There’s been some suggestions that the payrolls report
had been distorted by the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics
accounts for business births and deaths
There’s been talk that the birth/death model
a little-noted detail in the monthly report
came in with a huge statistical discrepancy for this month
effectively adding as many as 220,000 jobs to the reading
In a conference call with reporters, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis
...insisted the BLS number was correct
and that no changes would be needed
Market Reaction Hints At False Note In Jobs Report
What is the likelihood
that the Bureau of Labor Statistics Birth/Death adjustment
which guesstimates employment at new businesses
added 220,000 hypothetical jobs in May 2009
including 43,000 new construction positions
as new small business loan availability cratered
77,000 in Leisure and Hospitality jobs
as hotel occupancy hit new lows
and 7,000 Financial Services positions
if 174,000 jobs were estimated in May 2008?
Is it conceivable
that the US created more construction and leisure/hospitality jobs
in April and May of 2009
than in April & May of 2002, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 2008
considering current economic circumstances?
2 comments:
Our dear George, I do not understand the data. All I know is that our Son in VA., is busy as a structural engineer. Work needed before construction begins.
Looks like some of the manipulations that we have seen in the cost of living index adjustments that we have seen in the past....
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