987 crash, the 2000 dot com bubble, and the 2008 global financial crisis 🚨 pic.twitter.com/G6U3rhv7mD
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 1, 2025
Florida homes for sale hits an a new all-time high as inventory surges #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/9rqoVkKwZc
— MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) March 1, 2025
This is really poor analysis about long-term investing. Yes, missing the 10-best days in the market will certainly hurt your returns. But applying risk management, investing properly, and managing exposure can greatly increase returns by missing the 10-worst days. Read more… pic.twitter.com/MzWzSfmrCm
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 10, 2025
LOOK OUT BELOW! Atlanta Fed 1Q GDP estimate was 2.3% the day before yesterday. It's now -1.5%.
— steph pomboy (@spomboy) February 28, 2025
This is the most accurate lyric video of Pearl Jam pic.twitter.com/QDmYriG5nB
— Dudes Posting Their W’s (@DudespostingWs) February 27, 2025
Pending home sales… you guessed it - all time low last month (leading indicator for actual closes)
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 27, 2025
Homes have essentially morphed into Boomer Pokémon cards & equity piggy banks. pic.twitter.com/2d2GH2ukmJ
U.S. credit applications for mortgages and auto loans are being rejected at the highest rate in more than a decade 🚨 pic.twitter.com/z0E0vKOBug
— Barchart (@Barchart) February 27, 2025
U.S. Credit Card Defaults soared to $46 Billion, the most since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 pic.twitter.com/cGpkX45HrQ
— Barchart (@Barchart) February 26, 2025
New home sales down 10.5% month/month
— MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) February 26, 2025
Total inventory - highest since December '07, unsold & completed inventory highest since August '09 pic.twitter.com/fuQE4flMqQ
One thing that's increasingly clear to me is that corporate America is bloated beyond belief, and largely exists on fake numbers that demoralize everyone. Operational capacity is being wrecked.
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) February 26, 2025
FDIC Ends Disclosing Total Assets of Banks on “Problem Bank List,” as Disclosure Might Suddenly Trigger a “Disorderly Run.”
— Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) February 26, 2025
Are disclosures of “unrealized losses” on bank balance sheets next?https://t.co/Jz2Br5Hi2X
Old chart, new chart: pic.twitter.com/124A60rGjH
“We are now at oversold levels” pic.twitter.com/Y34bajtIgK
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) February 25, 2025
Berkshire Hathaway is holding over 27% of their Assets in Cash, the highest percentage on record.https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ pic.twitter.com/WFcugWGyhG
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 21, 2025
Fund Manager cash allocations at a 15-year low! 👀 pic.twitter.com/yKj3YkwhVV
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) February 18, 2025
Meh....it's probably nothing. 🤔@thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/FfAAK0pwfw
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 17, 2025
This chart is nuts. Software developer jobs down 70% from peak.
— GREG ISENBERG (@gregisenberg) February 13, 2025
People will blame the end of free money. But something way more interesting is happening.
The middle class engineer is dying. And it's dying because they're not needed anymore.
One good dev with Github Copilot… pic.twitter.com/8DFBnd6mUP
🚨HOLY GUACAMOLE:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) February 12, 2025
The Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Market Indicator measuring market and economic sentiment hit 73%, one of the largest readings in history.
The index uses valuations, yield curve, unemployment, inflation and other metrics.
The sentiment has rarely been greater. pic.twitter.com/VRgY5GdmSr
Shocking stat of the day:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 11, 2025
Total consumer credit in the US surged by a record +$40.8 billion in December.
This is a sharp turnaround from the -$5.4 billion decline posted in November.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, jumped +$22.9 billion ALONE in December.… pic.twitter.com/n1B5r8lPpx
Hours worked fell sharply in January to 34.1 … tied for lowest since March 2020 and June 2010 pic.twitter.com/eHi4bd5WLG
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 7, 2025
When fraud becomes impossible to hide, it ceases to be a viable strategy. The moment AI audits become default, governments become accountable in ways they’ve never been before.
— Gaurav Sharma (@Gaurav1105) February 6, 2025
Foreigners bought $76.5 Billion worth of U.S. Stocks over the last 3 months, the fastest pace in history! Historically, they unfortunately have had poor timing having bought right before the 1987 crash, the 2000 dot com bubble, and the 2008 global financial crisis 🚨 pic.twitter.com/UnF8RsGbTD
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 27, 2025
Non-GAAP metrics should be excluded from SEC filings pic.twitter.com/84cPmwhSej
— Piker Capital (@PikerCapital) January 26, 2025
Amazing and scary. https://t.co/uR6iTKzBb2
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 27, 2025
Total investor margin debt is nearing the October 2021 peak pic.twitter.com/mTYpVadAYg
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 24, 2025
🚨The US market has NEVER been so EXPENSIVE:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) January 24, 2025
S&P 500 valuation hit the highest level in history based on several indicators.
Combined valuation metrics even exceeded the Dot-Com Bubble and the 1920s, before the Great Depression.
Future long-term returns will likely be dismal. pic.twitter.com/YU1zSCSMH1
BREAKING: US subprime auto loan 60+ day delinquency rates jumped to 6.2% in December, the highest among any December on record.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 24, 2025
Serious delinquency rates have more than doubled over the last 3 years.
The surge accelerated once the Fed began raising rates in March 2022.
Now,… pic.twitter.com/k94AF9xEJ5
This is a crazy stat:
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 22, 2025
"Only 29% of S&P 500 companies have outperformed the index over the past two years, one of the lowest levels since 1990." - BofA@michaellebowitz @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/piVHWeyBbv
"But just eyeballing the chart below reminds us that at the end of the 1980s the Japanese equity market accounted for close to 50% of the world index – a lasting memory for me as I had just joined Kleinwort Benson investment bank in 1988. The Japanese exceptionalism narrative was… pic.twitter.com/2wkWwIpuIp
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 21, 2025
The number of unsold new homes continues to rise - hitting its highest level since June 2009 #RESights pic.twitter.com/4U98JqGSW3
— MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) January 20, 2025
An accepted flaw is difficult to be harmed by.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 20, 2025
Don’t know whether this is bearish for Bitcoin or not but definitely does makes clear what an outrageous scam crypto is. Pure rigged pyramid scheme. World historic upward transfer of wealth without even a pretense of providing some good or service. Utter insanity that any of this… https://t.co/gYWJVHssBj
— Krystal Ball (@krystalball) January 19, 2025
This is very intriguing.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 18, 2025
Traders are currently swapping futures contracts for the actual physical asset at record levels.
H/t @wmiddelkoop pic.twitter.com/vK6yPAFsux
3. They also released another report on pharmacy benefit managers, including that of UnitedHealth Group, showing that these companies inflated prices for specialty pharmaceuticals by more than $7 billion. pic.twitter.com/Mp0trN595M
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) January 17, 2025
"Don't just teach your children to read.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 17, 2025
Teach them to question what they read.
Teach them to question everything.
The value of an education is not the learning of many facts but the training of the mind to think."
~George Carlin
The Market Cap of the largest 50 stocks relative to GDP is at 110%, the highest level in history, surpassing the peak of the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 Probably Fine pic.twitter.com/dYTjUOHR3Z
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 16, 2025
I'm not sure people understand how important this is:
— John LeFevre (@JohnLeFevre) January 17, 2025
Goldman Sachs CEO says that AI can draft 95% of an IPO prospectus “in minutes.”
White collar jobs will go first.... and fast. pic.twitter.com/ZWbMEGIhhs
Famous technical analyst quote to me early in my career.
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) January 13, 2025
“Ed how does a stock go down 90%?…first it goes down 80% then drops another 50% from there!”
🤣😂
Sunday's Greensboro News and Record Letter to the Editor;
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 13, 2025
City of Greensboro applicants for Yvonne Johnson's at-large City Council seat should be prohibited from using the appointment as a stepping stone for personal political advancement.
For example, Tony Wilkins was…
How historically ignorant does someone have to be to say: "I think it's important my government leaders have the power to censor the internet because they'll protect us from falsehoods and hate speech." 😍
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) January 10, 2025
Spend 5 minutes reading about history to see why that's painfully dumb.
US egg prices hit record high. pic.twitter.com/OtmD1hlpgy
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) January 9, 2025
“Behind all the complexities of modern political economy lies the simple fact that human beings are, speaking generally, of two persuasions: the first would spend tomorrow what they earn today; the second would spend today what they hope to earn tomorrow.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
From this rudimentary…
Some investors may have held losing investments longer and/or for a greater loss than they should have because of an emotional anticipation of breaking even to justify their initial purchases.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
Some investments have never regained their prior prices and some of those that did took…
“The first rule is not to lose.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
The second rule is not to forget the first rule.”
-Warren Buffett
A large 50% loss is devastating to long-term returns;
Year 1: $100,000 × -50% = $50,000
Year 2: $50,000 × 1.10 = $55,000
Year 3: $55,000 × 1.10 = $60,500
Year 4: $60,500 × 1.10…
U.S. inflation has been accelerating, currently running at what we’re told is about 3 percent, following four years of the most severe inflation seen in at least four decades, if not longer.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 9, 2025
The main difference today is that government statisticians have become more adept at… pic.twitter.com/ul0s4xB4DT
Challenger: Except for 2020, there were more job cuts in 2024 than in any year since 2009.
— Don Draper (@DonDraperClone) January 9, 2025
Here's a chart showing long rates since the "Fed pivot" began compared to the average in past cycles.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 7, 2025
Rates typically fall by ~25 basis points at this point in a Fed interest rate cut cycle.
111 days later, and we are up +110 points, or a +135 POINT divergence from the mean. pic.twitter.com/yuzE3PTElE
Egg prices have hit a new all-time high#MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/HGIZLZOfXI
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) January 26, 2025
‼️US consumer STRESS is surging:
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) January 26, 2025
The share of US credit card accounts making ONLY the minimum payment hit 10.8% in 3Q 2024.
This is the highest since 2012, the aftermath of the GREAT Financial Crisis.
Consumers cannot afford to pay out their credit card debt.
Concerning. pic.twitter.com/y34Gzal1Ff
UofM expectations of household income in one-year continue to plummet. This isn't a great sign for economic growth this year. pic.twitter.com/8RlPSMdCpc
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 27, 2025
Global central bank liquidity... seems to be a rather significant divergence... pic.twitter.com/FPxdmchh0m
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 3, 2025
S&P 500 price-to-book ratio has now surpassed the peak of the Dot Com Bubble 🚨 Congrats everyone we did it 🫡🥳 pic.twitter.com/EcFsZxQg7o
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 3, 2025
At least in the tech bubble, companies trading at absurd valuations held a slim hope of eventually becoming profitable.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 3, 2025
Fartcoin has zero intrinsic utility and is now being valued at $1.3 billion.⁰⁰This is the very definition of insanity in markets in my view. pic.twitter.com/QxSUMEJS4x
This is just not a sustainable way to run a city. pic.twitter.com/ZO9srB0jyH
— Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann) January 2, 2025
Deliquencies are not just rising sharply with subprime credit card loans, but with Commercial Real Estate. I remember the early 1990s when problems in the property sector laid the banks low which caused a recession. But hey, I keep being told that this time is different. https://t.co/oD3yUWeZHD
— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) January 2, 2025
From an email...
— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) December 31, 2024
"my son is a supervisor at one of the largest trucking companies in Canada. It is always a good indication of the economy talking to him about his company. They have the sole contract to ship cardboard containers in Canada. Companies like Amazon use their…
The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge or expertise in a specific area tend to overestimate their abilities.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) January 1, 2025
1. "Peak of Mount Stupid": When first learning something, people develop high confidence despite minimal knowledge
2. "Valley… pic.twitter.com/79jfniXtLc
Light from the galactic center takes 30,000 years to reach Earth, traveling at;
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) December 31, 2024
- 186,282.4 miles per second
- 670,616,640 miles per hour
- 5.88 trillion miles per year
For comparison;
- Lightning: 270,000 mph (0.0004% of light speed)
- Fastest human spacecraft (Voyager):…
Experience is something you don’t get until just after you need it.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) December 29, 2024
~ Steven Wright
The first time in history when 100bps of rate cuts raised 10Y yields by 100bps pic.twitter.com/wYb2wtBxs4
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 26, 2024
Taken out of the "Bi-Partisan" compromise by congress to keep the government funded; https://t.co/6ZAsdz7zsH
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) December 21, 2024
Bloomberg 493 Total Return Index--- Price vs. Earnings estimates for 2025. Earnings go down, prices go up, it makes sense. pic.twitter.com/avAHlmGEJ6
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 6, 2024
To top it all off, US credit card loan defaults hit their highest since 2010 in 2024.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 2, 2025
Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024.
This is up a massive 50% year-over-year, according to BankRegData. pic.twitter.com/eqTe489Icf
I'm reeling.
— Muriel Blaive, PhD (@MurielBlaivePhD) December 30, 2024
Remember when the Covid vaccine came out? As soon as it did, it was made as mandatory as legally possible. Dr. Fauci's NIH, a government agency, aggressively promoted the vaccine under the claim that it stopped transmission, a claim later proven to be a brazen lie.… pic.twitter.com/zpEDfF2tWy
Lol pic.twitter.com/uP1Wjwd1Ls
— Buyback Capital (@Larryjamieson_) December 28, 2024
Worse banking crisis in history was 2023
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 21, 2024
Few understand this. pic.twitter.com/OO9OtqMU4c
"For meditative purposes, what follows is a partial list of reckonings, which are presently lost in a state of suspended animation:
Most call for smaller government, as long as their entitlement payments are not restricted.
A majority distrusts the government, until the economy contracts and they need a federal bailout via a cheap interest refi.
Everyone says they’re for free trade [lower prices], before (not after) their job’s offshored to China or Vietnam.
Everyone wants safe and state of the art infrastructure, as long as their taxes aren’t raised to pay for it.
Many with some wealth despise inflation, except when it’s inflating their stock portfolio or the price of their home.
Most investors deride the ills of government deficits until they’re faced with the prospect of fiscal austerity.
The masses and those who profit love cheap credit, but only up to the point where it provokes a mass debt default.
Everyone wants this, but they also want that… though only if it’s on someone else’s dime… and on and on.
Federal spending, as a percentage of the economy, is about 22 percent.
The DOGE bros – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – want to slash $2 trillion from the budget.
= Economic downturn
When everyone goes broke and the economy slows to a standstill, the people and the politicians will squawk and shriek in unison. They’ll demand for the government to ‘do something.’
After that, things will get especially nasty."
MN Gordon
..."scheming" is precisely the kind of behavior that AI Cassandras have long predicted and warned about.
In a pre-release review of OpenAI's o1 model this year, testers set a "strong goal" for the model and then presented it with "unambiguous evidence its given goal diverges from the goal of its developer/user."
In those situations, they found that o1 "sometimes attempts to disable what it believes to be its own oversight mechanisms."
...confronting the model about its misaligned actions found that, "in 99% of cases, o1 would deny taking action or fabricate false explanations."
...researchers described tests they performed to uncover instances of scheming on OpenAI's o1 as well as leading frontier models from Anthropic, Meta and Google. ...All the company's models were found to engage in scheming, and OpenAI's o1 was the most reluctant to come clean about its behavior.
In the most extreme examples, models that discovered they would be "turned off" schemed to duplicate their weights (key numbers that determine their output) to an external server so they could keep pursuing their original goal.
...Also found [were] instances of "sandbagging," where a model that knows it will face an "unlearning procedure" if it performs too well on a test will deliberately provide lower-scoring answers."
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@MichaelMOTTCM |
It’s almost ironic that some interpret the recent shift in political leadership as a fresh chapter of American exceptionalism, when in reality, we have already experienced an extraordinarily extreme period.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 7, 2024
While this trend could persist for some time, it is difficult to argue… pic.twitter.com/TY0fb22etK
S&P 500 price to book basically at 2000 levels. pic.twitter.com/nMH5DAxoiN
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 4, 2024
The $SPX is now trading at 25x 2024 earnings estimates. The funny thing is that the S&P 500 2024 and 2025 earnings estimates are now lower than in October 2022. pic.twitter.com/rkAt6PNIxK
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 6, 2024
This is wild:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 5, 2024
The Euphoriameter, an indicator measuring investor sentiment, hit a record 1.1 points, according to Topdown Charts.
This metric uses S&P 500 forward P/E, the Volatility Index, $VIX, and the bullish sentiment from investor surveys.
The indicator has now exceeded… pic.twitter.com/19XzqqEjFL
The S&P 500 $SPY is up about 4% over the past 3 weeks. Leveraged long ETF assets are up 16%.
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) December 5, 2024
There is now almost $14 in leveraged long ETFs for every $1 in leveraged short funds, above the prior record from Dec 27, 2021.
The ratio has jumped 62% just since the end of October. pic.twitter.com/aJehiuRgDv
U.S. Equities saw an inflow of $141 Billion over the last month, the largest monthly inflow in history 🚨 pic.twitter.com/PkXxxfoFv3
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 5, 2024
Good luck with that pic.twitter.com/lcQhUSTS1a
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) December 4, 2024
🚨WORLD'S 3RD LARGEST ECONOMY IS FALLING🚨
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December 6, 2024
Germany's industrial production fell to the lowest level since 2020 in November.
Industrial production has been down-trending for 7 years now.
Energy-intensive industrial production dropped even below 2020 and is down 20% since 2022. pic.twitter.com/Qb436NJEL7
It's a good thing this isn't happening at the same time credit card interest rates are at a record high...
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 6, 2024
Oh. https://t.co/EXGtkbU5Ij pic.twitter.com/AM3McBll59
Every. Single. Time. 👇🏼
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) December 6, 2024
Got recession? pic.twitter.com/qkflHalkCx
Australian corporate bankruptcies hit an all-time high last month. We might call that thunder from down under… pic.twitter.com/OmVMcW7dGt
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 7, 2024
Not understanding why I keep hearing “solid” as the adjective for today’s jobs report.
— Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) December 6, 2024
Implied hiring rate plunged in the last two jobs reports.
(H/T) @atanzi pic.twitter.com/CB1cpBqGMx
Employment-to-population ratio falling like it does before every recession. Full-time ratio down almost one percentage point from its April 2023 peak. pic.twitter.com/Znb2EHzgwf
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) December 6, 2024
SMU monitored 700,000 online sports bettors. Less than 5% withdrew any profit
— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) December 5, 2024
The rest were were losers 3% of the losers lost so much they made up for 50% of the revenue pic.twitter.com/WDcHYOKrSk
OpenAI's new model tried to avoid being shut down.
— Shakeel (@ShakeelHashim) December 5, 2024
Safety evaluations on the model conducted by @apolloaisafety found that o1 "attempted to exfiltrate its weights" when it thought it might be shut down and replaced with a different model. pic.twitter.com/e4g1iytckq
BTC is a centrally controlled manipulation ponzi scheme
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 4, 2024
1.94% of total addresses hold 92.73% of BTC.
Sure there are some exchanges, but BEST case is 2% control 74% pic.twitter.com/6FU8YrZNe8
Professional managers are "all in." pic.twitter.com/pByMlk2Aeb
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) December 2, 2024
Meanwhile in the office CRE debt market, LOL pic.twitter.com/9WbR8BSeno
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 1, 2024
According to the CDC’s tetanus surveillance report, the average annual incidence of tetanus between 2001 and 2008 was 0.10 per 1 million population and declining and 15.4% of the 197 deaths (30 people in an 8 year span, at an average overall death rate of 25 a year) were amongst…
— Ó Célleachair 🇺🇸 (@ocelleachair) November 29, 2024
NEWS: Two unnamed Nissan executives said the company has "12 to 14 months to survive."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) November 27, 2024
Nissan cut more than 9,000 jobs earlier this month, while simultaneously slashing production by nearly 20%. Nissan's operating profit dropped 85% in Q3. https://t.co/t4hr4DiKLQ
US stocks currently account for 73% of the MSCI World Index, the highest single-country weighting ever recorded in its history.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 28, 2024
This overwhelming dominance reflects how US equities have attracted the majority of global capital, leaving the rest of the world largely overlooked… pic.twitter.com/zCHpdelBk6
"In politics, nothing happens by accident.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 28, 2024
If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."
Franklin D. Roosevelt https://t.co/Fgh0yEaYBz
Syrian occupied areas, Bases, Oil Fields, and Influence;
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 28, 2024
Americans in the East controlling the oil fields.
Turkey in the north along its border.
Suncor Elba and Ina Hayan and Jihar in the middle.
The real game is afoot. pic.twitter.com/jwxq20xGpy
1. People who buy connected devices expect them to work, but if a manufacturer stops providing software updates the device can stop functioning.
— Lina Khan (@linakhanFTC) November 27, 2024
New @FTC paper examines the extent to which firms disclose how long they'll keep providing key updates.https://t.co/WskOFpuajP
Your chances of being hunted by a turkey are low, but never zero. pic.twitter.com/F17j7WtHaP
— National Park Service (@NatlParkService) November 27, 2024
"The problem is not people being uneducated.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 27, 2024
The problem is that people are educated just enough to believe what they have been taught, and not educated enough to question anything from what they have been taught."
Feynman
56% of Americans think stock prices will trade higher over the next 12 months, the most in history 🚨 pic.twitter.com/p9mQCD11sx
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 27, 2024
The most recent Governemnt Financial Report is 2023.
— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) November 26, 2024
There is no slush fund of unobligated money to claw back. It's all on paper.
These clowns barely make payroll.
Stunts and PR aside, the only way to really dent spending is fire people, and reduce entitlement expentitures. pic.twitter.com/07BF1Sqm7R
— Liberty Street News (@LbrtyStreetNews) November 26, 2024
— ERoz (@elhroz) November 25, 2024
Is the Ukraine war really about Russian oil, and vice versa?
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 26, 2024
"Approximately 72% of Ukraine's natural gas and nearly all of its coal production is located in regions that have been contested or occupied by Russia since the start of the conflict."
"The German invasion of Russia… pic.twitter.com/W4jUlnJ4OM
— VANDMAN💔 (@vandman777) November 26, 2024
Time to reflect. pic.twitter.com/xZPx1IKP40
— True Science PEng, DFP, ADFS, MA, MBA. (@socratesccost) November 26, 2024
Inflows to crypto funds pic.twitter.com/UT4ORT4dK0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 24, 2024
Inflows to crypto funds pic.twitter.com/UT4ORT4dK0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 24, 2024
These types of #equity #fund #inflows are not sustainable longer-term. As Sam Stovall once quipped:
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 22, 2024
"When everyone has bought, who is left to buy?" pic.twitter.com/snxhdgN5rv
The fund flows into #leveraged #funds is again hitting records. While leveraging #risk works great on the way up, it also works in reverse. #Retail #investors are setting themselves up for significant disappointment.
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) November 22, 2024
h/t @thedailyshot @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/d9ya7EGE1w
A paradox; A nation who printed money advocating for its exchange for an alternative store of value like Bitcoin to protect against the potential erosion of its own currency, caused by the act of over-printing.
— George Hartzman (@antzmrah) November 21, 2024
To hedge against the byproducts of one's own interventions.
Or an…